All in a day's work

If you'd refered to my previous posting on Singtel, http://bear-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/singtel-very-interesting.html, I'd once again point out the stubborness of this counter.

Once again, it tested it's 200MA on the 06/02/2008 and it bounced back.
Did anyone got onto the boat that turned back? =)

Resistance would be around 3.96 and $4. Not much of a difference though, just another resistance technically in another counter.

I was alerted of this counter when I was browsing through LP's blog, his new post.

At the moment, I'm begining to struggle into the aspect of wealth allocation, although I have none to begin with. But the valuation of a company's worth is definintely worth the effort. Too much knowledge, too little time.

When I complete my current book, I'll post my thoughts on trading, new ideas creeping into my mind recently, still in the stage of upgrading and planning my strategy. Too many choices, too small a brain. ha!

Ok back to Aztech, generally a uptrend. And the recently candlesticks are forming a minor uptrend with resistance @ 0.265. Not a bad counter to consider for the long term, imagine waiting for another 2-3 years and ur capital tripled. Ok, stop dreaming, start planning.





Shares buy-back. Good thing?


Quote:

AZTECH GROUP SECURES CONTRACT FOR THE PROCUREMENT AND SUPPLY
OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL

Singapore, 12 February 2008 – Aztech Systems Ltd (“Aztech”) wishes to announce that its
wholly owned subsidiary, AZ United Pte. Ltd. has secured a contract for the supply of
construction material.

The Contract, which is projected to be executed in three stages is worth a total of
approximately S$250 million for the overall procurement and supply of the material over a
period of three (3) years. The first stage is valued at S$23 million, to be executed over a
period of six (6) months. The first delivery is expected to commence by the end of March
2008. The subsequent two stages of the Contract valued at S$92 million and S$138
million respectively are to be executed upon confirmation from the buyer should the
preceding stages progress satisfactorily.

The Group expects the abovementioned project to have a positive impact on its revenue
and earnings per share for the financial year ending 31 December 2008 and 2009.

Unquote.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080210/tbs-markets-stocks-europe-bears-7318940.html

Sometimes, analysts are just crapping, giving people false hopes while they earn big $! ha! If they are really so good and objective without bias to personal gains, they would be working for themselves and not for their firms. Or perhaps, it's my thinking that is corrupted. Ha!

But this article is quite true.
Heed the advice that the primary trend is DOWN.
Dun be too hopeful.

Straits Times: Overview



As seen, 2900 seems to be the support and if broken we're heading even lower in the next few days. I'm personally looking at 2600-2700 for any significant rally.

Straits Times: Recent Behaviour


Hopefully, a bottom is formed. Else it's another few weeks of agony for most and hope for others, the opposite reactions towards a common event.

Dow Jones: Broader view



As I've previously posted, it might be a whipsaw at the last rally. It's too fast for market sentiments to change from bearish to bullish all from a 0.5% rate cute! It's now back to where it is supposed to be, where it left off.

Dow Jones: Narrower View


At 12,780, it's also roughly where the resistance would be, from fibbo retracement. This price stands at around 38.2% of fibbo. Support would thus be, at 11,970. Any lower, we''re heading to a new low. Judging from current circumstances, it's possible. But hopefully, it don't happen.

Perhaps a rebound tonight. Not very positive about it, a shaven bottom.

Waiting for STI's close since it's next opening would be next week. Anything can happen. =)

I've been reading Economist pretty regularly as I've subscribed to it. It's pretty much an interesting magazine, except that it seems very wordy but, its much better than TheNewPaper anyway, imo, of course there is a price difference, but it's worth a read.

Eddie Lampert, is compared to the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett. His life has definitely not been smooth and is an almost identical investor to WB himself, except that he runs the business he buys.

This guy, together with WB, and Benjamin Graham, has sort of given me another aspect on how to handle my next few investments. True, TA is a very powerful tool to analyse stocks and enter/exit prices but then again, future earnings and cashflow/liquidity is what keeps a company attractive, at its core.



I'm currently reading, "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, which is really quite hard to understand with my current knowledge, but luckily there's commentary after each chapter. When I'm done, perhaps, I'll do a summarized review on it.

I think it'd be interesting if you could google on his Eddie Lampert and watch how he progress from his current bad patch. Afterall, he took home $1b twice a year for 2 occasions. =) I'm still finding my ground...... Any advice?

If you're those anti Technical Analysis, (I'm a mixture of both actually) look at this interesting SingTel chart.

It's recent behaviour just caught my eye. Very Interesting.

Notice how it just goes boucing on the 200MA?

TA is speculative? You decide. =)

Ah Beng! Hoe Say Boh!

Seriously, this counter has a pretty tough "life". Once of the only few who manged to stay above its 200MA for such a long time before breaching it only for one day. What does this tells you about this counter? =)

The week's downtrend has led it to the price of $0.555 which is, a strong support, imo. It has been the support since Jan 2007 till date and has yet, seriously breached it. Perhaps, being one of the big brother in the industry is the reason for it's resilience.

I'm actually looking at this counter waiting to get in, perhaps on Monday near it's support price. I've actually done a check on it's dividend payout, which much to my disappointment, is so little! But I'm looking at it long term, I think.

I trust that this industry in Singapore should not die so soon and there's still room to grow their earnings with the new MRT system coming up and blablabla. But then again, if it's an open secret, would the price react to the news then, if you get what I mean.

RSI and MACD is on the up, which is not a bad thing but surprisingly, the price is still on the down. Hmm... think about this. Anyway, I'm just posting my view, the rest is your decision. Let me hear your opinions.

Dow Jones, Outperformed! Rated by JingXiong. Note the past tense used.

Seriously, I did not expect DJ to break that Resistance turned support line so easily when on the previous day, it tested but the day ended red. That day that I"m talking about is the day when Feds released their rate cut. Check out the graph that day online, if you cannot remember. Anyway, I'm shocked at how fast the sentiments changed.

To top it all off, it broke a 25d MA, not very significant, but relatively important. RSI looks good. MACD looks good too! Is this really a reversal? I'm hesistant. I have my doubts. I expecting it to be back red soon, really. Perhaps because we've been in the red for too long and I'm used to it. ha!

Techically, it's all good. No? You decide. Let me know your views.

I would not say that I'm very experienced in the field of trading, afterall I'm just 23. Many of you people who actually visit my blog are much much more experienced and I'm thankful that you still retun to this site.

Personally, I think there is no better time than now, when I actually witness how the market reacts to economics, politics and news. If I'd start to trade earlier during the bull run, I may not learn as much as now. Therefore, this period of volatility allowed me to learn much much more than what I'd initally expected.

I've made lots of stupid trades, losing some $ but I'm bearing those bad trades in mind so that I do not repeat those mistakes, but sadly, I'm not disciplined enough. I still make those mistakes. My resolution for this year is to be a much better trader than the last, so people, share your views with me.

Despite not earning as much as I'd have wanted but I'm happy that I still have my inital capital (school fees to the market) intact. That, to me is sort of a relief. I do hope that all of you would be willing to post more and approach me via mail/msn if your views contradict mine. I'd appreciate that, really.

To me, it's not actually the money that makes me want to learn more, it's getting my analysis right. Egoistic? Perhaps! Ha!!