All in a day's work

Loans to Greece thus far.

2010-05-09T13:14:00.002+08:00

Who are the Lenders to Greece to prevent a domino effect.
See below. Staggering amounts.
Singapore's GDP for 2008 was $182B, which is about $102B.

IMF - up to 30 billion euros

GERMANY - 22.33 billion euros. (Separately, Germany's financial sector will contribute 8.1 billion euros ($10.87 billion) over three years, include Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), insurer Allianz (ALVG.DE) and Munich RE MUNVGn.DE)

FRANCE - 16.77 billion euros

ITALY - 14.74 billion euros

SPAIN - 9.79 billion euros

NETHERLANDS - 4.7 billion euros.

BELGIUM - 2.86 billion euros

AUSTRIA - 2.29 billion

PORTUGAL - 2.06 billion euros

FINLAND - 1.48 billion euros

IRELAND - 1.31 billion euros

SLOVAKIA - 820 million euros

SLOVENIA - 390 million euros

LUXEMBOURG - 210 million euros.

CYPRUS - 160 million euros

MALTA - 70 million euros

RMB Revaled - Impact Part 3

2010-04-25T11:26:00.002+08:00

Please read prior posts.

My idiot proof view.

BUY!

Only if you have a long term horizon.
Consider ICBC, not money changers and under your pillows.

RMB Revaled - Impact Part 2

2010-04-25T11:23:00.003+08:00

Earlier, I've provided an article that is for the revaluation.

Now read this, by Yasheng Huang is professor of political economy and international management at Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is the author of “Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics.” which also makes sense.

Many of the criticisms of the Chinese exchange rate policy are quite sensible, especially those that identify other developing countries as bearing some of the burdens of the Chinese policy (mostly in the form of forgone export opportunities).

But I think advocates for a stronger renminbi have exaggerated the benefits of such a move for other developing countries and may have under-estimated some of the risks for China.

The benefits of a revaluation on other developing countries will not be instantaneous. It took China 10 to 15 years to build its powerful export clusters in the coastal regions and that was already considered as a supersonic speed. Adjusting China’s exchange rate, while moving things in the right direction, is not going to solve the immediate challenge of jump-starting growth during this round of global recession.

For China itself, the calculation is quite complicated. In the medium term (3 to 5 years), China needs to have more flexibility in its exchange rate policy. It is important to emphasize that it is not only the revaluation per se that matters; how it’s done also matters.

The most likely policy course is to allow a gradual, controlled rise of the currency value against the U.S. dollar. China did this between 2005 and 2008 and all the indications suggest that they may do it that way again.

But such a policy course has risks. The market consensus is that the renminbi is undervalued by 30 to 40 percent (whether this is accurate or not is irrelevant.) Thus an appreciation by 5 or 6 percent will first tell the speculators that the currency policy is now flexible and will leave them to believe that they still have much to gain by investing in renminbi-dominated assets today.

What are those assets? Mostly real estate. China is already in the middle of a huge real estate bubble. A gradual exchange rate adjustment will make it worse — and thus will make its eventual bursting even more of a calamity.

So why not move the exchange rate all the way to the market consensus level to kill the speculative expectations? This gets to some of the fundamental fragilities of the Chinese economy and I believe that this is the foremost concern in the minds of the Chinese policy makers.

Chinese export growth is labor intensive but its G.D.P. growth is capital-intensive. In the last 10 years and in 2009 in particular, Chinese G.D.P. growth has been powered by massive investments that are financed by off-budget debt of local governments.

This kind of growth gives you good economic numbers (which then invite all these criticisms of the renminbi policy) but it does not give you the things that truly matter — such as jobs and decent income growth for average Chinese.

Those export factories, which many think of as dreary sweatshops, are sources of decent income for millions; some estimates suggest that almost 100 million rural Chinese work in coastal provinces and many of them are employed in those factories. If the exchange rate is revalued by 40 percent overnight, many of those export factories will go bankrupt. That will be very unpleasant, economically, socially and politically.

This is not to argue that keeping the renminbi value artificially low is a good policy, only that the policy priority is elsewhere. China should start immediately reducing what in effect is a huge capital subsidy given to the state sector and using the money to improve the income of Chinese households.

This is the only way to rein in local government investments. There will be some unemployment but this will be better than bankrupting the export sector. China should also start de-regulation and urban reforms that will encourage the growth of its service sector (which is now abnormally small) so that job creation doesn’t fall disproportionately on the export sector.

The third priority, I believe, is to reform the currency system. Even if exchange rate flexibility is a desirable goal, what’s important is that it be carried out in the right sequence.

RMB Revalued - Impact?

2010-04-25T11:08:00.002+08:00

If some of you are still unaware of this shift in currency, it's about time.

The Chinese Currency, also know as Renminbi (RMB), is under pressure to revalue itself inthis period of time, before June 30. Is this a good or bad thing to China, is up to debate.

I've quoted a post by Eswar Prasad is a professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China Division. I thought he pointed out some good issues.

A shift in China’s currency policy is not a panacea for imbalances in either the Chinese or U.S. economies, but it puts in place an important piece to a complex jigsaw puzzle.

The immediate benefit of a modest currency adjustment is that it will cool off some of the overheated rhetoric in China and the U.S., allowing the nations to focus on important economic and strategic issues rather than getting into petty trade disputes.

A modest appreciation of the renminbi will not by itself wipe out America’s trade deficit or China’s trade surplus. But if this move generates momentum towards a more flexible exchange rate, it could help achieve some important objectives. Chinese officials speak of banking reforms as a key priority and consider their huge trade surplus a structural problem having nothing to do with currency policy. There is, in fact, a deep connection between these issues.

Banks still dominate China’s financial system. Chinese banks must learn to respond to price signals rather than government directives about how much to lend and to whom. The central bank needs tools to convey those signals by changing interest rates as needed to cool down or stimulate credit growth.

Without an independent interest rate policy to guide them, banks will remain handmaidens of local government bureaucrats who want to pump up growth at any cost. This also has the unfortunate effect of keeping bank lending going mainly to politically well-connected large state enterprises rather than dynamic small and medium-sized firms that are more effective at generating jobs. This tilts the economy even more towards dependence on investment and exports to sustain growth.

The government’s desire to maintain a stable exchange rate relative to the dollar means that China is effectively importing U.S. monetary policy, constraining short-term policies and hampering longer-term adjustment.

For instance, even though U.S. interest rates are likely to remain low as the economy here is still weak, China really ought to raise interest rates now to help cool off bank credit expansion, prick incipient asset price bubbles and reduce the risks of inflation.

A flexible exchange rate would allow China to run a monetary policy better suited to its own economic circumstances. This, in turn, would facilitate banking reforms and help to shift credit flows towards private sector firms — both in manufacturing and services — that can generate more jobs.

And a currency appreciation would increase the purchasing power of Chinese households as imports become cheaper. This would boost household consumption, making the Chinese economy more balanced and less dependent on exports or investment.

These changes will ultimately be good for China itself and the U.S., with China able to take in more imports from the U.S. and the rest of the world. A more balanced pattern of growth in China will also aid the global rebalancing effort by creating room for other emerging market economies to allow their currencies to appreciate without fear of losing competitiveness to China.

Diamonds, Precious Diamonds - Tiffany & Co

2009-07-07T22:09:00.002+08:00

In a different economy, Billy Mitchell and Nicole Drucker of San Francisco might have splurged on a $10,000 engagement ring. But Ms. Drucker is out of work and they need to save for a house. So in April, Mr. Mitchell got down on one knee on the Golden Gate Bridge and proposed with a $4,000 diamond ring he had bought on the Internet.

“We had to decide, where do we want the money?” Mr. Mitchell said. “On her finger?”

In this economy, many consumers would rather keep their money in their wallets than on their fingers, necks or ears. As people re-examine their budgets, jewelry is turning out to be one of the easiest places to cut back — or trade down.

“The half-carat is the new three-carat,” explained Hayley Corwick, who writes under the pseudonym Lila Delilah for Madison Avenue Spy, a blog about designer sales.

Yet the understandable penny-pinching by consumers is putting a painful squeeze on the jewelry industry.

The new frugality has forced diamond mines to curtail production, led to deep discounting at jewelry chains, spurred hundreds of store closings and resulted in job cuts at boutiques and department stores. Because jewelry is expensive inventory that moves slowly even in better economic times, many stores are laden with debt — even though wholesale global prices of polished diamonds were down 15.4 percent in June compared with a year earlier.

Experts say that when the shakeout is over, far fewer jewelers will be left standing. About 20 percent more American jewelers will go out of business this year than did last year, according to Kenneth Gassman, president of the Jewelry Industry Research Institute, an independent research practice.

The jewelry chains that have filed for bankruptcy in the last year or so include Fortunoff, Whitehall Jewelers, Friedman’s, Christian Bernard and Ultra Stores (which operated jewelry departments inside Filene’s Basement and other chains).

Still in business but posting losses, meanwhile, are big jewelry chains, both high end and low — from Harry Winston and Bulgari to Zales and Claire’s Stores.

And while the venerable Tiffany & Company is still making money, sales have dropped 34 percent at its stores in this country that have been open at least a year.

Major mass-market retailers including Wal-Mart, J. C. Penney, BJ’s Wholesale Club and Costco have cited jewelry as one of their worst-performing categories this year. Even online jewelry and watch sales are down, declining 7 percent in the first quarter, according to the Web analysis firm comScore.

“You’re seeing the traffic fall off a cliff at all price points,” said Stacey Widlitz, a retailing analyst with Pali Research.

Of the consumers still buying jewelry, many are trading down. Blue Nile, the giant online jeweler, said some people were opting for less costly engagement rings made of semiprecious stones instead of diamonds.

And yet, sales of diamond rings and wedding bands seem to be holding up better than for other kinds of jewelry. Retailers and analysts say a decent engagement ring is still seen as a necessity for men hoping to get a yes to a marriage proposal.

Even Mr. Mitchell, of San Francisco, who knew the outcome because his fiancée had collaborated in the planning, considered the ring to be “hugely” important. And he spent hours learning about diamonds on BlueNile.com. But “we knew that we only wanted to spend so much,” he said, “and this Web site really enabled you to get the best diamond for the dollar.”

Many consumers still intent on expanding their jewelry collections are now doing so with costume and vintage pieces instead of new, fine jewelry.

Megan Wishnow of Long Island City, Queens, trolls eBay for pieces. “It’s become a little bit gauche in a way to walk around, to flaunt, whether you have it or not,” said Ms. Wishnow, who sells vintage clothes on the Web after years of working in public relations for high-end fashion brands like Gucci. “I think women are definitely more conscious of how they come off. And everyone wants to be respectful of what’s going on, especially in New York City.”

Instead of buying jewels, some people are even renting them by the week or month for glamorous events or for gallivanting around town, as one might do in a leased Mercedes. At Avelle, an online rental site for swanky goods, more and more consumers are signing up to rent jewelry by the likes of Chanel and Louis Vuitton, resulting in double-digit year-over-year growth in jewelry rentals, according to the company’s senior vice president of product management, Dana Palzkill.

Some bargain hunters have taken to haggling — even at Tiffany. After all, consumers are loath to overpay in a down market.

“I think everyone feels compelled to ask the question for fear of being, feeling foolish after the fact,” Michael J. Kowalski, chairman and chief executive of Tiffany, said last month at a Thomson Reuters luxury and retail industry conference in New York.

Tiffany has lowered prices on diamond engagement rings, a core part of its business, by about 10 percent since the holiday season.

“We’re not going to discount or run short-term sales,” Mark L. Aaron, vice president for investor relations at Tiffany, said in a telephone interview. “We’re simply going to take a little bit less gross margin in the engagement category. It was our gesture to a young couple. We just made it a little bit more affordable.”

Tiffany hopes it is laying the groundwork for a lifelong relationship with the newly betrothed.

Not surprisingly, the more expensive the jewelry, the greater the sales declines in the last year. In Tiffany’s most recent reporting period, sales of jewelry above $50,000 were softest.

Even selling midpriced jewelry has been brutal for chains because the market is awash in marked-down goods from so many liquidation sales. “This is forcing luxury players to make one of two decisions,” said Ms. Widlitz of Pali Research. “You either chase the consumer downstream or you stay the course. Tiffany is staying the course.”

As a result, Tiffany is among the jewelers expected to gain market share amid the industry shakeout.

