All in a day's work

A view on the mentioned companies:

1. YangZiJiang
2. Lian Beng
3. CWT

Provided if I have time to do the analysis for all of them. But I'll definitely try to do at least 1, hopefully two.

In times like this, when the market is heading nowhere in particular, news affect the general market sentiments greatly.

For 3 days of DJ, news has "forced" the market to react to the news. Namely, IBM shares buyback, Stagflatation report and the latest, another round of Interest Cut. Are we heading to the 1% rate again? Ha!

STI, as usual, is moving slowly, perhaps cautiously, during these few weeks.

've currently added Singpost to my portfolio and still looking around for bargains, though Singpost is not really one but nevertheless, do let me know if you knwo of any.

Apologise for this very aimless post, but then again, the market is quite boring recently. Nothing exciting, imo. Once again, if you wanna get, buy on supports in times like these. Lotsa shorters out there. Be careful.

1. I'm almost done with the book, "The Intellligent Investor", and I must say it's a good read, although it can be pretty boring due to the technical terms but being in Accounting helps just a little bit. No regrets on the purchase of this book w/o discount @ $35. Ha! I'll be posting some points which I gather from the read soon, probably, end of this week.

2. If some of you still do not know, we are really in the very volatile period. Don't throw your $$ into counters when everything is rising, that's against the principle of buying low and selling high. Don't you still already get it?

3. I've observed that China plays are exceptionally volatile these 2 days and please think thrice about entering your positions. Heed resistance and support lines on charts. Once again, dun buy in the middle of no where!! Gets you nowhere!

4. I'm currently looking into putting my already very little $$ into defensive counters for yield play. Eyeing SingPost, cheapest monopoly, I think. Any other suggestions, do advice.

5. I'm thinking of doing some reads at the moment and is finding the information all too much. If you're intersted to share knowledge or share the learning burden with me, drop me a mail.

6. Lastly, if you do not know, bonus or rights issue do not improve your net gains although the quantity increase, the worth decreased. Don't get all happy about it.
__________________________________________________________________

Just sharing my current thoughts and situation with all of you.
If I'm wrong anywhere, let me know.
If you wanna share anything with me, drop me a mail, I'll reply. =)

Today marks the first time I mailed a company on their business. To test the water and their friendliness, I guess it turned out pretty well. Let me show you the test water questions I asked.
_________________________________________________________

Dear Sir,

I am looking through the FY07 report published on sgx.com and I do have a few enquiries. Hopefully, you can enlighted me on my doubts.

1. Aztech has just won a contract which deals with construction materials. Why is there this diversification from the core business of electronics? I am just concern of this diversification is due to the limitation in terms of earnings in the core business or it's a planned move by the management.

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Diversification is part of the Company growth plan. For the core business, we diversify by increasing our product line and our markets. This is an on-going, continuos effort. For the new business, the plan is to increase our revenue and bottomline from a new sector.

2. Why is it that the main stream of income has been changing between America, Europe and such. Is there no main market. So in this sense, since America is doing badly now, is the management expecting the sub prime to affect the earning power of the company?

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Our key markets have always been America, Europe and Asia, although the percentange may vary from year to year.

3. What is the intention of the shares buy-back by the management?

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Share buy back is part of the Group's effort to enhance shareholder value. We buy back share and keep these share as treasury shares.

I am keen to know more as I am thinking of investing in the firm, just a retail investor.

Hopefully, you can clarify my doubts.

Not forgetting, would it be possible for me to receive the FY07 Annual Report. If so, how can I go about doing it.

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] [Pavani Nagarajah - PO] We are in the midst of preparing FY07 annual report. A copy will be sent to all our registered shareholders. Also, once it is ready, it will be available on our website www.aztech.com

Regards
_______________________________________________________

Although the answers are quite plain and simple, at least I know they reply to queries. Now to prepare tougher question like their Margin squeeze and such. ha!

After 2 postings on the above company, I've decided to search for it's latest AR results and do a brief analysis on it. Nothing complicated, just some basic calculations and common sense, I'd say.

• In Operation since 1986.


