All in a day's work

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Anonymous said...

First 13 firms to report results are in the black

28 January 2008

Singapore - THE early birds of the reporting season have delivered a good showing. All 13 companies that have reported their results this month were in the black, and eight of them posted higher earnings. Only one company, Evergro Properties - a member of the Keppel group - reported lower earnings, due to lower divestment gains. The 13 companies' total earnings for the full year ended Dec 31, 2007, totalled $842.8 million. Of these 13 companies, most are trusts - mainly real estate investment trusts (Reits). CapitaMall Trust racked up the largest profit number, in absolute terms, among the trusts. The Reit's net income available for distribution for 2007 came to $211.2 million, up 25 per cent from the $169.4 million posted in 2006.

And the trust's manager is forecasting a 9.5 per cent growth in distributable income for this year to $231.3 million. CapitaMall Trust's portfolio valuation has increased by $200 million in eight months to $5.8 billion and it intends to achieve a local target asset size of $8 billion by 2010. The $8 billion target size is based on a secured pipeline of malls in parent CapitaLand's portfolio - Ion Orchard (50 per cent stake), Clarke Quay and the mall in the one-north precinct. At Ascott Residence Trust, distributable income shot up 83 per cent to $45.1 million for 2007, compared to $24.6 million for the 10 months from March 1, 2006 - the date the trust completed its first acquisitions. The service
apartment operator's takings were boosted by new acquisitions and strong operating performance.

Other trusts, like First Reit and First Ship Lease (FSL) Trust, have no comparative full-year figures. First Reit, Singapore's first healthcare real estate investment trust, was listed in December 2006. For the whole of 2007, it chalked up distributable income of $18.3 million. FSL Trust - whose portfolio comprises shipping vessels, container ships, tankers and carriers - reported distributable income of US$34.8 million for the period March 19 to end-December last year. The trust was listed in March. Of the non-trust companies that reported their earnings this month, Qian Hu Corp and BH Global Marine led the earnings field in percentage terms.

Qian Hu, the ornamental fish breeder, reported net profit growth of 89 per cent to $4.9 million, boosted by a jump in
operating profit from its ornamental fish segment, and for its accessories. At BH Global - a global supply chain management company specialising in supplying equipment to the oil and gas industry - net income rose 56 per cent to $17.5 million, due to strong demand for its products and services. MobileOne (M1) suffered a tough fourth quarter but managed to stay in the black for the full year, with 2007 net profit increasing 4 per cent to $171.8 million. The company said that it would continue to work at reducing costs this year. A slew of big cap counters are still due to report their results this month. Expected this week are Keppel Land, Keppel Corp, Fortune Reit and Singapore
Petroleum Co.

January 28, 2008 at 10:54 AM  

Anonymous said...

SMRT Q3 net profit dips 5.3%

28 January 2008

SMRT Corp's net profit fell 5.3 per cent year-on-year to $38.3 million for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2007, even as increased ridership, a higher average taxi hired-out fleet and rental/advertising growth pushed group revenue up. The earnings fall was because the previous corresponding quarter included exceptional items, a key one being the inclusion of a final contribution from expired cards. Q3 revenue rose 7.3 per cent to $202.1 million with revenue growth from all sectors. SMRT operates Singapore's biggest rail network, as well as relatively small fleets of buses and taxis. But its other operating income dropped 69.5 per cent or about $8.5 million to $3.73 million, in the absence of the exceptional items it saw in the previous corresponding quarter.

Excluding those exceptional items, SMRT Corp said the Q3 net profit figure would have been a $5.4 million or 16.4 per cent improvement to $38.3 million. 'SMRT has delivered another set of good operating results in Q3 FY08 despite the higher operating cost environment,' said president and CEO Saw Phaik Hwa. 'We will continue to pursue opportunities to grow our revenue and at the same time manage costs in all aspects of our businesses.' Operating profit from the group's MRT operations in Q3 rose 4.8 per cent to $33 million because of ridership growth. Staff costs were higher. Average daily ridership rose 7.8 per cent to 1.3 million from the previous corresponding quarter.