“Tiffany has the balance sheet to really withstand a prolonged period of weakened demand,” said Bob Drbul, a retailing analyst with Barclays Capital who tracks the company. The company’s stock price peaked around $56 in autumn 2007 and fell to about $17 this March before rebounding. The shares closed Monday at $24.70, up 41 cents.

To weather the recession, many chains are slowing new store growth and making cuts to capital expenditures, inventory and their advertising budgets. Harry Winston, Tiffany, Zales and De Beers have collectively cut hundreds of jobs.

In February, Finlay Enterprises — a major operator of licensed fine jewelry counters in department stores like Macy’s, Dillard’s and Lord & Taylor — said it would exit the department store business and close about 40 of its approximately 100 specialty jewelry stores, which include Bailey, Banks & Biddle.

For the retailers the good news, relatively speaking, is that the chains say the rate of deceleration has slowed in the last three months. No one is declaring a recovery, or even that the market has reached a bottom. But Tiffany, which has been selling its signature six-pronged diamond solitaire engagement rings through booms and busts since 1886, is confident the sparkle will return once again.

“We’re going through a business cycle,” said Mr. Aaron of Tiffany. “There will eventually again be a rising tide of affluence around the world.”

A recap on the fall from our latest bull

2009-06-11T21:47:00.006+08:00

I will attempt to do a reflection of what happened since our last bull run and the events that occured during this period. For those you who have followed the events closely might find this boring, so just bear with me.

I might take a few posts to complete this series. For those of you who are keen, do check back at this site, for new posts, weekly.

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In the year end of 2008, the credit crunch, threatened to be Wall Street’s biggest crisis since the Great Depression. Hundreds of billions in mortgage-related investments soured and reputable investment banks crumbled.

Borrowings almost went to a stop due to liquidity worries affecting businesses of all sizes.

In response, the FED adopted a $700b Bailout Plan to reassure the market and improve the liquidity but the crisis began to spread to Europe and emerging markets. Governments, all over the world, scrambled to save the economy, guaranteed deposits and came up with a coordinated response.

“The Roots”

The last credit crisis is the burst of the tech bubble of the late 1990’s. Sock market began a steep decline in 2000 and US went into recession the following year and interest rates were sharply in hope to limit the damage.

Due to the lower interest rates, houses became cheaper and demand for homes increased, sending prices up. It also gave homeowners the opportunities to refinance their loans.

Things turned sour when home buyers had to leverage themselves to the max to make a purchase. Defaults began to rise in 2006, but lending/borrowing did not slow. The highly intelligent institutions, Banks and other financial institutions, devised complex financial instruments to distribute and resell the mortgage-backed securities and to hedge against any risks.

“The First Bomb”

The first bomb was when2 hedge funds owned by the MIGHTY Bear Stearns collapse. Foreclosures, in fact, helped speed up the fall of housing prices, and default on mortgages increased.

In a very bold move, the Fed helped in “closing the deal” by selling Bear Sterns to JP Morgan at the initial price of USD $2/share. This amount I think/read/assume should be lower than the price of the Manhattan Office building, Bear Stearns owned.

“The Giants”

In August, stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went into a free fall and the US government got concerned. Well, who won’t when your 2 giants seems to be in a spiral so in Sept, US Treasury, announced it’s taking over.

“It never rains but pours.” In Sept again, talks to salvage Lehman Bro broke down and the news of this investment giant’s collapse sent shockwaves throughout the globe, not only the financial systems. In the same time frame, Merrill Lynch another GIANT, sold itself to Bank of American to avoid bankruptcy. At this point, things became very clear. All hopes seemed lost.

In the same month, American Insurance Group, was thankfully bailed out by FED for $85b, due to it’s exposure in exotic securities. This led to DJI falling a good 500 points and also became an opportunity for traders to bet on a government rescue and made good money out of it.

Such companies which were supposed to be known for it’s capital management intelligence, failed in their own playing field.

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Long story... to be continued.

2009-06-11T21:27:00.000+08:00

General Motors Filing for BANKRUPTCY !!!

2009-06-01T11:51:00.003+08:00

President Obama will push General Motors into bankruptcy protection on Monday, making a risky bet that by temporarily nationalizing the onetime icon of American capitalism, he can save at least a diminished automaker that is competitive.

The company will also have to shed 21,000 union workers and close 12 to 20 factories, steps that most analysts thought could never be pushed through by a Democratic president allied with organized labor.

To assist in the restructuring, the automaker is expected to hire the consulting firm Alix Partners, which has worked on several major bankruptcies, including those for Enron and Kmart. One of the firm’s partners, Al Koch, is expected to manage the liquidation of corporate assets that G.M. will shed during its Chapter 11 restructuring, people with knowledge of the strategy said.

On Monday, Mr. Obama is expected to argue that any alternative to his plan would be worse, and that a liquidation of G.M. — the only other real option — would send the unemployment rate soaring over 10 percent and would radiate damage throughout the economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/business/01auto.html?pagewanted=1

The Champion League Final

2009-05-28T09:43:00.004+08:00

For those who follow my blog post would know that whenever Man Utd is involved in big games, 'll normally post.

This time round, they deserved it.

Woeful passing.

Huge gaps in front of the defence for dribblers like xavi, iniesta and messi to exploit

Attack wise, it's disappointing but credit to Barca's defence, especially Puyol and Pique.

The tactic to field 3 central midfielders to nullify Barca's might have gone wrong in the first half. Too much respect perhaps.. But well oh well.. What's done is done.

Next season perhaps. Ribery? Tosic? More of Rafael and BerBa? A season that's gone pretty good except for the CL, but expectations are there for a reason. Sighhh

Till then....

From the Author of The Intelligent Investor

2009-05-28T09:25:00.002+08:00

Article by Jason Zweig, Author of the Intelligent Investor

It is sometimes said that to be an intelligent investor, you must be unemotional. That isn't true; instead, you should be inversely emotional.

Even after recent turbulence, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up roughly 30% since its low in March. It is natural for you to feel happy or relieved about that. But Benjamin Graham believed, instead, that you should train yourself to feel worried about such events.

At this moment, consulting Mr. Graham's wisdom is especially fitting. Sixty years ago, on May 25, 1949, the founder of financial analysis published his book, "The Intelligent Investor," in whose honor this column is named. And today the market seems to be in just the kind of mood that would have worried Mr. Graham: a jittery optimism, an insecure and almost desperate need to believe that the worst is over.

You can't turn off your feelings, of course. But you can, and should, turn them inside out.

Stocks have suddenly become more expensive to accumulate. Since March, according to data from Robert Shiller of Yale, the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has jumped from 13.1 to 15.5. That's the sharpest, fastest rise in almost a quarter-century. (As Graham suggested, Prof. Shiller uses a 10-year average P/E ratio, adjusted for inflation.)

Over the course of 10 weeks, stocks have moved from the edge of the bargain bin to the full-price rack. So, unless you are retired and living off your investments, you shouldn't be celebrating, you should be worrying.

Mr. Graham worked diligently to resist being swept up in the mood swings of "Mr. Market" -- his metaphor for the collective mind of investors, euphoric when stocks go up and miserable when they go down.

In an autobiographical sketch, Mr. Graham wrote that he "embraced stoicism as a gospel sent to him from heaven." Among the main components of his "internal equipment," he also said, were a "certain aloofness" and "unruffled serenity."

Mr. Graham's last wife described him as "humane, but not human." I asked his son, Benjamin Graham Jr., what that meant. "His mind was elsewhere, and he did have a little difficulty in relating to others," "Buz" Graham said of his father. "He was always internally multitasking. Maybe people who go into investing are especially well-suited for it if they have that distance or detachment."

Mr. Graham's immersion in literature, mathematics and philosophy, he once remarked, helped him view the markets "from the standpoint of eternity, rather than day-to-day."

Perhaps as a result, he almost invariably read the enthusiasm of others as a yellow caution light, and he took their misery as a sign of hope.

His knack for inverting emotions helped him see when markets had run to extremes. In late 1945, as the market was rising 36%, he warned investors to cut back on stocks; the next year, the market fell 8%. As stocks took off in 1958-59, Mr. Graham was again pessimistic; years of jagged returns followed. In late 1971, he counseled caution, just before the worst bear market in decades hit.

In the depths of that crash, near the end of 1974, Mr. Graham gave a speech in which he correctly forecast a period of "many years" in which "stock prices may languish."

Then he startled his listeners by pointing out this was good news, not bad: "The true investor would be pleased, rather than discouraged, at the prospect of investing his new savings on very satisfactory terms." Mr. Graham added a more startling note: Investors would be "enviably fortunate" to benefit from the "advantages" of a long bear market.

Today, it has become trendy to declare that "buy and hold is dead." Some critics regard dollar-cost averaging, or automatically investing a fixed amount every month, as foolish.

Asked if dollar-cost averaging could ensure long-term success, Mr. Graham wrote in 1962: "Such a policy will pay off ultimately, regardless of when it is begun, provided that it is adhered to conscientiously and courageously under all intervening conditions."

For that to be true, however, the dollar-cost averaging investor must "be a different sort of person from the rest of us ... not subject to the alternations of exhilaration and deep gloom that have accompanied the gyrations of the stock market for generations past."

"This," Mr. Graham concluded, "I greatly doubt."

He didn't mean that no one can resist being swept up in the gyrating emotions of the crowd. He meant that few people can. To be an intelligent investor, you must cultivate what Mr. Graham called "firmness of character" -- the ability to keep your own emotional counsel.

Above all, that means resisting the contagion of Mr. Market's enthusiasm when stocks are suddenly no longer cheap.

Credit to: Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/107116/If-You-Think-Worst-Is-Over-Take-Benjamin-Graham's-Advice?mod=retire-planning

Danger! Be careful

2009-05-11T11:33:00.002+08:00

STI is currently near a resistance as seen from the insert and we are now faced with a gap to cover.
Last Friday we had a selling volume, if my chart is right, and a spinning top on resistance.

In my opinion, we are now at another critical level which might decide if this will become a bearish or bullish scenario. For me, as long as Monday did not break out.. it's bad. But to not be so negative, Wednesday should be the latest we will see any movement.

Personally, I'm still in the camp of... we are too optimistic. Ha! I'm sorry.

STI - as of 28th April 2009 - TA and Macro View

2009-04-28T00:28:00.005+08:00

I have a friend who asked me on numerous occasions if I'd regret not deciding to enter any long positions in this recent rally. I have to admit that on numerous occasions, I am very very tempted to say yes, it's the bottom but as you can see from my previous posting, none of it says that I'm bullish in the long term YET. This post is no different.

As you can see from the chart,

1. The green line and arrows are points of resistance and support since 2009.

2. 1950 is still the point to break for STI, which has been tested but not broken.

3. 5d MA, subject to individual opinions, has been broken. (5d MA is a indicator for me for my trading positions. If you do not agree, just ignore this point. It's a personal strategy.)

4. Volume has relatively picked up in recent trading periods.

5. A rebound of 100MA occured.

All these points to a not so bullish rally as YET so for people still holding to positions, just be a little careful with the 100MA and the Green Line. Once broken, it might not look rosy. Just my opinion.

From a broader view,

HOW DOES THE FOLLOWING ISSUES SOUND TO YOU.

1. Job Losses/ Retenchment

2. Coys Closing down / Liquidation / Cashflow Problems

3. GBP Growth

Maybe I'm just pessimistic but..... unless I'm proven otherwise, I won't think that it's the end or rather, it won't drop back to the previous Lows.

History of Dow Jones: Click here

Have we bottom yet: Click here

Just my opinion and do not let it be the reason of your financial decision cause I would not be responsible for any losses or gains that you suffer.

Critics are welcomed.

Why do companies not declare cashflow problems earlier

2009-03-19T22:46:00.005+08:00

Have you ever wondered why do companies always seem to declare liquidity problems only when it's too late?

Why does it seem that when a company declare cashflow problems, it's almost destined to be liquidated?

I will try to give you an alternative view in this area if you are still wondering why the above scenarios seem to happen all the time.

Let's say you are the CEO of a company and sales have reduced significantly but working capital continue to remain the same. This will affect net profit for the year and you might be forced to make the decision to dip into your accumulated reserves, your profits accumulated over the years since incorporation.

This is the first sign of a serious cashflow problem but you might be hoping that this is just a bad patch.

In order to have more cashflow, you decide to borrow some money from the bank so that whenever opportunities arise, the borrowed money can be used to invest in the proposed projects.

