All in a day's work

I am sure all of you would be familiar with these 2 charts.

STI:



5 rising days
4 days buying strength
Trading on support of 2960

Dow Jones:



Broke support of uptrend.
4 "red" days
4 days of selling volume

Does this make you think? It didn't for me. =)

Comments/ Advice greatly appreciated.

Honestly, I have my doubts even with the 400+ points rally.

Take your time to buy =)

I'm trying at the moment, to build a portfolio that generates reasonably stable cash inflow in the next 5 years.

At the moment, I'm looking into REITS, namely,

1. Allco Reit (Due to the worldwide area diversification in pty portfolio)
2. Suntec Reit (Holding SG pty)
3. K-Reit (Holding SG pty)
4. First Reit (Medical Pty worldwide)

I'll most probably pick one/two of the above to be added to my burgeoning portfolio.

Things to consider for REITs,

1. Economic Moat
2. Income Streams
3. Payout Ratio

Hopefully I'll get these companies sorted out soon enough.
But of couse, I'll still be trading in the meantime.
Anyone who might be interested to learn together, drop me a mail =)

STI, nothing interesting! Biong Biong Biong!

Support at 2800, still holding. Flat day on Monday, perhaps?

Anyway, I just want to point out the fact that although there are rebounds off 2800, but the peak is getting lower, a point of concern as support may not hold for long. Nothing exciting, until it clears 2150, imo, the nearest resistance. Perhaps, 2800 can still hold for Monday as all eyes would be on the FED CUT, coming this week. Perhaps only perhaps. =)

As posted in one of the posts this weekend, I mentioned about talking about Dow Jones and, here goes.

Support @ 11,700.
Downtrend in progress obviously.

As highlighted in blue, notice how rallies were not sustained. I would not spend too much time explaining on them. Lazy =)

Latest downtrend still in check, tested but not broken. Bad news but nevertheless, the support of 11,700 still holds, probably a rebound after 18th March and Monday still being a RED day? Well, that's what I think based on TA.

FA wise, it's just another stop gap solution to their problem.
Avoid Recession, Bother about inflation later, when greenbacks are depreciating? Problem still lingers...... Just my personal opinion.

I'm sure some of you who might be reading this post right now, did dumb your positions upon hearing the news of the possible court case regarding the auctioning of their assets. Intra day movement, on the day of news release, went to $0.8.

In fact last Friday, I was thinking of doing a trade on this counter but at the entry price of $0.93, the temp support for this counter, which in my opinion, provides an acceptable margin of safety.
But when I turned on my com at work, the price went up to 1.1+, GREAT!

Anyway, I've two links with regards to the news below, if you're interested.

The reason for the Gap down:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aX6GDh_CK9Tk

The reason for the Gap up:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080314/tbs-markets-singapore-stocks-a5a65c6.html

How will investors now view them? Sigh, If only I'd looked at this chart, a day earlier. Ha!
Well, IF ONLY. =)

This is what I use to console myself, a quote from KAY, "It's okay to miss a few, cause, the market last longer than you."

CWT. A Logistic Company by nature. I once mentioned that I wanted to do a study on this company, but at the moment, I really cannot find the time to do it. My apologies.

Anyway, based on TA this chart is "pretty" in my opinion. The recent prices tested the resistance and support, so we are in for some movement soon, perhaps next week I hope.

At the last closing, the price sat nicely @ $0.84, a support formed recently. There'd be some margin of safety is a position is entered @ $0.84, as the next resistance I see would be at $0.8, afterwhich, it would not be nice.

Resistance is some way off, @ $0.95 but then again, since this is not a very volatile counter, no point entering trade, you can WAIT LONG LONG for a sale to be done, unless you compromised on the price.

From my last glance of this company's financial statements, I'm given the impression that this company has very steady income streams and in fact, they are building on their capacity, which would in turn, increase their earning growth.

Personally not vested into this company yet, but I do have the intent to enter this company for long, not a trade. So I'm secretly hoping that the irrational market will further throw this price down, thus increasing my potential dividend yield. =)

ChinaMilk, a company that produces semen other than milk for sales. Well that's what I was told by LP. Ha!

Did a simple analysis on it as this counter just added itself into my shortlist a few days back. I'm waiting to do a trade in this counter @ 0.65, semmingly the support of this counter, sustained throughout last week.

