All in a day's work

I would not say that I'm very experienced in the field of trading, afterall I'm just 23. Many of you people who actually visit my blog are much much more experienced and I'm thankful that you still retun to this site.

Personally, I think there is no better time than now, when I actually witness how the market reacts to economics, politics and news. If I'd start to trade earlier during the bull run, I may not learn as much as now. Therefore, this period of volatility allowed me to learn much much more than what I'd initally expected.

I've made lots of stupid trades, losing some $ but I'm bearing those bad trades in mind so that I do not repeat those mistakes, but sadly, I'm not disciplined enough. I still make those mistakes. My resolution for this year is to be a much better trader than the last, so people, share your views with me.

Despite not earning as much as I'd have wanted but I'm happy that I still have my inital capital (school fees to the market) intact. That, to me is sort of a relief. I do hope that all of you would be willing to post more and approach me via mail/msn if your views contradict mine. I'd appreciate that, really.

To me, it's not actually the money that makes me want to learn more, it's getting my analysis right. Egoistic? Perhaps! Ha!!

A young and pretty lady posted this on a popular forum:

Title: What should I do to marry a rich guy?

I’m going to be honest of what I’m going to say here. I’m 25 this year. I’m very pretty, have style and good taste. I wish to marry a guy with $500k annual salary or above. You might say that I’m greedy, but an annual salary of $1M is considered only as middle class in New York. My requirement is not high. Is there anyone in this forum who has an income of $500k annual salary? Are you all married? I wanted to ask: what should I do to marry rich persons like you? Among those I’ve dated, the richest is $250k annual income, and it seems that this is my upper limit. If someone is going to move into high cost residential area on the west of New York City Garden (?), $250k annual income is not enough.

I’m here humbly to ask a few questions:

1) Where do most rich bachelors hang out? (Please list down the names and addresses of bars, restaurant, gym)

2) Which age group should I target?

3) Why most wives of the riches is only average-looking? I’ve met a few girls who doesn’t have looks and are not interesting, but they are able to marry rich guys

4) How do you decide who can be your wife, and who can only be your girlfriend? (my target now is to get married)

Ms. Pretty, Here’s a reply from a Wall Street Financial guy:

Dear Ms. Pretty,I have read your post with great interest. Guess there are lots of girls out there who have similar questions like yours. Please allow me to analyze your situation as a professional investor. My annual income is more than $500k, which meets your requirement, so I hope everyone believes that I’m not wasting time here.

From the standpoint of a business person, it is a bad decision to marry you. The answer is very simple, so let m e explain. Put the details aside, what you’re trying to do is an exchange of “beauty” and “money”: Person A provides beauty, and Person B pays for it, fair and square. However, there’s a deadly problem here, your beauty will fade, but my money will not be gone without any good reason. The fact is, my income might increase from year to year, but you can’t be prettier year after year. Hence from the viewpoint of economics, I am an appreciation asset, and you are depreciation asset. It’s not just normal depreciation, but exponential depreciation.

If that is your only asset, your value will be much worried 10 years laterBy the terms we use in Wall Street, every trading has a position, dating with you is also a “trading position”. I f the trade value dropped we will sell it and it is not a good idea to keep it for long term – same goes with the marriage that you wanted. It might be cruel to say this, but in order to make a wiser decision any assets with great depreciation value will be sold or “leased”.

Anyone with over $500k annual income is not a fool; we would only date you, but will not marry you. I would advice that you forget looking for any clues to marry a rich guy. And by the way, you could make yourself to become a rich person with $500k annual income. This has better chance than finding a rich fool. Hope this reply helps.

If you are interested in “leasing” services, do contact mesigned, J.P. Morgan

DJ closed unconvincingly on Friday.
STI closed green on Friday, unconvincingly too I'd say.

There had been a lot of buy ups on Friday.
Monday, Gap down perhaps.

Short on Monday or Intra day on Monday or Stay away. Be careful

Fed's meeting coming end of January, will definitely affect the momentum of the market, another cut? Ha!

A quiet Monday perhaps. Let's see

For the last 2 days, I've been like an intra day trader.

On Thursday, the morning rush was good.
On Friday, the afternoon rush was good.

It's mentally distracting when I'm working, especially. Nevertheless, ended up green. Phew~

If you really wan to buy, desperate to buy, cannot don't buy, do only buy at support levels. Don't anyhow buy. If there's any more drop from the new positions, CUT LOSS! Don't hold and hope. Don't be like me! =D

Is this really a rebound.