If sales do not increase and the margins continue to be squeezed and faced with interest payments, you might have to make the decision to declare that your business is no longer of a going concern.

Think of it this way now.

Your company now owe money to your creditors. Upon knowing that the money owed to them, which of the creditors would not want their money back first.

Once liquidity problem is made public, it'll only hasten the speed of your liquidation, instead of help it.

This is one of the main reasons why companies "SEEM" to collapse OVERNIGHT.

Technical Analysis on Dow Jones 14 March 2009

2009-03-14T12:35:00.003+08:00

The last time I shared my opinion on a bottom is on 7th Jan 09 when Dow Jones seems to break a resistance of 8900. But in that post I did not refer to the charts. To read about my previous post, click here

However, this time round, I'd still see this as a potential rally but not the end of the bear run.

I've used arrows to indicate technical support formed in recent times and highlight the levels with a horizontal line, as you can see from the chart. This time round, I am in the opinion that we should have the "strength" to test 7,500 again, the resistance line formed since Aug 08, a breach of this resistance line would then lead me to rethink abt a sustained rally. Previously, a rally don't last longer than a week, 7 days and at this current time, we have about 3 days left.

I've removed all indicators in my analysis as I think indicators do not work in the current market. The tracking of the change in sentiments by indicators is too slow, in a way. Nevertheless, I do hope that most of you saw the bottom and caught the rally the last 2 days.

Finally, this is just my opinion and open for discussion/critics.

Behaviorial Finance - Endowment Effect

2009-03-07T09:16:00.003+08:00

“I AM the most offensively possessive man on earth. I do something to things. Let me pick up an ashtray from a dime-store counter, pay for it and put it in my pocket—and it becomes a special kind of ashtray, unlike any on earth, because it’s mine.”

The endowment effect is a hypothesis that people value a good more once their property right to it has been established. In other words, people place a higher value on objects they own relative to objects they do not.

The endowment effect was described as inconsistent with standard economic theory which asserts that a person's willingness to pay for a good should be equal to their willingness to accept compensation to be deprived of the good. This hypothesis underlies consumer theory.

‘Thaler (1980) coined the term “endowment effect” to refer to the finding that randomly assigned owners of an object appear to value the object more than randomly assigned non-owners of the object.

Example: Look around your house. Pick something. How much would you sell it for? How much would people really pay for it? How much would you pay for something like this at a second-hand store?

Carling Cup Finals Winner - Man Utd

2009-03-02T20:05:00.004+08:00

Sorry everyone about this post that breaks the flow of the BF series. But I cannot help but.....

I'm happy that the team i support got the 2nd Trophy for the season. Hopefully they are get the CL like last season cause more or less the EPL is decided. It's really up to them to lose it and well, it's not in their blood to lose it easily.

To those who still do not know this team is MANCHESTER UNITED ! hahaha!

Behavioral Finance - Frame Dependence

2009-02-28T12:10:00.004+08:00

What is Frame Dependence and how does this seemingly "bombastic" term seem to relate to my own investing/trading decision ?

Frame Dependence is a big topic and can be related in many ways but what I attempt to do here is to simplify the entire concept for easier understanding, not that I understand everything about it but this is just for sharing.

<--- Before you start going further, image your brain as a box.

Frame Dependence is made under both emoitional and cognitive reasons. The cognitive aspects refers to the way people organize their information while the emotional aspects deal with the way people feel when they register their information.

The term frame dependence means that they way people behave depends on the way that their decisions are framed.

Think about this: When stock prices go up, dividends can be savoured separately from capital gains but when stock prices go down, dividends serves as a "silver lining" for the capital losses.

Think about this example.

Let's say you've already won $1,500 and there is a chance to make another $500 or lose another $500. Some people will see themselves as $1,500 ahead whereas some will "feel" the loss of $500 when faced with this choice.

This difference affects a trader/investor's behavior : Because of Loss Aversion, people who ignore having profited that $1,500 are less prone to accepting the gamble then those who see themselves as $1,500 ahead. This is also known as the "House Money Effect".

Behavioral Finance - Gambler's Fallacy

2009-02-25T00:07:00.004+08:00

What is Gambler's Fallacy?

Am i having a traits of a gambler in my investment decisions

Gambler's Fallacy, in Behavioral Finance, is the belief that if deviations from expected behavior are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future.

This simply means this:

If a coin is tossed repeatedly and heads comes up more often than tails, a gambler may incorrectly believe that heads is more likely to appear in the future. But as a matter of fact, a coin has two sides and the chance of heads or tails is always 50-50.

An experiment carried out by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman shows that people see (streaks of) random events as being non-random when they are actually much more likely to occur in small samples than expectations.

In relation to investing:

Do you gamble on the bottom more often at the start of a certain drop?
Have you considered the reasons of an entry/exit or are you just hopeful?
Do you see IPO as a sure-win opportunity?

Make sensible decisions based on analysis and not hear say or gut feeling as regret on a loss is always a worse feeling that the joy of a profit, Loss Aversion.

Behavioral Finance - Loss Aversion

2009-02-21T14:35:00.005+08:00

What is Loss Aversion in Behavioral Finance?

How important is it to understand this aspect of yourself when it comes to your investing/ trading strategy.

"More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason." -- Philip Fisher

Loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains.

Investors have been shown to be more likely to sell winning stocks in an effort to "take some profits," while at the same time not wanting to accept defeat in the case of the losers.

It also doesn't help that we tend to feel the pain of a loss more strongly than we do the pleasure of a gain. It's this unwillingness to accept the pain early that might cause us to "ride losers too long" in the vain hope that they'll turn around and won't make us face the consequences of our decisions.

The mental framework of an individual is very important is this aspect.

Think of the following:

1. Would you rather get a $2 discount, or avoid a $2 ERP surcharge?

2. Will you lose more satisfaction if you made a loss of $1000 than gain satisfaction from a profit of $1000. In absolute terms, the figures are the same.

What is Behavioral Finance (BF)

2009-02-15T12:11:00.005+08:00

First and foremost. I am not a guru in this area but I've been interested in this for some time and did some readup. My posts on this topic, for sharing, might be fairly shallow and critics would be apppreciated.

"Behavioral finance is a rapidly growing area that deals with the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners."

"Behavioral finance is the application of psychology to financial behavior—the behavior of practitioners."

"Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets."Shefrin (2001)

For a while, theoretical and empirical evidence suggested that CAPM, EMH and other rational financial theories did a respectable job of predicting and explaining certain events. However, as time went on, academics in both finance and economics started to find anomalies and behaviors that couldn't be explained by theories available at the time. While these theories could explain certain "idealized" events, the real world proved to be a very messy place in which market participants often behaved very unpredictably.

Important Characters to BF:

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky

Fathers of behavioral economics/finance in the late 1960
Published about 200 works, relating to psychological concepts with implications for BF
In 2002, Kahneman received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to the study of rationality in economics
Focused much of their research on the cognitive biases and heuristics that cause people to engage in unanticipated irrational behavior.

Richard Thaler

This field would not have evolved if it weren't for economist Richard Thaler.
During his studies, Thaler became aware of the shortcomings in conventional economic theoryies as they relate to people's behaviors.
After reading a draft version of Kahneman and Tversky's work on prospect theory, Thaler realized that, unlike conventional economic theory, psychological theory could account for the irrationality in behaviors.
Thaler went on to collaborate with Kahneman and Tversky, blending economics and finance with psychology to present concepts, such as mental accounting, the endowment effect and other biases.

The presence of regularly occurring anomalies in conventional economic theory was a big contributor to the formation of behavioral finance. These so-called anomalies, and their continued existence, directly violate modern financial and economic theories, which assume rational and logical behavior.
Examples of Anomalies: The Winner's Curse, January Effect, Equity Premium Puzzle and etc.

Conventional financial theory does not account for all situations that happen in the real world. This is not to say that conventional theory is not valuable, but rather that the addition of behavioral finance can further clarify how the financial markets work.

Behavioral Finance

2009-02-14T16:00:00.003+08:00

It has been a long time since I last posted and I wonder if my site is still being visited.

But nevertheless, I will be posting on a series of posts about something in Behavioural Finance. Something which I think will help everyone understand a little bit more about themselves in their investing journey.

This series of posts will be done and completed by End Feb. I am expecting to post about 10 posts which will be completed by end Feb, early March.

So stay tuned!

What Exactly Happened to Dow Jones

2009-01-14T01:25:00.006+08:00

This post is just to bring about some thoughts to the current situation which hopefully some of you might find interesting.

1. The first huge spike from the left of the chart on 1929.

Right before the run-up, we can see some resistance from 1900 to 1926 before a bull run that ended in 1929. This run increased Dow Jones by a good 138% within 4 years.

That spike happened in 1929 before it collapsed to 44.17 points, this also meant that within 4 years, Dow Jones lost almost 89.2% of it's value.
I stress again, 89.2%.

2. The recovery from 1929.

If an investor added a position at the peak of the bull run on 1929, he would have to wait 30 years before he managed to break even, not considering the dividends that he might received throughout the entire holding period.

This once again stresses the importance of entry price for long term holding as it determines the yield thereafter from divvy.

After the recovery to it's previous high which took 30 years, the stock market tanked for almost another 30 years, from 1958 - 1986 thereabout.

3. The break of the 1000 mark and beyond

This historical peak of 1,000 was finally breached around 1983. This is the start of a monstrous run which was never seen in history.

Since 1983 till 2008, a period of 25 years, Dow Jones not only broke the 10,000 mark but in fact hit 13,930. In 25 years, Dow Jones increased 1393%.

Once again, I repeat myself, in 25 years, DOW JONES went up 1393%.

A few questions which I think can be pondered on would be:

1. Did the economy improve so much in the last 25 years to warrant such an astronomical increase, if we consider that the saying of the stock market being a reflection of the economy is true.

2. What then could be the reasons for such a sudden increment in Dow Jones

3. If PE ratio is a reflection of the investor's confidence in the company's future earnings, what motivated them to push PE ratios upwards

4. What causes Dow Jones to lose almost 90% back in 1929 (This can be easily found online, just google it.)

5. Lastly, will this be a repeat of 1929 or rather, has the run-up been way too strong to be justified by current share prices implying room for further drop, back to the times when the stock market reflects the economy in that time.

Have we bottomed yet ?

2009-01-07T10:35:00.002+08:00

Here is my view on the million dollar question. First let us take a look at the property cycle.

There is a constant opine throughout that property lags the economy as an asset class. Even recently, we can see this trend even in Singapore. There was a good run uptrend in the economy and property prices started rising till the point when everyone was saying that it's too expensive. Then "BAM!", we all know what happen after this. Now property prices are coming back down again. A boring cycle indeed, but can you identify with it? Are there lessons to be learnt?

Why then does the property lags the economy.

A booming economy will bring in the monies to the bank and for this to happen, time is required. When everyone seems to be very comfortable with the amount of money set aside, they look to invest in the most physical asset, property. When the demand increases, prices increases. It's normal. A property asset require a huge amount of money and housing loans would normally be subscribed for their very purpose. This result in a man laden debt, who still holds the positive mindset that the good economy will last. When a crisis hits long enough for everyone to realise that the good times are gone, a primitive man's psychological reaction would be to protect himself and his needs, thus the demand for property drops resulting in the drop in property prices/value. This will generally also cost a reduction in expenditure in the economy throughout.

How does that relate to a bottom then.

In a crisis like this, companies bankrupt and employees retrenched. Both these incidents will have negative effect on the economy but the time before the impact is felt also require time. This I think is pretty easy to comprehend and I won't spend too much time explaining. In 2H2008, we see the liquidation of banks and retrenchment of staffs and at the start of 2009, more retrenchment news (Alcoa)and liquidation of operations (LyondellBasell) was announed.

If companies are not making profits and unemployment rate is high worldwide, why is there a good reason for a rebound or rather, should any rebound be taken seriously and result in you jumping into a position?

Although I also know that it's been said that share prices are at their lowest even before the economy shows it. (I forgot the term used to relate this but try to understand.. haha!) But do you think things might be rosy again soon? If so, how soon?

Share with me your thoughts!

A brief introduction about Toyota

2009-01-07T10:00:00.003+08:00

Toyota is one of the best-run companies in the world. Much of its success is due to "lean thinking," a concept that aims to create additional value for the end customer, according to Mike Morrison, Dean of Toyota University

I was rather shocked when I heard this news over the TV, not by the fact that such a decision was made but the length of time it has decided to stop it's production. That's effectively 1/3 of a month !! Can your company stop production for 11 days ?