• T/O has been pretty consistent over the last 3 years with an average growth of 21.3%

• Div Payout has been consistent

• Current Ratio can be improved but has been kept fairly constant at 1.7.


• The Net Profit reduction could be due to the increased Capital Expenditure on Non Current Assets.

• Question on my mind is the reduced EPS a results of the increase in the Pref Div Payout.

If so, then the reduction is not so bad afterall.

At least the shareholders are willing to take lesser for the investors to take back more. No?

_________________________________________________________

One thing to note is that the above calculations and analysis are just for sharing purposes only.

The information from which I obtain the data is not from the full Annual Report itself but the simplified version from sgx.com and aztech.com

Not forgetting the diversification plans which the management has for the company and the contract which it'd just won, which from the figures would increase their profit substantially.

I should be adding this to my position this week, probably.

Opinions/ Advice anyone?

A few postings ago, I mentioned about being tempted into getting this penny counter, Aztec.

I think I'd queue for it at 0.255, hopefully I'd get it and not have to chase it.

Pending breakout soon though, so worth keeping in the watchlist.

Anyway, the reason for me to get this counter is to have a long term interest in the company.

Dow Jones (US)

This is the most interesting chart amongst the four that I've posted.

1. Flag of 4 days were broken very well and a very quick rise was seen, however, from what I see, this rise has nothing to shout about. It is still playing within the resistance range and has yet to test the resistance created a few days ago. Perhaps, despite the unemployment rates and issues with their property sales, something has to happen to further excite the people before that resistance is breached, maybe we can see it soon, hopefully.

2. Circled out in light blue, is a technical sign whereby there is still a bearish signal, the drop basically wiped out the previous rise, all after Mr Ben's speach. Ha! What influence! Or are there other reasons?

3. However, Friday's closing was quite pleasing. I'm not sure if it can be considered a hammer formation but then, from that stick alone, it is probable that next week, we can see more green on this index, maybe! The last of such formation was seen, pointed out in a blue arrow, in mid Jan. Let's see what can happen next week.

Hang Seng (HK)

If you'd refered to my previous posting on Singtel, http://bear-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/singtel-very-interesting.html, I'd once again point out the stubborness of this counter.

Once again, it tested it's 200MA on the 06/02/2008 and it bounced back.
Did anyone got onto the boat that turned back? =)

Resistance would be around 3.96 and $4. Not much of a difference though, just another resistance technically in another counter.

I was alerted of this counter when I was browsing through LP's blog, his new post.

At the moment, I'm begining to struggle into the aspect of wealth allocation, although I have none to begin with. But the valuation of a company's worth is definintely worth the effort. Too much knowledge, too little time.

When I complete my current book, I'll post my thoughts on trading, new ideas creeping into my mind recently, still in the stage of upgrading and planning my strategy. Too many choices, too small a brain. ha!

Ok back to Aztech, generally a uptrend. And the recently candlesticks are forming a minor uptrend with resistance @ 0.265. Not a bad counter to consider for the long term, imagine waiting for another 2-3 years and ur capital tripled. Ok, stop dreaming, start planning.





Shares buy-back. Good thing?


Quote:

AZTECH GROUP SECURES CONTRACT FOR THE PROCUREMENT AND SUPPLY
OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL

Singapore, 12 February 2008 – Aztech Systems Ltd (“Aztech”) wishes to announce that its
wholly owned subsidiary, AZ United Pte. Ltd. has secured a contract for the supply of
construction material.

The Contract, which is projected to be executed in three stages is worth a total of
approximately S$250 million for the overall procurement and supply of the material over a
period of three (3) years. The first stage is valued at S$23 million, to be executed over a
period of six (6) months. The first delivery is expected to commence by the end of March
2008. The subsequent two stages of the Contract valued at S$92 million and S$138
million respectively are to be executed upon confirmation from the buyer should the
preceding stages progress satisfactorily.

The Group expects the abovementioned project to have a positive impact on its revenue
and earnings per share for the financial year ending 31 December 2008 and 2009.

Unquote.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080210/tbs-markets-stocks-europe-bears-7318940.html

Sometimes, analysts are just crapping, giving people false hopes while they earn big $! ha! If they are really so good and objective without bias to personal gains, they would be working for themselves and not for their firms. Or perhaps, it's my thinking that is corrupted. Ha!