Technically, STI was able to stay above it's flag range today. Out of it's downtrend pattern. But something which is not very convincing is that, with it volume, why is STI is not showing the supposedly long white candlestick. It close quite hesistantly but do also note HSI's performance near closing, when down -500+ points.

3151 is still the point to cover up, a gap down. This number was tested thrice. Still a point to beat.

A friend did inform me of a Tweezer Bottom on DJ, a powerful signal technically, but I still have my reservations. As usual, in trading, there's nothin absolute, just don't go against the trend and be careful and flexible.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/fed_interest_rates.html

Isn't this just desperate?

Imagine this, what if DJ continues to show negative signals?
Are they going to their rates even further as mentioned?

Well, at a time like this, seriously, all stocks are not in good shape. Chartwise, it definitely bad. The selling will continue so long as the problems are not solved. SembCorp is not the only one showing such negative signs.

A few good things to point out on this counter would be that, it's range tested Fibbo 38.2% at around $4.29 and rebounded. However, the question would be, could this price be a strong support and can the price bounce along it?

Based on current situation, it's difficult. All eyes would be on the Feds. The interest cuts may not be a good thing in the long term, bringing in the concern of future inflation rates.

Another point is that, the price range is still within the flag, within the range as seen from the 2 lines drawn diagonally downwards. It's still in the range, not sure if it's a good thing also though. But at least, it did not fall out of the flag in today's trade, despite testing it.

At the current moment, it'd be better to just watch everything unfold and prepare to respond when there is a bottom, reversal signal.

Just be patient.

6% drop. I believe this will be the topic people who vested would be talking about. Seriously, we should be expecting it to be so. And as previously posted, testing 2,900 points.

2,900 is supposedly fibbo 38.2%, a support line and if broken, woohoo, technically, it should go down more to around 2,665, which is fibbo 23.6%.

I've been reading on Elliot Wave and I really think that we are in the wave 4 period and in theory Wave 4 should not exceed 2680, which is again as calculated by Fibbo at 23.6%. Are we really heading in the direction of a full wave 4 or are we going even below that? Hmm... We shall see.

Using 2 techniques, it concludes almost similarly. Hmm..... You decide.

Hands up! Those who expected this sudden selldown. Ha! I'm affected but well, I'm stupid =)

Anyway, Janet, as requested, an analysis on Kepland, is it too late?

I've drawn 2 blue lines diagonally showing the support lines of the current price for this counter. Both as pointed by the red arrows are breached. Not a good sign obviously.

$5.97 is also the price which is the support for the trendline, since 2005. This is again, coincidentally on fibbo, 38.2%.


Next, at $5.40 there is a gap up, this should be the next support if breached, it's all down to $5.08. Coincidentally, this price is also where fibo is at 23.6%, yes 23.6% it's bad. very bad. Free falling since it's peak.

That's what I think of it. Actually, most counters look like that now, breaching all their major support, KepLand is not alone. =D

First and most important question, "WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING TO COME FROM?"

I think it's no hidden secret that US is in debt, is it not? Or was I led to think that way?

I've done a simple search online and I have my doubts to the stimulus package brought forward.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0314/p01s02-uspo.html

Quote "Today, the national debt totals $8.3 trillion, a level that could force Congress this week to raise the debt ceiling for the fourth time in George W. Bush's presidency." Unquote.

Today in this article, I believe, is the date stated at the top left hand corner of the page. 14th March 2006, 2 Years ago.

http://zfacts.com/p/461.html

There are figures but are they reliable? Nevertheless, it could just be a reference to the state of the debt. Just do a simple comparison in the debt that was incurred in the above article.

Year 2000 - about $5.7 Trillion
Year 2006 - about $8.3 Trillion
Year 2008 - About $9 Trillion.

Too far fetch an estimate? You decide.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080119/economy_stimulus.html

Quote, "Bush and the Democratic-controlled Congress are emphasizing their desire to work together as they rush negotiations on a short-term measure to prevent the economy from falling into recession."

Short term... hmmmmmm that sets me thinking but it's, at the end of the day, an effort on his part.

These are just my thoughts on the issue or can someone enlighten me on where does the $ come from when they are in debt?

It's the same story for STI as with my previous 2 posts.

So stop hoping for a rebound and accept the fact that we are going down, maybe you'll feel better. Start saving up for the bigger picture!