Obviously, this recession has effectively affected Toyota that it has decided to make such a drastic move. By the way, Toyota is considered world wide as one of the few companies which has a fantastic culture and management system. Just look at their rise to their current status.

Toyota Management Style is influenced by Taiichi Ohno, who developed the Toyota Production System. Quote: "I feel strongly that the word 'work' refers to the production of perfect goods only. If a machine is not producing perfect goods, it is not 'working'."

Many of you till now may think that this is just another IDEAL but Personnel in the production line has the power to halt the production when malfunction occurs.

Toyota Coporate Strategy: “Cut down on the distance that things move throughout the plant.”

Toyota Strategic Management: “Utilise the inherent talent of your workers.”

Toyota Leadership Model: "Never fail to reward merit, but never let a fault go unremarked."

To know more about Toyota: The Toyota Way - Jeffery K. Liker

Courage Marine

2008-11-26T00:29:00.002+08:00

This company has been on my list for the longest of time and 'm not going to give it up yet for other companies despite it's drop from $0.50+.

Here, I'm not going to have a story telling session on this company but just something short and sweet for sharing purposes on TA since it's really been some time since I last posted.

As seen from the charts, downtrend is still intact although it broke out from it's first trend but still, it's within the bigger trend. Not a good sign yet.

However, there is one thing that is worth of note. Courage Marine is currently heading to it's latest low of $0.11. Could that be a time to buy, personally yes. But then again, the economic conditions is definitely not recovering in the mean time and could in fact, worsen. The earnings of this company is dependent on the BDI, a future economic indicator, which may not be heading north in the coming days/weeks. Another point worth pointing out is the increased selling volume experienced in the last 3 days, definitely not something encouraging.

Technicals aside, this company has yet been through a major economic crisis since it's founding in June 2001. So this is the time to observe if this company has the right personnel to bring the company into a better era. So unless everything starts to show signs of settling, and my dear company manage to survive, I will definitely buy in.

For 3Q2008, CM has managed to nett a US$38.9m profit, a flattish profit as the management puts it, considering the oil rices and all the nonsense in recent months, personally it is not all bad. This is due to the tight financial controls by the management, credit to them. Another point which I like about CM is the $0 debt and all it's net assets are backed by cold hard cash, which the mangement can utilise to increase gearing to avoid cashflow issues.

Lastly, something interesting to point out is that in current times, CM has signed an agreement to buy one additional vessel.

I've yet to drill the report partly because I'm still waiting for the full FY08 AR where it will be clearer the impact the economic conditions has on CM.

Till then........ Cheers

A view on Charts - 3 year chart

2008-10-08T23:35:00.009+08:00

Chart of DJ

support broken

Nikkei

support broken

STI

support broken

Hang Seng

support NOT broken

For your own interpretation

Putting Finance in the Proper Place

2008-10-08T22:45:00.002+08:00

US President, Franklin D Roosevelt once wanted to use constitutional prerogatives to drive "money changers" out of the temple. He once said that "money changers" must be cast down from their "high seats in the temple of out civilization and America must "restore that ancient truths" that growing, making, managing and inventing should have higher status, honor and rewards than what financiers do.

This current period really reflects his vision.

Just look around.

"Adapted from The Business Times"

Progress on my Online Bookshop

2008-10-03T10:03:00.003+08:00

Hi people,

For some of you who might be wondering since my last mention of the set up, has there been any progress.

Good news to all, I've potentially liaised with 3 suppliers till date and "Finance Books" will be the key areas that I'll focus on. I'm quietly confident that my pricing should be at least 15% off the market price.

At this current moment, I've tried playing with blogspot while the e-commerce website is in the progress of getting finalised.

Till there's other news on it, I'll update in all my blogs. haha!

Just wait !! The Sale is here !!

Historical Moment since Black Monday

2008-09-30T23:41:00.007+08:00

Brace yourself for this historic moment of your life! Dow Jones dropped almost 770+ points in one day, that a whopping 7-8% drop!

I wonder when will we ever see this again.

Honestly, being logical people, sit back and think.
Think from a business prospective.

1. You are presented a plan that requires you to fork out a HUGE sum of $.
2. This plan is not complete, there are loopholes/ questions.
3. It is YOUR money and there are people hounding you for it, with a lousy plan
4. It MAY NOT be the final solution.
5. It's not your problem in the first place.

Would you give up your huge reserves? Still hopeful?
Oh well, just a thought.

Singapore's First F1 Race, Concluded

2008-09-29T11:20:00.008+08:00

"In this part of the world, for sure, night races will take off," - Bernie Ecclestone

McLaren boss Ron Dennis - "It is not just a new experience," he said, "It is a real big step in the history of grand prix racing because it has been done so well. Everything has been proven now and we can take this model and apply it to anywhere in the world - either to bring to Europe the race at a time when people watch it, or even within Europe to make it more spectacular."

Williams team boss, the eponymous Frank Williams - "It has a good chance of challenging Monaco for being the jewel in the crown of Formula One,"

"It costs a lot of money, the lights, the circuit and the organisation. But it is a great investment for the city. And, of course, it is fantastic for F1. It is, in the best sense of the word, a highlight," Mercedes motorsport vice-president Norbert Haug said.

"The track and the facilities here have been phenomenal," championship leader Lewis Hamilton

Shares Buyback

2008-09-25T10:15:00.005+08:00

If some of you still do not know, there has been some major share buyback programs that has been declared recently.

1. Microsoft - US$ 40b
2. HP - US$ 8b
3. Nike - US$ 5b
4. Vodaphone - US$ 2b
5. Anheuser Busch - US$ 1b

These are the biggest companies in the world that has been declaring their Shares Buyback program.

So what exactly is Shares Buyback?
In this post, I'll only address Shares Buyback and not other FA theories or Formulas

First and foremost, please understand that cash used for the buyback can always be used alternatively on new investments, new products or marketing, which MIGHT increase the revenue of the company.

Investor Point of View

1. When the fund buys its shares at a discount, the net-asset value for the remaining shareholders rises.

Imagine a company has $100 in assets and 10 shares issued, making each share be worth $10.

If the Share Price is trading at $9 and the company buys back 1 shares at $9, what is left is assets of $91 and 9 shares.

This buyback increases the NAV per share to $10.11, or 1.1%

2. Buying back of shares creates an impression that the management is confident of the prospects of the company and feels that at current traded price, the company is undervalued.

3. A Buyback reduces the number of shares available, thus increasing the company's earnings-per-share and makes it appear more attractive.

Company's Point of View

Before we go into this area, 2 points to note:

Shareholders and Management are 2 different class of personnel in the Company.

Has it occured to you the fact that instead of a buyback, why not increase the Dividends paid out?

1. The Management of the company might have a clause to receive compensation in relation to the company stock price. This simply means that with the higher the stock price, the more it benefits the mangement, be in stock options or bonus.

2. Stock buyback has the immediate impact on the share price. Short Termist Management will deem this strtegy as the most effective as compared to Divided Payout.

So Now What ?

Look for Cash Flow and Dividends Payout.

Dividend Payout Ratio - With a lower dividend payout ratio, Company A will have more Cash to reinvest in the business. However, do note is the business is worth the investing.

Conversation with MIIF

2008-09-21T20:52:00.002+08:00

I mailed MIIF my queries during the recent major selldown and I was pleasantly surprised by the warm response by their VP with regards to my queries.

Just for sharing purposes with what I can still remember.

Macquarie bank bas 11% shareholding in MIIF and the directors in MIIF are all on contractual basis. Even if Macquarie Bank in Australia does collapse, MIIF is still independent on itself.

Last year, when the Script Option was announced, only about 20% of the shareholders took up script. That, being said, means that even with script offered, the dilution of current shareholders is not strong, rather, it is not much of a concern.

MIIF takes pride in distributing 100% of its net profit to shareholders and as the CP terms it, is to prevent laziness. With regards to not keeping profits for asset purchases. he gave the explanation that there is sufficient debt facility which MIIF has access to and the returns from the investments will more than enough repay the interests generated. Not forgetting the fact that MIIF has assets that has been set aside ready for sale to generate cashflow, if need be.

With regards to its last div payout, MIIF is generally in a good financial position, although it seems that they have declared above what profits that had been reported in 1H2008, which is not the case. From Jul to Aug, MIIF did received another cash inflow from its operations. As reported in 1H2008, revenue from its new acquistions will be reflected in the 3Q report.

Recent movements in share price could be due to speculations and hedge funds movements. Fundamentally, MIIF is still there same.

This is what I can remember of the conversation I had over the phone. I've have yet verified the statements nor am I going to do so. I've already lowered my average cost and looking forward to the 3Q report and the 2H2008, which will reflect their major movements this year.

My view on FerroChina - TA

2008-09-20T20:36:00.003+08:00

Looking at the chart last Dec, it was still a $2.00 counter. Within the 9 months, it lost close to 80% in value. Is that something serious to be concerned about.

In TA, VALUE is not a concern. Fundamentally, it is not one counter I'll put my $ in for long term, time horizon 3 years and more. Not because it is a lousy company but I've not done any analysis fundamentally about it yet.

I'm personally vested last Friday and my opinions MIGHT be biased.

1. Not a strong cause to state when I say that there is a b/o but still it's near the gap price @ 0.67.

2. Check the trades done intra day on Friday and you have a reason to believe that there is accumulation on this counter, although there is strong selling. This is the same to GAR on Wednesday and Thursday when in 1 trade, 6m shares is done, sold down but the market absorbed it. When the selling is done and the accumulation is in process, it could mean some upward strength.

3. Not a frequent user of indicators, but MACD looks to converge and MFI looks good.

Unless I missed out something OR I am wrong in my analysis, do drop me a comment !! Thanks people.

Technical Rebound or Bottoming Out

2008-09-20T10:24:00.004+08:00

After so many days and weeks of going down, STI and in fact global markets finally "see" some light. In fact, this rally that'd happen took me by surprise.

1. It happens just after America decides to bail out AIG.
2. 2 of the top Investment Banks in the world liquidated.
3. Top banks are still looking for solutions to prevent liquidation due to their credit issues.

The million dollar question, is this sustainable and will this spark another bull run. Personally, No.

The fundamental issues are still lingering and out world's financial big boss is really in some sort of debt concerns. Printing $ and absorbing bad debts is definitely not the long term solution, or am I missing some important knowledge here, if so please enlighten me.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Technically, as seen, we finally saw HUGE buying up. It's a positive sign, finally but still we need to watch for the resistance level at about 2770, the small gap formed about a month ago.

From the RSI, STI has been in long oversold, but then again, this is no reason to assume that a rebound is at hand, then again, it's is just another indicator that a rally, big or small, COULD be here, it's just when.

Any other technical information can be intepreted from the chart posted.

What you need to know about IPOs

2008-08-15T00:27:00.002+08:00

This topic is on my mind for a period of time.

Why do people chase after IPO. I can never understand.
Doesn't chasing IPOs almost equates to gambling?

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Extracted from Wikipedia,

Initial Public Offering (IPO), also referred to simply as a "public offering", is when a company issues common stock or shares to the public for the first time. They are often issued by smaller, younger companies seeking capital to expand, but can also be done by large privately-owned companies looking to become publicly traded.

In an IPO, the issuer may obtain the assistance of an underwriting firm, which helps it determine what type of security to issue (common or preferred), best offering price and time to bring it to market.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd like to draw your attention to a few points.

1. First time.

Alright don't bother about First time. The point I'm trying to bring across is that, companies that are listed may not be companies of a rich history of proven growth. Neither are companies listed for the sole purpose to benefit the shareholders, the "outsiders". If nothing is proven, how can you access it's worth?

2. Seeking capital to expand

Is there a common belief that companies that gets itself listed is a good and profitable company? Didn't it occur to anyone that it is the company that NEEDS the capital, our $, to expand NOT that we need the company to grow our wealth. Is the difference clear enough?

Not forgetting the fact that the capital required is by no means a small amount. It is huge. So by linking the above point, a new company needing huge capital influx, doesn't it simply means that the shares that is offered to the public is not cheap, rather it should be valued at it's maximum already?

3. Underwriting fees

Okay! This is the obvious, no companies gets listed for free.

Well, I don't deny that there could be companies that is very stable getting listed, take MASTERCARD for example. I'm obviously not going into this aspect but the ones that no one hear of. Somewhere out there, some group of people decides to list in SGX and the hype starts all over again.

