Sunday, February 17, 2008
After 2 postings on the above company, I've decided to search for it's latest AR results and do a brief analysis on it. Nothing complicated, just some basic calculations and common sense, I'd say.
- In Operation since 1986.
- T/O has been pretty consistent over the last 3 years with an average growth of 21.3%
- Div Payout has been consistent
- Current Ratio can be improved but has been kept fairly constant at 1.7.
- The Net Profit reduction could be due to the increased Capital Expenditure on Non Current Assets.
- Question on my mind is the reduced EPS a results of the increase in the Pref Div Payout.
If so, then the reduction is not so bad afterall.
At least the shareholders are willing to take lesser for the investors to take back more. No?
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One thing to note is that the above calculations and analysis are just for sharing purposes only.
The information from which I obtain the data is not from the full Annual Report itself but the simplified version from sgx.com and aztech.com
Not forgetting the diversification plans which the management has for the company and the contract which it'd just won, which from the figures would increase their profit substantially.
I should be adding this to my position this week, probably.
Opinions/ Advice anyone?
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Allco's judgment day delayed again
Danny John
February 18, 2008
Allco Finance has delayed its day of reckoning again, announcing this morning that its first half results have been delayed indefinitely.
The aircraft leasing, shipping, property and funds management empire ia bout to reveal to investors, analysts and the media the full extent of the crisis - both financial and reputational - that has swirled around the group since its shares went into free fall from mid-December.
The latest delay to Allco's long-awaited half yearly results follows the sudden cancellation of their announcement on Friday. The announcement will give company founder and execcutive chairman David Coe his first public opportunity to explain how Allco intends to get out of its current predicament.
Analysts have previously indicated that Allco would probably turn in net profits of around $120 million for the half year to the end of December - a period that covered the fall-out of the global credit crisis which has made life so difficult for those companies like AFG that depend on debt to finance their businesses.
But most of the emphasis - and the questions - will focus on Allco's immediate future, its plans to reduce its mountain of debt and what it will have to sell if it is to save itself.
Macquarie Group, private equity firm Texas Pacific and Babcock & Brown are believed to have explored informal bids for parts or all of Allco. Allco's advisers, Caliburn Partnership, have opened a data room to allow potential purchasers to get a clearer financial picture of its assets.
The company is also having to work closely with corporate solvency and restructuring specialist Ferrier Hodgson which was appointed last week by the Commonwealth Bank in a move aimed at ensuring that Allco was able to meet its financing commitments.
The Commonwealth's chief executive, Ralph Norris, alluded to the move in a TV interview yesterday without naming either Allco or Centro, which is another big debtor to the bank now being closely monitored.
"We have provided for those particular corporates who are not in as strong position as they were. But I have to say that none of them have defaulted at this point and they are servicing their debt as per their arrangements."
A spokesman for Allco was unable to comment on the company's financial situation yesterday.
At the same time Allco is also said to be looking to get out of its most recent deal, agreed in December, that involved the $1.67 billion acquisition of 29 power stations in the US with its joint venture partner, the Australian super fund investor Industry Funds Management.
Allco's shares are expected to come out of suspension as early as today after being placed in a halt last Monday at $3.05.
The stock dropped sharply in January after it was disclosed that Allco's senior executives, including Mr Coe, had been the subject of margin calls which required the forced sale of shares in the main company.
HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) today closed @ HK$112.60 (-2.20 ↓1.92%).
陆羽仁: 莫吃眼前虧
2008/2/18
網友Bigcow問話匯豐（０００５）好抵，但會否再低？我估好多人係匯豐粉絲，早前講到匯豐都有好多人有反應，所以不妨再講吓。
過去一年，有個中環茶友經常提醒我，小心匯豐，佢在美國次按的業務係大炸彈，又脫唔到手，匯豐的英國董事會又唔夠大刀闊斧找管理層開刀，所以鬼佬大行對匯豐幾唔睇好，外資大戶要插大市時實搵匯豐來插，隨傳隨到，永無失拖。
所以我講匯豐時亦比較小心，對網友問起匯豐時都唔會答得太具體，由於網友的問題多數無講清楚自己係長線或短線，我最怕長線和短線的觀點混淆咗，亂答累死你。不過如今都可以講得具體啲，我認為短線買匯豐唔係幾買得過，你可能即刻有反應，話無理由匯豐無可能反彈，甚至大反彈？我並唔係話匯豐唔可能反彈，如今美國金融股如碧斯所言，有一個１０％、２０％的大反彈，匯豐一定會彈，但我的問題是如果美股彈，港股又彈，匯豐會唔會係最突出的股份呢？
香港恒指可以分成三大部份，匯豐佔其一，紅色巨股佔其一，地產股佔其一，三分天下，若美股彈，港股彈，匯豐彈，你估恒指彈唔彈，你估紅色巨股彈唔彈，你估地產股彈唔彈？你要我估，我估若匯豐反彈，恒指的反彈幅度唔會少過匯豐，即係買盈富基金（２８００）都會差唔多，甚至好啲。點解會好啲？如果紅色股或地產股反彈得仲勁，超越匯豐，咁盈富的升幅就會大過匯豐。從一個短炒的角度，匯豐是弱股，唔係唔會彈，雖然跌得多，但反彈未必會多過人。
若講短線，我其實睇好紅色巨股多啲，因為大陸A股已跌了一段時間，主要是年頭宏調和法人股解凍所致，雖然宏調措施都未出齊，但消息會慢慢消化，而解凍股唔似會在低位狂沽，所以大陸股市都係近底。唔好忘記仲有個港股直通車，呢個措施未死，要出亦可以好快出，而且多數係喺港股便宜時推出，所以紅色巨股好有條件短線跑贏匯豐，若唔識揀股，買匯豐不如買恒生H股基金（２８２８），兩隻去跑，我睇好２８２８多啲。
匯豐的問題是美國和歐洲業務，中線而言（講一兩年），頭頂有一把懸劍，就係美國次按危機的幅射未完，壞消息未充份反映，如我今天在頭條日報的專欄提到，美股可能有大反彈，但今年下半年怕佢彈完又嚟料，信用卡的壞帳潮又到，匯豐在美國的次按賣唔到，歐洲業務又怕被美國拖累，所以中線匯豐不能睇好，較好的情況是在大波幅內行走，股價在１００元至１３０元間走動，未有條件向上大突破此波幅太多，若較壞的情況出現，不能排除下半年會下穿波幅試底，買佢小心吃眼前虧。
若問好長線匯豐買唔買得過，我會覺得匯豐的基本管理資素良好，若在低位吸，揸五年以上，當係債券咁收息，或者有得諗，又舉一個例，以長線計，若唔買匯豐買恒生H股指數基金，就係買中國經濟仲有十幾年快速增長，紅色巨股的管理唔好，但高速增長可以填補管理缺陷，所以紅色巨股是高風險、高回報的股份。但如果匯豐賣掉美國次按業務，以其優良管理，則是低風險、中回報的股份，如何選擇要自己決定。
好多股民愛匯豐，是受佢過去長期高增長所影響，期望這種高增長可以再來，但我要話俾大家知，匯豐下跌前的兩三年的高增長期，主要是收購美國業務而來，但那個收購為她帶來大災難，她在那幾年中國生意（甚至是印度和俄羅斯這些新興地區）還是較便宜時，沒有大手落注，錯過了這個機會，想追都好難追，所以未來匯豐即使醫番好，也不是過去那隻又穩陣又高增長的匯豐了。
Aztec sounds like a promising company. Smaller lesser know companies are where the big money is made.
Aztec seems very interesting.
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