Now from these 3 charts, it's pretty obvious that all markets are inter dependent or rather, influence each other. For people who buy when STI rebound, do look at the bigger picture again. We have only this amount of people in our market compared to HSI and DJ.

Negatively put, what chance do we actually have to fight the market sentiments/ trend. Do refer to my previous posts on fighting the market =).

That's all for indexes review this weekend.

Here, they are, the very easily excited bunch will a lot of $$.

From their performance, they can easily up and down 500 - 1000 points in a day. Just take last Friday for example, before lunch, down 900 closing, green. Crap. Perhaps it's because they are about 30,000 points but, imagine DJ up and down by 250-500 points the same way. Ha!

Notice in my chart, 26,000 was like a nice support to hold.

1. It was the support for the last 2 corrections.
2. It's the resistance-turned-support since 2006.

But, the important thing is that it broke. Gone! Now we're in the region of no where for HSI. Making efforts to create another support price, perhaps?

So stop hoping for a rebound and accept the fact that we are going down, maybe you'll feel better. Start saving up for the bigger picture!

Everyone should know by now, everything is dropping. Ok This is crap. But the point here, I am thinking of driving is how much lower can we get.

I've drawn 3 red lines, projection lines, to illustrate the support of the current DJ. It just broke a support, not very important one though, but significant.

Obviously 12,700 has been the support for the last 2 corrections in the year 2007 and since we've breached that, get ready for a sprial ride, down. Anymore lower, it would be testing the 12,000 point soon. An important point, psychologically and technically, as seen from the bottom most line.

Another point to note is that the selling trend is still very strong, from the very protruding red sticks at the bottom and we are facing the support of the 3rd line, created since 2005 and also the support for Feb 07 at, coincidentally again, the region of 12,000.

So stop hoping for a rebound and accept the fact that we are going down, maybe you'll feel better. Start saving up for the bigger picture!

Hi people. If you cannot see the chart clearly, ask from me. I think my colour selections are quite bad but, that 's not very important.

As you people might have already know, I'm working and am not free to chart as much as before but while scanning through the top movers Wilmar caught my eye.

1. Selling momentum had been very strong recently epitomise by today's selldown. Just look at that unbelivable volume sold.

2. 3 very interesting signs on Wilmar.

a. Look at the support line that I'd drawn since Aug till now, today's closing went below this support line @ $4.57.

b. Look at the resistance turned support line that I'd drawn that stretches from Jan '07. It broke that line at $4.59.

3. I'm not strong at this but if I were to, in my way, highlight a fibbo retracement, 61.8% seems to fall also at $4.59.

Are these just coincidental.

You decide. If I had my CFD account and it opens lower, I might have shorted this counter, provided I have the funds, of course! =D

Firstly thanks PC, for the link in my chatbox. Seriously, I did not know it existed until you told me. At least now for me, and people who might have been vested in this counter, we know that this link now exist.

www.yzjship.com

I've visited the website and I'm quite happy with the load of information. Just take a look yourself, don't worry there's an english version to it.

I'll add this link on the right for easy referencing next time.

Once again, thanks a lot PC! At least now I am able to do a FA on them, although I think they will release their prospectus coming Mar 08, I think!

Today, I've realised that actually I lack something. a CFD account.

Shorting, as discussed with traderstudent, is morally wrong cause u've caused the other party to lose. Ha! But then again, how can I not have a CFD account for shorts in the near future. So thus, I've decided to open a CFD account.

The poll ended and the response is really bad. But then again, as seen from the results, the renting of books avenue is crap. Idea dropped.

One thought went through mt mind this morning at work. How will foreign investor look at us, when we cannot see our own index? Isn't that a joke? I seriously think that sounds stupid, for all the trading fee that we've paid. Crap.

I'll start my charts again this friday, when I'm supposedly free. =)

Till then....

Anyone holding on to 1? Or know where to get? Drop me a comment in my chatbox, either that, email me. I'm looking for 1. Dun seem to find it.

Thanks!

Do not impose your beliefs on the market.

Example: If you firmly believe that X is going to rally, wait till the trend is heading north before buying. If in a bear market, and you bought X in the expectations that a bull market will materialize, then you are trying to impose your beliefs on the market, fighting the trend. Although ultimately, you may be right, but it's not very wise.

Be a trend follower, not a predictor. That applies to the situation now.

Extracted and edited from "Japanese Candlesticks Charting Techniques by Steve Nison"

** I just completed this book, after a long long time. Finally.

This is quite boring. STI cannot be seen, till date. Worst to come, everything's dropping. Bomb shells.