1. Read/Hear the news of a potential company dealing with oil, not heard of, getting listed.
2. Head towards the atm and subscribe for the shares, and hope.
3. If the subscription went through, celebrate. Else,luck's fault.
4. If @ opening it went higher, credit it to one's intelligence.
5. If @ opening it went lower, REMAIN HOPEFUL and wait for a rebound.
6. Lastly, blame the company but yourself.

There are over 500 companies listed on SGX with proven results and records, why one that is new and unheard of.

Chase IPOs? Think again.

Views on MIIF's results

2008-08-14T12:32:00.002+08:00

Buying into MIIF is buying into fund more than a business. The primary reason for my inital purchase is for Div play at around 10% p.a.

A glance over the 1H2008 report, this is what I've gathered.

1. MIIF disposed off 4 Assets (namely DUET, MAP, MCG and MIC) that generate Distribution Income, Brussels Airport and TanQuid which contribute a inflow of $35 m in the same period last year.

I've asked the management on this issue and what I've been replied is that MIIF is focusing it's assets into the higher growth Asia region and thus acquired InfraVest, HNE and TBC. As stated, the current drop in revenue should not be of a major concern as yet, as the management states that payment from it's new acquistions are in arrears, which should be reflected in the 2H2008 report. We'll see.

2. SDS scheme that is available will dilute the current shareholders' holdings, but the management has replied that not everyone will take up the scheme and should not affect a great deal, but still 'll continue to remain cautious in this aspect in the long term.

3. By declaring a div of 4.25cents for 1H2008, 'm a satisfied man. Within my expectations.

So far, 'm quite alright with the long term prospects of this counter.

MIIF declaring 1H08 Results Tomorrow!!!

2008-08-12T14:44:00.001+08:00

I bought this counter for div play! Let's see if the 1st half will disappoint.

I hope not.

It's a Material World but don't fall into it

2008-08-08T01:33:00.002+08:00

'm quite "bored" reading books relating to investing and dug out this book which I bought at a discount some time back. It has been left lying there for like a good 1 year? ha!

This story has a pretty simple buildup yet a very mystical ending, which tries to drive the point to readers, to chase their dreams. A very simple read.

Flash back about 1 year ago, I picked up TA from an old friend of mine and got myself "addicted" to stocks and patterns. I went through charts after charts and entered my 1st trade. Since then, I've yet to stop or drop this "interest" of mine, but in fact ventured into FA and Business Analysis, the simplified version around March 08.

What then is chasing the dreams, for me? Don't fall into the trap which a lot of people is HOPING, the millions that the market holds or the overnight riches from a gap up. If one chases desperately for the material things in life, honestly he might have lived in vain as this world is but temporal and when time is up, we will have to leave everything behind.

So fellow traders/investors, don't just chase the $. It's important to lead a balanced life or rather a fulfilling life. Be contented.

At the end of the day, look at the bigger picture, how much do one actually need? Just a thought. Cheers.

** This book did not change my opinion towards my goals, but I just thought of a sharing it briefly through this entry.

What exactly is BDI

2008-08-05T14:07:00.001+08:00

Every working day, the Baltic canvasses brokers around the world and asks how much it would cost to book various cargoes of raw materials on various routes—150,000 tons of iron ore going from Australia to China or 150,000 tons of coal from South Africa to Taiwan. Brokers are also asked to consider variables such as the type and speed of the ship and the length of the voyage.

The answers are melded into the BDI, which appears in shipping publications such as Lloyd's List and on the screens of information vendors such as Reuters and Bloomberg. Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," as the Baltic puts it, it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade.

The BDI is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.

Because the supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and ships are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in the Arizona desert—marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly. And significant increases in demand can push the index sharply higher.

- Daniel Gross

The index is also seen as a good economic indicator of future economic growth and production, termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

- Wikipedia

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For sharing purposes for those who might be interested in dry bulk companies.

100-billion-dollar note

2008-07-22T00:50:00.002+08:00

Do you want one of these?

While we are worrying here about a 6% inflation, somewhere out there, there's A NEED for this kinda bill.

Oh for the record, Zimbabwe, grappling with a record 2.2 million percent inflation.

WHAT A JOKE!!!

2008-07-20T19:02:00.000+08:00

SMRT Taxis says it will remove the surcharge when diesel price drops to S$1.19 per litre, which was the market rate in December last year.

quoted from
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/20080720/tap-383-smrt-taxis-introduce-30-cent-fue-231650b.html

Do they even know it's 1.9 now?

Update on my progress

2008-06-27T01:01:00.002+08:00

If there is still anyone here looking at my blog, this is my update.

I've not been posting much as I am currently venturing into fundamental analysis which I'd think better suits my investing objectives and future schedule.

Technical Analysis will not be chucked aside, obviously, but I will not post TA charts as much as before or rather, ONLY IF there's something DAMN interesting.

So friends, I'm still alive and kicking, just that I'm rather inactive at the moment. To post anything regarding FA, I think there are better sites you people can refer to like, LP's blog. =)

Perhaps, something to mention is that

1. Singpost should be buying back some of it's shares soon.

2. MIIF has taken a bad beating so far, but still relatively attractive in my opinion. It has fallen to my entry price, should I add to my position.

3. Is Sinotel considered unvalued at this moment?

4. In the Palm sector, which company amongst the smaller 3 can be the next big thing. Is there any chance.

5. Water is being heavily invested, is it worth entering, HyfluxT? Not too sure myself but one thing for sure,

I do not have such a huge capital for allocation. =)

Hmmm...

FerroChina - 28/02/2008

2008-05-28T10:24:00.002+08:00

Currently uptrend still intact albeit the volatility. Resting on support at the moment, testing it.

Once breached, we'll be looking at 1.45-1.47 as the next level.

But unless DJ keeps dropping, I'd think that the uptrend can sustain, after going through 1 week of selling, technically.

YangZiJiang - 28/5/2008

2008-05-28T10:15:00.002+08:00

The 1st 2 counters I bought when I first started.

This counter has been on the top volume almost everyday these few days, sustaining lots of selling pressure. It's recent uptrend has been broken with 2 dojis, to me it's "hesistation".

Using Fibbo, it can be seen that 0.985 is a support which has yet been breached for 2 consecutive days of testing that line. Intraday wise, there's pretty much of buying at 0.985. Should this be broken, it's 0.935 but then again, this price seems pretty strong at the moment.

SupremeA: FibreChem

2008-05-13T12:28:00.002+08:00

Sorry if my chart looks messy. I just thought of including the bollinger band cause it seems to show the Resistance and Support pretty clearly.

To me for short term, 5d MA seems acceptable but then it's subjective and differs from individual. Last closing broke 5d MA. Not very nice, but not totally hopeless.

Support as seen from bollinger band is near 0.72, which is supported by the candlesticks as shown.

ST Eng

2008-05-12T12:23:00.003+08:00

3.15 Support, period

Note that in almost every May the share price will definitely drop. Nothing to be seriously worried about since it's after it's Div payout. I've got the impression or read that this company's payout is 100%. So a dip in share price due to the outflow of cash, is perfectly normal.

Fundamentally, I've yet to really go into it deep, but I've got the impression that this coy is good. I mean how can it not be? It's ST, and who is it's backer? Who does maintainance for SAF? 100% payout! Or am i mislead? ha!

Singtel

2008-05-12T12:16:00.002+08:00

This counter appeared on my shortlist ever since I saw it's trading channel from 3.6 to 4. But my interest on it increased on it's recent breaking of it's 200MA.

I'm waiting to collect at the price range of 3.61-3.63, if it ever happen but anyway, I read from sharejunction that they will annouce their results coming Wednesday. So 'll just be patient till then.

If it comes, it comes. Else it's alright cause I've got ST Eng under my radar also.
Another heavy weight trending on support.

Once again, Champions!

2008-05-12T12:04:00.003+08:00

Taken from Soccernet.

Once again, reconfirmed as champions!

An old bird closing the chapter,scoring the last goal, in the league for the club for Year 07/08.
A young bird hitting 41 goals, with 1 more game to go.

Nothing materially gained from them being champions but it's just good to see them win the league. Pride! Ha!

Next up, UCL in 9 days time.
Another hit on Chelsea's ego would sum up a very satisfactory season for Man United!

We are the champions.... We are the champions.... We are the champions !!!!

Mistake on my short - Capitaland

2008-05-03T00:56:00.002+08:00

I've made a huge mistake at my entry price on this counter. A simple analysis is shown on the chart.

Rightfully, I've spotted the trend that it rebounds off it's peak and off it's support. If one manage to catch the 2nd and 3rd rebound off the support and the 3rd and 4th rebound off the peak, I think that person is a happy man. =) I din, but I've learnt a bit in my 1st ever serious short position.

I did not take time to observe the movement of the counter but hastily entered a position quite off the possible peak. I was impatient. Note: Shorting is a total different ball game all together.

Taking a closer look on hindsight, I think I learnt a few things off this 1st short position.

People interested in shorts, dun plunge head in. Do a more detailed analysis.

More profits can be taken from a short if done right. Be careful.

STI 2th May 2008

2008-05-02T20:08:00.003+08:00

In response to DJ breaking of the 13000 barrier I previously posted, STI reacted in the similar reaction today. As pointed out by my friend, TraderStudent, a Inverse H&S formation is spotted but not completed.

But the postive thing to note, despite the possible failure is that STI is still above 3,150, a resistance turned support as seen on the previous days of trading.

Today, with STI closing

1. Slightly above 200MA

2. Above the neckline of the inverted H&S

3. Above the support line drawn, this is subjective

4. Considerable volume.

Are we going to trend along this region or drop. This is the million dollar question, nevertheless HSI, has recovered it's gap. Technically, we are recovering, but then again, bombs could be dropped again to supress the prices for the BIG PLAYERS to earn more, as usual.

The news creator, analysts = Biggest earners. Agree? To me, it is.

DJ Revisited - 31/04/2008

2008-05-01T22:52:00.002+08:00

It has been some time since I've done a chart on index.

Few things worth noticing, the channel DJ is now in. It is currently, FINALLY, trading above it's 200MA, not by a lot but a little. Nearest resistance not too far off at around 13000.

Not all is bad now on the chart, although almost 120 points of gains wad given up in the last 2 hours of trading on DJ when FED talked a bit too much =)

Let's see if this current trend can hold/break.

Oh! My FIRST dividends has been declared. This is emotional, exciting, this is history in the making!!!

Moscow HERE WE COME! =)

2008-04-30T09:31:00.004+08:00

Extracted from Soccernet.

Nervy GAME!!!

The Determination of our defence.
The Creativity and Potential of out midfield.
The LACK of a clinical finisher.

The Class of Messi.
The Versatility of Zambrotta.
The Snap Shots by Deco

Not forgetting, the deciding strike by OLD MAN, Paul Scholes!! He did very well in the game.

Watch THE goal below.

http://www.fcfootballblog.com/2008/04/29/manchester-united-1-0-barcelona-highlights/

Paulcbc: Cosco - My view

2008-04-24T17:14:00.003+08:00

Fibbo Retracements

Falling Volume.

Immediate Resistance?

Still bullish? worth buying @ anything higher than 3.50? When it's middle of no where.

Caveat Emptor!

Did I.....

2008-04-23T00:42:00.002+08:00

Did I juse see a hammer on DJ @ 12800+

Tsktsktsk, this rebound came late or is it a rebound.

Be careful.

Sidelining might not be a bad thing.

Hello People!

2008-04-20T21:46:00.002+08:00

I am back!

At least I've decided to change my chatbox, something which killed my interest to blogging since I cannot see any response.

Blogging idead does at times become a chore, a one-sided affair.

I would not be active here but then again would check my chatbox frequently to respond. Ideas and thoughts are coming waves after waves, it's not easy to put to words.

Investor38 - My brief view on Golden Agri

2008-04-12T23:37:00.002+08:00

All else aside, the resistance @ 0.965, unless broken, expect rebound off it.

Just a simple analysis, nothing complex =)

Help!

2008-04-07T16:59:00.001+08:00

I cannot see my chatbox, neither can I log in through my window. Is there any solutions to this problem?

Anyone who can suggest something, mail me at Jingxiong@Hotmail.com or add me on msn @ jingxiong@Hotmail.com and tell me a solution.