But this article is quite true.
Heed the advice that the primary trend is DOWN.
Dun be too hopeful.

Straits Times: Overview



As seen, 2900 seems to be the support and if broken we're heading even lower in the next few days. I'm personally looking at 2600-2700 for any significant rally.

Straits Times: Recent Behaviour


Hopefully, a bottom is formed. Else it's another few weeks of agony for most and hope for others, the opposite reactions towards a common event.

Dow Jones: Broader view



As I've previously posted, it might be a whipsaw at the last rally. It's too fast for market sentiments to change from bearish to bullish all from a 0.5% rate cute! It's now back to where it is supposed to be, where it left off.

Dow Jones: Narrower View


At 12,780, it's also roughly where the resistance would be, from fibbo retracement. This price stands at around 38.2% of fibbo. Support would thus be, at 11,970. Any lower, we''re heading to a new low. Judging from current circumstances, it's possible. But hopefully, it don't happen.

Perhaps a rebound tonight. Not very positive about it, a shaven bottom.

Waiting for STI's close since it's next opening would be next week. Anything can happen. =)

I've been reading Economist pretty regularly as I've subscribed to it. It's pretty much an interesting magazine, except that it seems very wordy but, its much better than TheNewPaper anyway, imo, of course there is a price difference, but it's worth a read.

Eddie Lampert, is compared to the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett. His life has definitely not been smooth and is an almost identical investor to WB himself, except that he runs the business he buys.

This guy, together with WB, and Benjamin Graham, has sort of given me another aspect on how to handle my next few investments. True, TA is a very powerful tool to analyse stocks and enter/exit prices but then again, future earnings and cashflow/liquidity is what keeps a company attractive, at its core.



I'm currently reading, "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, which is really quite hard to understand with my current knowledge, but luckily there's commentary after each chapter. When I'm done, perhaps, I'll do a summarized review on it.

I think it'd be interesting if you could google on his Eddie Lampert and watch how he progress from his current bad patch. Afterall, he took home $1b twice a year for 2 occasions. =) I'm still finding my ground...... Any advice?

If you're those anti Technical Analysis, (I'm a mixture of both actually) look at this interesting SingTel chart.

It's recent behaviour just caught my eye. Very Interesting.

Notice how it just goes boucing on the 200MA?

TA is speculative? You decide. =)

Ah Beng! Hoe Say Boh!

Seriously, this counter has a pretty tough "life". Once of the only few who manged to stay above its 200MA for such a long time before breaching it only for one day. What does this tells you about this counter? =)

The week's downtrend has led it to the price of $0.555 which is, a strong support, imo. It has been the support since Jan 2007 till date and has yet, seriously breached it. Perhaps, being one of the big brother in the industry is the reason for it's resilience.

I'm actually looking at this counter waiting to get in, perhaps on Monday near it's support price. I've actually done a check on it's dividend payout, which much to my disappointment, is so little! But I'm looking at it long term, I think.

I trust that this industry in Singapore should not die so soon and there's still room to grow their earnings with the new MRT system coming up and blablabla. But then again, if it's an open secret, would the price react to the news then, if you get what I mean.

RSI and MACD is on the up, which is not a bad thing but surprisingly, the price is still on the down. Hmm... think about this. Anyway, I'm just posting my view, the rest is your decision. Let me hear your opinions.

Dow Jones, Outperformed! Rated by JingXiong. Note the past tense used.

Seriously, I did not expect DJ to break that Resistance turned support line so easily when on the previous day, it tested but the day ended red. That day that I"m talking about is the day when Feds released their rate cut. Check out the graph that day online, if you cannot remember. Anyway, I'm shocked at how fast the sentiments changed.

To top it all off, it broke a 25d MA, not very significant, but relatively important. RSI looks good. MACD looks good too! Is this really a reversal? I'm hesistant. I have my doubts. I expecting it to be back red soon, really. Perhaps because we've been in the red for too long and I'm used to it. ha!

Techically, it's all good. No? You decide. Let me know your views.