Alright, who got whacked badly by this sudden selldown? There'd been signs but in 1 day everything dropped and it has yet recovered. Talked with a trader, Henry, and thought that both ways, shorting and buying is not really a good option. Staying away might be ideal in this case. And wait until there's a significant sign of revival.

When there's fear, there's opportunity. When there's greed, run =)
Still, just wait and see. That's my view.

In the meantime, I would really be posting up charts cause it's quite obvious where the counters are only heading south and nothing really interesting as yet. If there is, let me know =D

W/o the charts, I'll be doing my own readings on Elliot waves and anyone of you who knows Elliot Wave, let me know. Not forgetting, I'll be progressing into Value investing and FA. Striking a balance on most of these issues. So I'll blog on my reads and anything intersting along this line.

Not forgetting, I've decided to do a FA and evaluation on YZJ, a counter which I think there's potential in time. Hopefully, I can apply Elliot Wave when I post. Target time of post on my analysis, 31st Jan. Stay tuned =)

I'm a sad soul who lunches alone as my new colleagues seem to like to lunch in. MPH is my hideout, away from the buzz and crowds.

I have this idea in mind to create an avenue whereby like minded people, like us, can rent books from one another and thus creating a "community" or friends.

I've created a poll on this issue. Do give me your honest thoughts by dropping me a mail at jingxiong@hotmail.com.

Thanks!

CAPITALAND
CAPITAMALL TRUST
CITY DEVELOPMENTS
COSCO CORP SINGAPORE
DBS GROUP HOLDINGS
FRASER AND NEAVE
GENTING INTERNATIONAL
HONG KONG LAND
JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE
JARDINE STRATEGIC
KEPPEL CORP
KEPPEL LAND
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES
NOBLE GROUP
OLAM INTERNATIONAL
OVERSEAS CHINESE BANKING
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES
SEMBCORP MARINE
SIA ENGINEERING
SINGAPORE AIRLINES
SINGAPORE EXCHANGE
SINGAPORE PRESS HOLDINGS
SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING
SINGAPORE TELECOM
STARHUB
THAI BEVERAGE
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK
WILMAR INTERNATIONAL
YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS
YANLORD LAND GROUP

Finally Someone added and chatted with me on msn.

Seriously I'm not desperate to have friends cause I do not really have time for them but I don't mind knowing people who have interest in trading =)

So don't be shy. LP and Kgai =) ha!

There has been much hype over this counter the last closing. Moving it's way to top Movers and closed really well. It's impressive but is that all a smoke screen?

I see this movement as a pretty tricky movement as I do not know about any news on this counter yet. Double bottome formation can only be completed when it closes the gap at 1.24 which has been tested unsuccessfully.

I would see 1.03-1.04 as a price of support of the counter when when it drops to this price when the major markets are not showing makor weakness, I MAY ENTER. Note the MAY. 0.95 is thus the last price to break. Anything below may test the tweezers, which is not positive.

Interestingly to note also is how much similar volume can differ. Earlier December., there was also a day when there was significant buying but prices did not move so much. Is this over speculated on Friday? I'm not sure, only to be known in the coming few days.

However, one positive note is that the latest closing broke the resistance line created since Oct successfully and convincingly. However, imo, TA is not absolute and it depends on all too many factors, that's why is unorthodox and not thought in school.

Hopefully, those who had bought this counter has already exited their positions. Monday may not be good, following the closing on Uncle DJ last closing.

For those of you who frequent this website to check for updates, I'm sorry as work is really draining me work and in addition to that, I fell sick. So basically once home = sleep.

For the early part of saturday, I'll be free so will take this opportunity to upload some of the charts which might interest me. But in the meantime, since I was away there were about 200+ visits how come so little people commented or added me on msn.

Come on... I'm friendly =)

Hello people.

How was the last day of 2007 for you?

Anyway hopefully when you do some reflection of what happened last year, it'd bring a smile to your face, giving you something to look forward to this 2008.

In these 2 days, I'll post my thoughts on STI and DJ again, concluding 2007. Do let me know some of your thoughts if possible. Afterwhich, I may not be online as frequently as I'll be starting my new job coming 2nd Jan in P&G, temping though but hopefully I'll be able to get a good job in there. Maybe one post in 2 days or such. Of course, you can still ask me to look at certain counters and provide my noobish opinions and I EXPECT urs too =)

Not forgetting for those who do not mind making new friends, you people can add me on msn, my address on the right.

Till the next post.