Else I'll be closing this site down already =)

LP: I can't see ur chatbox either!

My Internet Explorer got Problem?

2008-04-05T15:41:00.002+08:00

Guys, I've just gotten a new laptop and somehow, I dun seem to be able to log see my pager properly, meaning, I cannot directly go to click on new post or sign in. I've to go through the blog of others to sign in.

What's the problem and any solutions?

I'll be posting on the belated posting on "Way of the Turtle" due to the theft of my laptop on Monday. Just got the connection back on Friday.

In addition, I'll be posting on some thoughts that went through my mind these few days, hopefully someone can enlighten my queries.

Finally Connection @ home!

2008-04-05T15:40:00.000+08:00

Wierd? Or is it me?

2008-03-30T22:02:00.004+08:00

I am sure all of you would be familiar with these 2 charts.

STI:

5 rising days
4 days buying strength
Trading on support of 2960

Dow Jones:

Broke support of uptrend.
4 "red" days
4 days of selling volume

Does this make you think? It didn't for me. =)

Comments/ Advice greatly appreciated.

Rally Sustainable?

2008-03-20T00:39:00.001+08:00

Honestly, I have my doubts even with the 400+ points rally.

Take your time to buy =)

Vision Ahead

2008-03-19T08:53:00.003+08:00

I'm trying at the moment, to build a portfolio that generates reasonably stable cash inflow in the next 5 years.

At the moment, I'm looking into REITS, namely,

1. Allco Reit (Due to the worldwide area diversification in pty portfolio)
2. Suntec Reit (Holding SG pty)
3. K-Reit (Holding SG pty)
4. First Reit (Medical Pty worldwide)

I'll most probably pick one/two of the above to be added to my burgeoning portfolio.

Things to consider for REITs,

1. Economic Moat
2. Income Streams
3. Payout Ratio

Hopefully I'll get these companies sorted out soon enough.
But of couse, I'll still be trading in the meantime.
Anyone who might be interested to learn together, drop me a mail =)

STI - yawnz~

2008-03-16T22:00:00.003+08:00

STI, nothing interesting! Biong Biong Biong!

Support at 2800, still holding. Flat day on Monday, perhaps?

Anyway, I just want to point out the fact that although there are rebounds off 2800, but the peak is getting lower, a point of concern as support may not hold for long. Nothing exciting, until it clears 2150, imo, the nearest resistance. Perhaps, 2800 can still hold for Monday as all eyes would be on the FED CUT, coming this week. Perhaps only perhaps. =)

DOW JONES!! Failed Rallies!!

2008-03-16T21:48:00.002+08:00

As posted in one of the posts this weekend, I mentioned about talking about Dow Jones and, here goes.

Support @ 11,700.
Downtrend in progress obviously.

As highlighted in blue, notice how rallies were not sustained. I would not spend too much time explaining on them. Lazy =)

Latest downtrend still in check, tested but not broken. Bad news but nevertheless, the support of 11,700 still holds, probably a rebound after 18th March and Monday still being a RED day? Well, that's what I think based on TA.

FA wise, it's just another stop gap solution to their problem.
Avoid Recession, Bother about inflation later, when greenbacks are depreciating? Problem still lingers...... Just my personal opinion.

First Resources - Joke?

2008-03-16T21:36:00.002+08:00

I'm sure some of you who might be reading this post right now, did dumb your positions upon hearing the news of the possible court case regarding the auctioning of their assets. Intra day movement, on the day of news release, went to $0.8.

In fact last Friday, I was thinking of doing a trade on this counter but at the entry price of $0.93, the temp support for this counter, which in my opinion, provides an acceptable margin of safety.
But when I turned on my com at work, the price went up to 1.1+, GREAT!

Anyway, I've two links with regards to the news below, if you're interested.

The reason for the Gap down:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aX6GDh_CK9Tk

The reason for the Gap up:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080314/tbs-markets-singapore-stocks-a5a65c6.html

How will investors now view them? Sigh, If only I'd looked at this chart, a day earlier. Ha!
Well, IF ONLY. =)

This is what I use to console myself, a quote from KAY, "It's okay to miss a few, cause, the market last longer than you."

CWT - A Potential Long Candidate!

2008-03-15T10:49:00.003+08:00

CWT. A Logistic Company by nature. I once mentioned that I wanted to do a study on this company, but at the moment, I really cannot find the time to do it. My apologies.

Anyway, based on TA this chart is "pretty" in my opinion. The recent prices tested the resistance and support, so we are in for some movement soon, perhaps next week I hope.

At the last closing, the price sat nicely @ $0.84, a support formed recently. There'd be some margin of safety is a position is entered @ $0.84, as the next resistance I see would be at $0.8, afterwhich, it would not be nice.

Resistance is some way off, @ $0.95 but then again, since this is not a very volatile counter, no point entering trade, you can WAIT LONG LONG for a sale to be done, unless you compromised on the price.

From my last glance of this company's financial statements, I'm given the impression that this company has very steady income streams and in fact, they are building on their capacity, which would in turn, increase their earning growth.

Personally not vested into this company yet, but I do have the intent to enter this company for long, not a trade. So I'm secretly hoping that the irrational market will further throw this price down, thus increasing my potential dividend yield. =)

Cosco Corp - A 62.5% Drop!!!

2008-03-15T10:36:00.003+08:00

Cosco Corp, big brother in the Shipping Industry. A massive drop from it's lofty heights of $8. Till date, a drop of 62.5%. That's a ugly % drop by any standards. However, this counter also appeared in my shortlist not too long ago, targeted at around $3, again for trade. This price is the gap resistance formed around Jun 07 and has yet been seriously breached.

Similar to Chinamilk, as posted before, this counter is still within is downtrend and has, on numerous occasions tested it's resistance but failing to close about it.

Something that is different from Cosco to ChinaMilk is that there is still a lot of selling pressure. Something that I'd keep in mind and be prudent of if I'm entering a position in this Company. I believe even now, there are still people who are hoping that Cosco will rise to it's once high of $8 and deem that the currect px is cheap, but think again.

1. Even though, fundamentally, this company can be very profitable, but was $8 over-valued then?

2. With the current volume of selling pressure, would it not be better to wait than load up more, hoping to average down?

3. In a selldown, Market is irrational. Selling are down based on emotions more than fair value.

Be prudent. Don't buy based on rumours or "hear-say", they are not accountable for your profits or loss. =) My post here is one such example!

A look at ChinaMilk

2008-03-15T10:26:00.003+08:00

ChinaMilk, a company that produces semen other than milk for sales. Well that's what I was told by LP. Ha!

Did a simple analysis on it as this counter just added itself into my shortlist a few days back. I'm waiting to do a trade in this counter @ 0.65, semmingly the support of this counter, sustained throughout last week.

This counter is still in it's downtrend as seen from the two downwards lines drawn. Something to note, those sticks that shot out of the resistance are caused by gap ups, meaning overnight bullish sentiments but was never sustained. I will further drive into this point later when I post a view on DJ.

$0.84 is currently the price to break before any meaningful reversal. Sentiments on this counter can be considered bullish, judging from it's MACD and RSI.

Of course, with the fact of issues on rising costs, government policies and demand in China, this counter will somehow be affected. I'm not going into it's FA here cause it's take a lot of time and somehow China counters are not really what I'm looking at for long term, YET.

Well, nothin much to conclude but, it'll be in my shortlist for trade for the coming week. =)

A look at STI

2008-03-11T23:55:00.002+08:00

I'm looking foward to a rebound this week. Not because of any particular reason but just that if there is no rebound coming soon, the Jan low will be broken and that won't be a pretty sight!

Today the closing is considered good. Very interesting if you were to compare the reaction of the market after the closing from DJ the night before, HS, Nikkei and STI all ended green, perhaps this is a sign of something to come soon? Let's just see.

As pointed out last night when I was chatting on LP's blog, the triangle was broken with the gap down. But as seen, our index is quite well supported at 2800, tested on 2 occasions and not neglecting the fact that the last closing went above the intra day range on Monday. Good sign but we cannot forget we're still in a volatile market.

I'm not going to go into the other resistance levels on STI but just silently watching it break the nearest resistance perhaps. I'm silently hopeful, although I know I should not be BUT ...... let's just see.

ST Engg

2008-03-10T22:45:00.002+08:00

ST Engg. This defensive counter has just appeared on my shortlist not too long ago. Too bad, I'm not so rich as to stock up this counter, but perhaps I might buy in soon.

TA: With the free fall, from my view, I see support at $3.12, which was almost tested today. From my lines, I think those who know a little bit of TA can roughly get what is on my mind. By the way, I drew those lines in 5 mins. Ha! As someone who is not vested, I have this silent hope that it drops more so that I might be able to collect cheaper =x. No offense!

FA: What actually attracts me to this counter is that, this company has a payout ratio of 100%. I mean, which company can boast that? This can only mean 2 thing.

1. The company cannot expand anymore and excess cash is not useful to it's business.
2. The company is just too well supported and such payout is acceptable to the Board.

I have yet to do a detailed study as I'm still "groping" my way around Business/Fundamental Analysis but soon... hopefully, I can share my knowledge with you people.

Oh! And to add to that, the div is increasing Year-to-Year.

Just sharing. =)

noob: Genting Intl - My view

2008-03-06T23:55:00.002+08:00

Genting Intl, a counter which my dad used to ask me to consider getting because of the IR craze and the fact that it's a casino based industry. Precisely because of the same reasons, I did not bother to look at it. I was reminded of this counter again by, noob, someone who posted in my chatbox asking me to give his my noobish opinions. So here goes.

Dear noob,

If you were to enter this counter @ 0.80+, it's definitely not a good sign technically. If you were to look at the chart, the counter has yet to break it's 200MA, being the nearest resistance. Never mind about the gap down resistance.

The support of 0.615 has been created and has so far, in my opinion, sustained. Not a really bad sign but do note the Bollinger Band tightening. Expect Big movements soon. Perhaps another institutional buying as seen from history when prices were all pushed up in a single day with astonishing volume. Not a good sign.

In general, unless it recovers from the gap down, unless the bollinger band breaks upwards, unless the 200MA is broken, unless the dividend payout is fantastic, unless you own the company, otherwise, I personally would not encourage the purchase of this counter.

Technically, not very good. Fundamentally, it's not my type of business.

Anyway this is just my opinion. It's all up to you.

Perhaps I may be wrong.

Analysis on YangZiJiang

2008-03-05T23:43:00.004+08:00

This is one counter that fell from it's high of $2.80 till now less than $1 in the span of 4 months. I do believe that this counter has caused a lot of people to lose a fair amount of $$.

I've done a simple analysis based on the candlesticks and chart alone, simplified. The important question is, are there telling signs for it's up and down?

To help you understand, I've used Green and Red Arrows to illustate the telling signs.

Red - Signs to buy
Green -Signs to sell

I'll start with the green arrows.

Firstly, a doji with a long tail is formed, signifying a possibility of a bottom and that there is some bullish sentiments on this counter.
Next, there is a breakout from previous high and the price advance a little to $2.25.
Notice the third arrow, breaking the resistance set a around $1.90 with the rounded top over a few days some weeks back.
Lastly, $2.35 gap support was tested again and a doji was formed, bullish still.

Now I'll go to the red arrows.

$2.73 was tested but then again, it did not close above with the intra day price hitting $2.86.
Not a good sign. $2.35 gap support broken, 1st level of resistance broken.
Another strong support is broken at $1.85, the rounded top in Jan'08.
After the $1.85 was broken, 3 days of intensive selling brought about 2 days to strugglt but notice how the price did not even hit $1.60, the last opening price for the 3rd day with consecutive drop.
Lastly, the price of $1.2 was broken. A price where I once posted, the tweezer bottom.

Based on TA, there had been signs. It's quite obvious and seems almost to be shouting at your face. "SELL ME!!!!!', but did hope prevail? Did you lost temporary lost the battle with Mr. Market. Live to fight another day.

'm sure there would be thoughts that say, it's easier to comment based on historical data since it'd happened. But well, if you're trading short term, cutting loss is like buying insurance. Do you buy an insurance and curse when nothing happen to you?

But then again, I do think that based on earning capacity, YZJ should not have lost so much ground. But then again it's a personal opinion. Still looking for signs of bottoming, but will not be rash. A falling knife causes even more damage.

CWT AR for FY07 Not out yet?

2008-03-02T13:42:00.002+08:00

From the FY06 and unaudited reports, CWT seems be be growing fairly well, in fact, it does has room for expansion.

