Thursday, June 11, 2009

I will attempt to do a reflection of what happened since our last bull run and the events that occured during this period. For those you who have followed the events closely might find this boring, so just bear with me.


I might take a few posts to complete this series. For those of you who are keen, do check back at this site, for new posts, weekly.
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In the year end of 2008, the credit crunch, threatened to be Wall Street’s biggest crisis since the Great Depression. Hundreds of billions in mortgage-related investments soured and reputable investment banks crumbled.

Borrowings almost went to a stop due to liquidity worries affecting businesses of all sizes.

In response, the FED adopted a $700b Bailout Plan to reassure the market and improve the liquidity but the crisis began to spread to Europe and emerging markets. Governments, all over the world, scrambled to save the economy, guaranteed deposits and came up with a coordinated response.

“The Roots”

The last credit crisis is the burst of the tech bubble of the late 1990’s. Sock market began a steep decline in 2000 and US went into recession the following year and interest rates were sharply in hope to limit the damage.

Due to the lower interest rates, houses became cheaper and demand for homes increased, sending prices up. It also gave homeowners the opportunities to refinance their loans.

Things turned sour when home buyers had to leverage themselves to the max to make a purchase. Defaults began to rise in 2006, but lending/borrowing did not slow. The highly intelligent institutions, Banks and other financial institutions, devised complex financial instruments to distribute and resell the mortgage-backed securities and to hedge against any risks.

“The First Bomb”

The first bomb was when2 hedge funds owned by the MIGHTY Bear Stearns collapse. Foreclosures, in fact, helped speed up the fall of housing prices, and default on mortgages increased.

In a very bold move, the Fed helped in “closing the deal” by selling Bear Sterns to JP Morgan at the initial price of USD $2/share. This amount I think/read/assume should be lower than the price of the Manhattan Office building, Bear Stearns owned.

“The Giants”

In August, stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went into a free fall and the US government got concerned. Well, who won’t when your 2 giants seems to be in a spiral so in Sept, US Treasury, announced it’s taking over.

“It never rains but pours.” In Sept again, talks to salvage Lehman Bro broke down and the news of this investment giant’s collapse sent shockwaves throughout the globe, not only the financial systems. In the same time frame, Merrill Lynch another GIANT, sold itself to Bank of American to avoid bankruptcy. At this point, things became very clear. All hopes seemed lost.

In the same month, American Insurance Group, was thankfully bailed out by FED for $85b, due to it’s exposure in exotic securities. This led to DJI falling a good 500 points and also became an opportunity for traders to bet on a government rescue and made good money out of it.

Such companies which were supposed to be known for it’s capital management intelligence, failed in their own playing field.

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Long story... to be continued.

1 comments:

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER FOUR DOLLARS said...

The bailout of major us banks is another terrible blunder borne by the american taxpayers large money center banks have made many mistakes over the years and know that in the end the government will always come to their aid in a crisis.

 

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