This counter is still in it's downtrend as seen from the two downwards lines drawn. Something to note, those sticks that shot out of the resistance are caused by gap ups, meaning overnight bullish sentiments but was never sustained. I will further drive into this point later when I post a view on DJ.

$0.84 is currently the price to break before any meaningful reversal. Sentiments on this counter can be considered bullish, judging from it's MACD and RSI.

Of course, with the fact of issues on rising costs, government policies and demand in China, this counter will somehow be affected. I'm not going into it's FA here cause it's take a lot of time and somehow China counters are not really what I'm looking at for long term, YET.

Well, nothin much to conclude but, it'll be in my shortlist for trade for the coming week. =)

I'm looking foward to a rebound this week. Not because of any particular reason but just that if there is no rebound coming soon, the Jan low will be broken and that won't be a pretty sight!

Today the closing is considered good. Very interesting if you were to compare the reaction of the market after the closing from DJ the night before, HS, Nikkei and STI all ended green, perhaps this is a sign of something to come soon? Let's just see.

As pointed out last night when I was chatting on LP's blog, the triangle was broken with the gap down. But as seen, our index is quite well supported at 2800, tested on 2 occasions and not neglecting the fact that the last closing went above the intra day range on Monday. Good sign but we cannot forget we're still in a volatile market.

I'm not going to go into the other resistance levels on STI but just silently watching it break the nearest resistance perhaps. I'm silently hopeful, although I know I should not be BUT ...... let's just see.

ST Engg. This defensive counter has just appeared on my shortlist not too long ago. Too bad, I'm not so rich as to stock up this counter, but perhaps I might buy in soon.

TA: With the free fall, from my view, I see support at $3.12, which was almost tested today. From my lines, I think those who know a little bit of TA can roughly get what is on my mind. By the way, I drew those lines in 5 mins. Ha! As someone who is not vested, I have this silent hope that it drops more so that I might be able to collect cheaper =x. No offense!

FA: What actually attracts me to this counter is that, this company has a payout ratio of 100%. I mean, which company can boast that? This can only mean 2 thing.

1. The company cannot expand anymore and excess cash is not useful to it's business.
2. The company is just too well supported and such payout is acceptable to the Board.

I have yet to do a detailed study as I'm still "groping" my way around Business/Fundamental Analysis but soon... hopefully, I can share my knowledge with you people.

Oh! And to add to that, the div is increasing Year-to-Year.

Just sharing. =)

Genting Intl, a counter which my dad used to ask me to consider getting because of the IR craze and the fact that it's a casino based industry. Precisely because of the same reasons, I did not bother to look at it. I was reminded of this counter again by, noob, someone who posted in my chatbox asking me to give his my noobish opinions. So here goes.



Dear noob,

If you were to enter this counter @ 0.80+, it's definitely not a good sign technically. If you were to look at the chart, the counter has yet to break it's 200MA, being the nearest resistance. Never mind about the gap down resistance.

The support of 0.615 has been created and has so far, in my opinion, sustained. Not a really bad sign but do note the Bollinger Band tightening. Expect Big movements soon. Perhaps another institutional buying as seen from history when prices were all pushed up in a single day with astonishing volume. Not a good sign.

In general, unless it recovers from the gap down, unless the bollinger band breaks upwards, unless the 200MA is broken, unless the dividend payout is fantastic, unless you own the company, otherwise, I personally would not encourage the purchase of this counter.

Technically, not very good. Fundamentally, it's not my type of business.

Anyway this is just my opinion. It's all up to you.

Perhaps I may be wrong.

This is one counter that fell from it's high of $2.80 till now less than $1 in the span of 4 months. I do believe that this counter has caused a lot of people to lose a fair amount of $$.

I've done a simple analysis based on the candlesticks and chart alone, simplified. The important question is, are there telling signs for it's up and down?

To help you understand, I've used Green and Red Arrows to illustate the telling signs.

Red - Signs to buy
Green -Signs to sell

I'll start with the green arrows.