Now I'm waiting to take a look at it's FY07 report and most prob, put my head on the chopping board for this coy, but we'll see till then. Sorry people. =)

Update on LB's queries.

2008-03-01T14:42:00.002+08:00

I'm trying to mail Lian Beng on my queries only to realise that there is no such links. Perhaps this is one reason why Aztech is awarded. Ha!

Nevertheless, I've mailed them to ask for the Point of Contact. Hopefully, I get a reply.

Next Company, CWT. If I have the time.

In the meantime, if any of you has things to discuss, don't feel shy to add me on my msn or email me, under my profile.

My First Valuation of A Company - Lian Beng

2008-03-01T14:04:00.005+08:00

I think I started off on the wrong foot by choosing a construction company to start my valuation. But I do admit that through it's Financial Statements, I get a pretty good sense of it's business. Before this, I bought it as it was trending above 200MA but I think this is going to be another sinking ship soon. Ha!

From the P&L, I do see a lot of questions. Perhaps my inexperience and lack of knowledge, but to answer the questions that I have, I'd be mailing them my queries. Hopefully, they would be like Aztech, prompt in answering, but then again Aztech is awarded Gold for Investor Relations. Ha!

1. The most pressing question that I have is, why is there a loss from discontinued operations amounting to about $2.6m. This amount is substantial, taking out about 20%from their profits. Ouch!

2. Stated in the other income are 2 entries of Gains on sale from Plant and Equipement and also, Negative Goodwill. Why should Goodwill be calculated into Other Operating Income. Net Gains from sales is non business, in this sense, and being prudent, I'd take these amount out, which adds to around $1.2m. Ouch!

As declared, they have an EPS of 77 cents for FY07 but then again, if I were to calculate, their EPS is only around 49 cents. Still, an increase from FY06 of about 9 cents which is still not too bad, increase of about 22%.

One unfriendly aspect of their FS is that I have to do my own % calculation, unlike some companies which I've browsed through, stating clearing the +ve or -ve % compared to the previous FY.

Revenue has came down 17% and Gross Profiut is naturally affected 2%. Isn't this interesting, a big drop in Revenue but only a 2% drop in GP. There could be many reasons to it, which I might not want to speculate into.

I need help on this. I did a NAV on this company to see the Share Price and, "Wa-la", I got the figure of around 6 cents. I did it using the given figures w/o going into details. But why is the Share price so low? Is this normal?? HELP!!! I need enlightenment!! =)

Construction contracts in general, according to FRS 11, is really hard to estimate the exact profts they might make in the year but as the company is paid by % completion. However, One thing I like about Lian Beng is that it is pretty diversified but their core income of more than 80% still comes from it's core business. Not a bad thing but, it might be better if the other streams of income can be improved.

In this valuation, I did not go into the many details like cashflow or BS, but just on their P&L.
My apologies but I'm still learning, but in my coming analysis, I do believe that I should improve.

Maybe I'll touch on this company again but then again, I do have queries on it to carry on.

Coming up this weekend

2008-02-29T22:16:00.003+08:00

A view on the mentioned companies:

1. YangZiJiang
2. Lian Beng
3. CWT

Provided if I have time to do the analysis for all of them. But I'll definitely try to do at least 1, hopefully two.

A look at market

2008-02-28T00:31:00.002+08:00

In times like this, when the market is heading nowhere in particular, news affect the general market sentiments greatly.

For 3 days of DJ, news has "forced" the market to react to the news. Namely, IBM shares buyback, Stagflatation report and the latest, another round of Interest Cut. Are we heading to the 1% rate again? Ha!

STI, as usual, is moving slowly, perhaps cautiously, during these few weeks.

've currently added Singpost to my portfolio and still looking around for bargains, though Singpost is not really one but nevertheless, do let me know if you knwo of any.

Apologise for this very aimless post, but then again, the market is quite boring recently. Nothing exciting, imo. Once again, if you wanna get, buy on supports in times like these. Lotsa shorters out there. Be careful.

Current position of Myself.

2008-02-20T23:19:00.002+08:00

1. I'm almost done with the book, "The Intellligent Investor", and I must say it's a good read, although it can be pretty boring due to the technical terms but being in Accounting helps just a little bit. No regrets on the purchase of this book w/o discount @ $35. Ha! I'll be posting some points which I gather from the read soon, probably, end of this week.

2. If some of you still do not know, we are really in the very volatile period. Don't throw your $$ into counters when everything is rising, that's against the principle of buying low and selling high. Don't you still already get it?

3. I've observed that China plays are exceptionally volatile these 2 days and please think thrice about entering your positions. Heed resistance and support lines on charts. Once again, dun buy in the middle of no where!! Gets you nowhere!

4. I'm currently looking into putting my already very little $$ into defensive counters for yield play. Eyeing SingPost, cheapest monopoly, I think. Any other suggestions, do advice.

5. I'm thinking of doing some reads at the moment and is finding the information all too much. If you're intersted to share knowledge or share the learning burden with me, drop me a mail.

6. Lastly, if you do not know, bonus or rights issue do not improve your net gains although the quantity increase, the worth decreased. Don't get all happy about it.
__________________________________________________________________

Just sharing my current thoughts and situation with all of you.
If I'm wrong anywhere, let me know.
If you wanna share anything with me, drop me a mail, I'll reply. =)

My first step to understanding businesses.

2008-02-19T00:26:00.004+08:00

Today marks the first time I mailed a company on their business. To test the water and their friendliness, I guess it turned out pretty well. Let me show you the test water questions I asked.
_________________________________________________________

Dear Sir,

I am looking through the FY07 report published on sgx.com and I do have a few enquiries. Hopefully, you can enlighted me on my doubts.

1. Aztech has just won a contract which deals with construction materials. Why is there this diversification from the core business of electronics? I am just concern of this diversification is due to the limitation in terms of earnings in the core business or it's a planned move by the management.

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Diversification is part of the Company growth plan. For the core business, we diversify by increasing our product line and our markets. This is an on-going, continuos effort. For the new business, the plan is to increase our revenue and bottomline from a new sector.

2. Why is it that the main stream of income has been changing between America, Europe and such. Is there no main market. So in this sense, since America is doing badly now, is the management expecting the sub prime to affect the earning power of the company?

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Our key markets have always been America, Europe and Asia, although the percentange may vary from year to year.

3. What is the intention of the shares buy-back by the management?

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Share buy back is part of the Group's effort to enhance shareholder value. We buy back share and keep these share as treasury shares.

I am keen to know more as I am thinking of investing in the firm, just a retail investor.

Hopefully, you can clarify my doubts.

Not forgetting, would it be possible for me to receive the FY07 Annual Report. If so, how can I go about doing it.

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] [Pavani Nagarajah - PO] We are in the midst of preparing FY07 annual report. A copy will be sent to all our registered shareholders. Also, once it is ready, it will be available on our website www.aztech.com

Regards
_______________________________________________________

Although the answers are quite plain and simple, at least I know they reply to queries. Now to prepare tougher question like their Margin squeeze and such. ha!

Aztech - My view on it's business

2008-02-17T15:29:00.009+08:00

After 2 postings on the above company, I've decided to search for it's latest AR results and do a brief analysis on it. Nothing complicated, just some basic calculations and common sense, I'd say.

In Operation since 1986.

T/O has been pretty consistent over the last 3 years with an average growth of 21.3%

Div Payout has been consistent

Current Ratio can be improved but has been kept fairly constant at 1.7.

The Net Profit reduction could be due to the increased Capital Expenditure on Non Current Assets.

Question on my mind is the reduced EPS a results of the increase in the Pref Div Payout.

If so, then the reduction is not so bad afterall.

At least the shareholders are willing to take lesser for the investors to take back more. No?

_________________________________________________________

One thing to note is that the above calculations and analysis are just for sharing purposes only.

The information from which I obtain the data is not from the full Annual Report itself but the simplified version from sgx.com and aztech.com

Not forgetting the diversification plans which the management has for the company and the contract which it'd just won, which from the figures would increase their profit substantially.

I should be adding this to my position this week, probably.

Opinions/ Advice anyone?

Aztech

2008-02-16T10:39:00.003+08:00

A few postings ago, I mentioned about being tempted into getting this penny counter, Aztec.

I think I'd queue for it at 0.255, hopefully I'd get it and not have to chase it.

Pending breakout soon though, so worth keeping in the watchlist.

Anyway, the reason for me to get this counter is to have a long term interest in the company.

Possible Market movements next week.

2008-02-16T09:37:00.005+08:00

Dow Jones (US)

This is the most interesting chart amongst the four that I've posted.

1. Flag of 4 days were broken very well and a very quick rise was seen, however, from what I see, this rise has nothing to shout about. It is still playing within the resistance range and has yet to test the resistance created a few days ago. Perhaps, despite the unemployment rates and issues with their property sales, something has to happen to further excite the people before that resistance is breached, maybe we can see it soon, hopefully.

2. Circled out in light blue, is a technical sign whereby there is still a bearish signal, the drop basically wiped out the previous rise, all after Mr Ben's speach. Ha! What influence! Or are there other reasons?

3. However, Friday's closing was quite pleasing. I'm not sure if it can be considered a hammer formation but then, from that stick alone, it is probable that next week, we can see more green on this index, maybe! The last of such formation was seen, pointed out in a blue arrow, in mid Jan. Let's see what can happen next week.

Hang Seng (HK)

Nikkei (Japan)

For the above charts, there is nothing much to shout about. HK is still quite far from anything yet, but then again, this is a group of easily excitable bunch.

Nikkei, on the other hand, is trending near it's resistance and has tested the support again on Friday. So perhaps once again, we can expect more greens next week =). We'll see.

STI (SG)

Home!

1. Other than the gap up being sustained, despite the drop on Thursday night on DJ, we are doing quite alright. Perhaps Mr Lee and the budget did have some effect on the local market, another influencial character. Don't play play!

Generally, for analysis purposes or monitoring purposes, these are the charts I look at. To re-establish the point that each markets open at different timings and each does affect STI, although I've excluded the European market but by then, it's already around 4pm.

From the charts, hopefully we can see a more positive reaction from the market, but there can also be a possibility that it might bouce of the resistance, else there'd be a lot of double bottoms formed. Do keep a look out.

Lastly, I'm reading into valuation and REIT so, if anyone of you knows anything about it, do drop me a mail, teach me! =)

Not forgetting, trade with caution.

Update on Singtel again

2008-02-12T23:01:00.000+08:00

If you'd refered to my previous posting on Singtel, http://bear-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/singtel-very-interesting.html, I'd once again point out the stubborness of this counter.

Once again, it tested it's 200MA on the 06/02/2008 and it bounced back.
Did anyone got onto the boat that turned back? =)

Resistance would be around 3.96 and $4. Not much of a difference though, just another resistance technically in another counter.

Aztech

2008-02-12T22:43:00.000+08:00

I was alerted of this counter when I was browsing through LP's blog, his new post.

At the moment, I'm begining to struggle into the aspect of wealth allocation, although I have none to begin with. But the valuation of a company's worth is definintely worth the effort. Too much knowledge, too little time.

When I complete my current book, I'll post my thoughts on trading, new ideas creeping into my mind recently, still in the stage of upgrading and planning my strategy. Too many choices, too small a brain. ha!

Ok back to Aztech, generally a uptrend. And the recently candlesticks are forming a minor uptrend with resistance @ 0.265. Not a bad counter to consider for the long term, imagine waiting for another 2-3 years and ur capital tripled. Ok, stop dreaming, start planning.

Shares buy-back. Good thing?

Quote:

AZTECH GROUP SECURES CONTRACT FOR THE PROCUREMENT AND SUPPLY
OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL

Singapore, 12 February 2008 – Aztech Systems Ltd (“Aztech”) wishes to announce that its
wholly owned subsidiary, AZ United Pte. Ltd. has secured a contract for the supply of
construction material.

The Contract, which is projected to be executed in three stages is worth a total of
approximately S$250 million for the overall procurement and supply of the material over a
period of three (3) years. The first stage is valued at S$23 million, to be executed over a
period of six (6) months. The first delivery is expected to commence by the end of March
2008. The subsequent two stages of the Contract valued at S$92 million and S$138
million respectively are to be executed upon confirmation from the buyer should the
preceding stages progress satisfactorily.

The Group expects the abovementioned project to have a positive impact on its revenue
and earnings per share for the financial year ending 31 December 2008 and 2009.

Unquote.

Article from Yahoo.sg

2008-02-10T13:51:00.000+08:00

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080210/tbs-markets-stocks-europe-bears-7318940.html

Sometimes, analysts are just crapping, giving people false hopes while they earn big $! ha! If they are really so good and objective without bias to personal gains, they would be working for themselves and not for their firms. Or perhaps, it's my thinking that is corrupted. Ha!

But this article is quite true.
Heed the advice that the primary trend is DOWN.
Dun be too hopeful.

Straits Times

2008-02-10T13:20:00.000+08:00

Straits Times: Overview

As seen, 2900 seems to be the support and if broken we're heading even lower in the next few days. I'm personally looking at 2600-2700 for any significant rally.

Straits Times: Recent Behaviour

Hopefully, a bottom is formed. Else it's another few weeks of agony for most and hope for others, the opposite reactions towards a common event.

Dow Jones

2008-02-06T12:10:00.001+08:00

Dow Jones: Broader view

As I've previously posted, it might be a whipsaw at the last rally. It's too fast for market sentiments to change from bearish to bullish all from a 0.5% rate cute! It's now back to where it is supposed to be, where it left off.

Dow Jones: Narrower View

At 12,780, it's also roughly where the resistance would be, from fibbo retracement. This price stands at around 38.2% of fibbo. Support would thus be, at 11,970. Any lower, we''re heading to a new low. Judging from current circumstances, it's possible. But hopefully, it don't happen.

Perhaps a rebound tonight. Not very positive about it, a shaven bottom.

Waiting for STI's close since it's next opening would be next week. Anything can happen. =)

Eddie Lampert - Who?

2008-02-06T11:31:00.001+08:00

I've been reading Economist pretty regularly as I've subscribed to it. It's pretty much an interesting magazine, except that it seems very wordy but, its much better than TheNewPaper anyway, imo, of course there is a price difference, but it's worth a read.

Eddie Lampert, is compared to the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett. His life has definitely not been smooth and is an almost identical investor to WB himself, except that he runs the business he buys.

This guy, together with WB, and Benjamin Graham, has sort of given me another aspect on how to handle my next few investments. True, TA is a very powerful tool to analyse stocks and enter/exit prices but then again, future earnings and cashflow/liquidity is what keeps a company attractive, at its core.

I'm currently reading, "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, which is really quite hard to understand with my current knowledge, but luckily there's commentary after each chapter. When I'm done, perhaps, I'll do a summarized review on it.

I think it'd be interesting if you could google on his Eddie Lampert and watch how he progress from his current bad patch. Afterall, he took home $1b twice a year for 2 occasions. =) I'm still finding my ground...... Any advice?

Singtel - Very interesting!

2008-02-02T11:20:00.001+08:00

If you're those anti Technical Analysis, (I'm a mixture of both actually) look at this interesting SingTel chart.

It's recent behaviour just caught my eye. Very Interesting.

Notice how it just goes boucing on the 200MA?

TA is speculative? You decide. =)

Lian Beng - 01/02/08

2008-02-02T11:06:00.000+08:00

Ah Beng! Hoe Say Boh!

Seriously, this counter has a pretty tough "life". Once of the only few who manged to stay above its 200MA for such a long time before breaching it only for one day. What does this tells you about this counter? =)

The week's downtrend has led it to the price of $0.555 which is, a strong support, imo. It has been the support since Jan 2007 till date and has yet, seriously breached it. Perhaps, being one of the big brother in the industry is the reason for it's resilience.

I'm actually looking at this counter waiting to get in, perhaps on Monday near it's support price. I've actually done a check on it's dividend payout, which much to my disappointment, is so little! But I'm looking at it long term, I think.

I trust that this industry in Singapore should not die so soon and there's still room to grow their earnings with the new MRT system coming up and blablabla. But then again, if it's an open secret, would the price react to the news then, if you get what I mean.

RSI and MACD is on the up, which is not a bad thing but surprisingly, the price is still on the down. Hmm... think about this. Anyway, I'm just posting my view, the rest is your decision. Let me hear your opinions.

Amazing DJ - 1/2/08

2008-02-02T10:08:00.001+08:00

Dow Jones, Outperformed! Rated by JingXiong. Note the past tense used.

Seriously, I did not expect DJ to break that Resistance turned support line so easily when on the previous day, it tested but the day ended red. That day that I"m talking about is the day when Feds released their rate cut. Check out the graph that day online, if you cannot remember. Anyway, I'm shocked at how fast the sentiments changed.

To top it all off, it broke a 25d MA, not very significant, but relatively important. RSI looks good. MACD looks good too! Is this really a reversal? I'm hesistant. I have my doubts. I expecting it to be back red soon, really. Perhaps because we've been in the red for too long and I'm used to it. ha!

Techically, it's all good. No? You decide. Let me know your views.

My experience thus far

2008-01-30T09:03:00.000+08:00

I would not say that I'm very experienced in the field of trading, afterall I'm just 23. Many of you people who actually visit my blog are much much more experienced and I'm thankful that you still retun to this site.

Personally, I think there is no better time than now, when I actually witness how the market reacts to economics, politics and news. If I'd start to trade earlier during the bull run, I may not learn as much as now. Therefore, this period of volatility allowed me to learn much much more than what I'd initally expected.

I've made lots of stupid trades, losing some $ but I'm bearing those bad trades in mind so that I do not repeat those mistakes, but sadly, I'm not disciplined enough. I still make those mistakes. My resolution for this year is to be a much better trader than the last, so people, share your views with me.

Despite not earning as much as I'd have wanted but I'm happy that I still have my inital capital (school fees to the market) intact. That, to me is sort of a relief. I do hope that all of you would be willing to post more and approach me via mail/msn if your views contradict mine. I'd appreciate that, really.

To me, it's not actually the money that makes me want to learn more, it's getting my analysis right. Egoistic? Perhaps! Ha!!

Young and pretty lady wishes to marry a rich guy

2008-01-30T08:58:00.000+08:00

A young and pretty lady posted this on a popular forum:

Title: What should I do to marry a rich guy?

I’m going to be honest of what I’m going to say here. I’m 25 this year. I’m very pretty, have style and good taste. I wish to marry a guy with $500k annual salary or above. You might say that I’m greedy, but an annual salary of $1M is considered only as middle class in New York. My requirement is not high. Is there anyone in this forum who has an income of $500k annual salary? Are you all married? I wanted to ask: what should I do to marry rich persons like you? Among those I’ve dated, the richest is $250k annual income, and it seems that this is my upper limit. If someone is going to move into high cost residential area on the west of New York City Garden (?), $250k annual income is not enough.

I’m here humbly to ask a few questions:

1) Where do most rich bachelors hang out? (Please list down the names and addresses of bars, restaurant, gym)

2) Which age group should I target?

3) Why most wives of the riches is only average-looking? I’ve met a few girls who doesn’t have looks and are not interesting, but they are able to marry rich guys

4) How do you decide who can be your wife, and who can only be your girlfriend? (my target now is to get married)

Ms. Pretty, Here’s a reply from a Wall Street Financial guy:

Dear Ms. Pretty,I have read your post with great interest. Guess there are lots of girls out there who have similar questions like yours. Please allow me to analyze your situation as a professional investor. My annual income is more than $500k, which meets your requirement, so I hope everyone believes that I’m not wasting time here.

From the standpoint of a business person, it is a bad decision to marry you. The answer is very simple, so let m e explain. Put the details aside, what you’re trying to do is an exchange of “beauty” and “money”: Person A provides beauty, and Person B pays for it, fair and square. However, there’s a deadly problem here, your beauty will fade, but my money will not be gone without any good reason. The fact is, my income might increase from year to year, but you can’t be prettier year after year. Hence from the viewpoint of economics, I am an appreciation asset, and you are depreciation asset. It’s not just normal depreciation, but exponential depreciation.

If that is your only asset, your value will be much worried 10 years laterBy the terms we use in Wall Street, every trading has a position, dating with you is also a “trading position”. I f the trade value dropped we will sell it and it is not a good idea to keep it for long term – same goes with the marriage that you wanted. It might be cruel to say this, but in order to make a wiser decision any assets with great depreciation value will be sold or “leased”.

Anyone with over $500k annual income is not a fool; we would only date you, but will not marry you. I would advice that you forget looking for any clues to marry a rich guy. And by the way, you could make yourself to become a rich person with $500k annual income. This has better chance than finding a rich fool. Hope this reply helps.

If you are interested in “leasing” services, do contact mesigned, J.P. Morgan

Interesting Monday - 28.01.2008

2008-01-28T00:15:00.002+08:00

DJ closed unconvincingly on Friday.
STI closed green on Friday, unconvincingly too I'd say.

There had been a lot of buy ups on Friday.
Monday, Gap down perhaps.

Short on Monday or Intra day on Monday or Stay away. Be careful

Fed's meeting coming end of January, will definitely affect the momentum of the market, another cut? Ha!

A quiet Monday perhaps. Let's see

Interesting Monday.

2008-01-28T00:15:00.001+08:00

Don't throw away your hard earned $

2008-01-26T11:58:00.001+08:00

For the last 2 days, I've been like an intra day trader.

On Thursday, the morning rush was good.
On Friday, the afternoon rush was good.

It's mentally distracting when I'm working, especially. Nevertheless, ended up green. Phew~

If you really wan to buy, desperate to buy, cannot don't buy, do only buy at support levels. Don't anyhow buy. If there's any more drop from the new positions, CUT LOSS! Don't hold and hope. Don't be like me! =D

Dow Jones Morning Latest!

2008-01-26T11:31:00.001+08:00

Firstly on STI:

STI had 4 good days this week. But as previously posted, the resistance would be the gap down at 3151. In theory, it has broken that price, closing at around 3153. This is definitely not a convincing break, so be very careful.

In fact, I was very tempted to add to my position and HOPE that the momentum would continue into monday, but after 5 mins of thought, I decided otherwise. It's too risky. If I were add on to my position with such a weak closing, I'm almost close to gambling, which should not be the case. The probability of what I would HOPE to happen is too low, rather not convincing.

Uncle DOW JONES:

Actually, has the buying trend been to shortlived? Another dip, testing around 12450 AGAIN. This resistance has been tested thrice in 7 days. Not a very good sign huh!

After 2 days of good days, Friday's dip effectively "cancelled" out Thursday's gain. This I think is rather significant to note. How significant, I do not know how to quantify it, but it gives us an idea of the mentality of the market. Will the tweezer at 11,632 be tested again, or broken just like that one that was formed on 26th Nov 2007?

Gap down on Monday, perhaps?

You decide. Be careful.

My analysis on STI - 24/1/08

2008-01-24T23:50:00.001+08:00

Is this really a rebound.

Technically, STI was able to stay above it's flag range today. Out of it's downtrend pattern. But something which is not very convincing is that, with it volume, why is STI is not showing the supposedly long white candlestick. It close quite hesistantly but do also note HSI's performance near closing, when down -500+ points.

3151 is still the point to cover up, a gap down. This number was tested thrice. Still a point to beat.

A friend did inform me of a Tweezer Bottom on DJ, a powerful signal technically, but I still have my reservations. As usual, in trading, there's nothin absolute, just don't go against the trend and be careful and flexible.

Fed Cuts Interest Rate 3/4 of a Point

2008-01-22T22:58:00.001+08:00

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/fed_interest_rates.html

Isn't this just desperate?

Imagine this, what if DJ continues to show negative signals?
Are they going to their rates even further as mentioned?

Janet: As requested - SembCorp

2008-01-22T22:42:00.001+08:00

Well, at a time like this, seriously, all stocks are not in good shape. Chartwise, it definitely bad. The selling will continue so long as the problems are not solved. SembCorp is not the only one showing such negative signs.

A few good things to point out on this counter would be that, it's range tested Fibbo 38.2% at around $4.29 and rebounded. However, the question would be, could this price be a strong support and can the price bounce along it?

Based on current situation, it's difficult. All eyes would be on the Feds. The interest cuts may not be a good thing in the long term, bringing in the concern of future inflation rates.

Another point is that, the price range is still within the flag, within the range as seen from the 2 lines drawn diagonally downwards. It's still in the range, not sure if it's a good thing also though. But at least, it did not fall out of the flag in today's trade, despite testing it.

At the current moment, it'd be better to just watch everything unfold and prepare to respond when there is a bottom, reversal signal.

Just be patient.