• Firstly, a doji with a long tail is formed, signifying a possibility of a bottom and that there is some bullish sentiments on this counter.
• Next, there is a breakout from previous high and the price advance a little to $2.25.
• Notice the third arrow, breaking the resistance set a around $1.90 with the rounded top over a few days some weeks back.
• Lastly, $2.35 gap support was tested again and a doji was formed, bullish still.

Now I'll go to the red arrows.

• $2.73 was tested but then again, it did not close above with the intra day price hitting $2.86.
• Not a good sign. $2.35 gap support broken, 1st level of resistance broken.
• Another strong support is broken at $1.85, the rounded top in Jan'08.
• After the $1.85 was broken, 3 days of intensive selling brought about 2 days to strugglt but notice how the price did not even hit $1.60, the last opening price for the 3rd day with consecutive drop.
• Lastly, the price of $1.2 was broken. A price where I once posted, the tweezer bottom.

Based on TA, there had been signs. It's quite obvious and seems almost to be shouting at your face. "SELL ME!!!!!', but did hope prevail? Did you lost temporary lost the battle with Mr. Market. Live to fight another day.

'm sure there would be thoughts that say, it's easier to comment based on historical data since it'd happened. But well, if you're trading short term, cutting loss is like buying insurance. Do you buy an insurance and curse when nothing happen to you?

But then again, I do think that based on earning capacity, YZJ should not have lost so much ground. But then again it's a personal opinion. Still looking for signs of bottoming, but will not be rash. A falling knife causes even more damage.

From the FY06 and unaudited reports, CWT seems be be growing fairly well, in fact, it does has room for expansion.

Now I'm waiting to take a look at it's FY07 report and most prob, put my head on the chopping board for this coy, but we'll see till then. Sorry people. =)

I'm trying to mail Lian Beng on my queries only to realise that there is no such links. Perhaps this is one reason why Aztech is awarded. Ha!

Nevertheless, I've mailed them to ask for the Point of Contact. Hopefully, I get a reply.

Next Company, CWT. If I have the time.

In the meantime, if any of you has things to discuss, don't feel shy to add me on my msn or email me, under my profile.

I think I started off on the wrong foot by choosing a construction company to start my valuation. But I do admit that through it's Financial Statements, I get a pretty good sense of it's business. Before this, I bought it as it was trending above 200MA but I think this is going to be another sinking ship soon. Ha!



From the P&L, I do see a lot of questions. Perhaps my inexperience and lack of knowledge, but to answer the questions that I have, I'd be mailing them my queries. Hopefully, they would be like Aztech, prompt in answering, but then again Aztech is awarded Gold for Investor Relations. Ha!

1. The most pressing question that I have is, why is there a loss from discontinued operations amounting to about $2.6m. This amount is substantial, taking out about 20%from their profits. Ouch!

2. Stated in the other income are 2 entries of Gains on sale from Plant and Equipement and also, Negative Goodwill. Why should Goodwill be calculated into Other Operating Income. Net Gains from sales is non business, in this sense, and being prudent, I'd take these amount out, which adds to around $1.2m. Ouch!

As declared, they have an EPS of 77 cents for FY07 but then again, if I were to calculate, their EPS is only around 49 cents. Still, an increase from FY06 of about 9 cents which is still not too bad, increase of about 22%.

One unfriendly aspect of their FS is that I have to do my own % calculation, unlike some companies which I've browsed through, stating clearing the +ve or -ve % compared to the previous FY.

Revenue has came down 17% and Gross Profiut is naturally affected 2%. Isn't this interesting, a big drop in Revenue but only a 2% drop in GP. There could be many reasons to it, which I might not want to speculate into.

I need help on this. I did a NAV on this company to see the Share Price and, "Wa-la", I got the figure of around 6 cents. I did it using the given figures w/o going into details. But why is the Share price so low? Is this normal?? HELP!!! I need enlightenment!! =)

Construction contracts in general, according to FRS 11, is really hard to estimate the exact profts they might make in the year but as the company is paid by % completion. However, One thing I like about Lian Beng is that it is pretty diversified but their core income of more than 80% still comes from it's core business. Not a bad thing but, it might be better if the other streams of income can be improved.



In this valuation, I did not go into the many details like cashflow or BS, but just on their P&L.
My apologies but I'm still learning, but in my coming analysis, I do believe that I should improve.

Maybe I'll touch on this company again but then again, I do have queries on it to carry on.