Meanwhile, Q3 operating profit from buses slumped to $15,000 from $4 million in the previous corresponding quarter because of increased diesel and staff costs, although this was partially offset by higher daily ridership. The taxi
business was back in the black in Q3 with operating profit of $500,000, compared with a loss of $600,000 in the corresponding quarter last year, thanks to a higher average hired-out rate of almost 94 per cent - up from 76.5 per cent. As usual, rental revenue and advertising did well. Third-quarter operating profit from the rental of retail space jumped 23.4 per cent to $8 million with the redevelopment of more commercial space at various MRT stations.
Operating profit from advertising on buses, trains and stations also improved 6.9 per cent to $3.6 million.

Earnings per share in Q3 fell from 2.7 cents to 2.5 cents. For the nine months ended Dec 31, 2007, net profit attributable to equity holders rose 16.6 per cent to $115.8 million, while revenue rose 6.7 per cent to $593.6 million. As for the Land Transport Review announcements yesterday and a week ago, SMRT says it is upbeat about the new developments to both bus and rail. It said there are more opportunities to operate and maintain a more extensive rail network, and a good opportunity to grow the bus business beyond current territories. SMRT currently
runs only 800 of the 3,700 public buses in Singapore and is restricted to the northern part of the island.

January 28, 2008 at 11:04 AM  

Anonymous said...

Wing Tai's second-quarter net profit slips 19% to $43.6m

26 January 2008

WING Tai Holdings yesterday reported a 19 per cent year-on-year drop in net profit to $43.6 million for its second quarter ended Dec 31, 2007, while revenue plunged 59 per cent.

Q2 sales for the property group came to $110.7 million, while earnings per share were 5.81 cents - down from 7.47 cents.

The Q2 earnings brought first-half net profit attributable to shareholders to $105.35 million, a rise of 25 per cent, even though revenue fell 52 per cent to $210.9 million. The results included a $27.5 million gain from the disposal of available-for-sale financial assets.

The company attributed the lower half-year sales to smaller contribution from the development properties division.

Revenue on development properties for the current period was mainly from the units sold in The Riverine by The Park, The Meritz and The Lakeside.

The profits recognised from these three projects contributed to its operating profit of $70.1 million - down 37 per cent from $110.5 million a year ago.

However, the company was helped by a more than three-fold jump in the share of profit of associated and joint venture companies, which lifted half-year net income.

The share of profit from associates and joint ventures rose from $23.2 million in the previous corresponding period to $75.9 million, due to the higher contributions from VisionCrest and Casa Merah projects in Singapore.

Wing Tai said that in view of volatility in the current market, it will continue to monitor the property market closely.

New residential projects for sale in the current year will be released at an opportune time.

Yesterday, Credit Suisse issued an 'underperform' on the stock, with a price target of $2.48.

The shares ended trading yesterday at $2.30 - up 6 cents from previously.

January 28, 2008 at 11:11 AM  

Anonymous said...

Meghmani Q3 net slips 17% to 89m rupees

Group revenue up 19% but higher raw material costs and pricing pressure hurt earnings

26 January 2008

MEGHMANI Organics, an India-based global manufacturer of pigments and agrochemicals, has posted a net profit fall of 16.7 per cent to 89 million rupees (S$3.2 million) for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2007.

The group's earnings per share for the nine months to end-December came to 1.11 rupees, down from 1.51 rupees a year earlier, while earnings per SDS (Singapore Depositary Share) worked out to 0.56 of a rupee compared to 0.76 rupee a year earlier. Group revenue rose 19 per cent to 1.36 billion rupees for the three months ended December, from 1.15 billion rupees a year earlier.

The group's pigments and agrochemicals divisions contributed 559.1 million rupees and 524.7 million rupees to operating revenue for the quarter, representing revenue contributions of 41 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively. The remaining 21 per cent of revenue came from trading activities.

Ashish Soparkar, managing director of Meghmani, said: 'We are satisfied with the group's performance in our latest set of results, given the challenges of price hikes in raw materials and pricing pressure.

'We are pleased that the group was able to effectively mitigate these factors to turn in a robust overall gross profit margin of 19.3 per cent for the nine months ended December 2007. This is, indeed, still well within the healthy range.'

Looking ahead, the company intends to capitalise on the improving economic conditions in Europe and increased growth in the Asia-Pacific for its pigments business, while continuing to focus on the branded formulations sale of its agrochemicals on the domestic front.

To better meet customer needs , Meghmani will continue to enhance its product portfolio by increasing the production of Pigment Green 7, and possibly increasing production capacity at its Pigment Blue plant. Meghmani's SDS price ended half a cent higher at 31 cents yesterday.

January 28, 2008 at 11:14 AM  

Anonymous said...

CRCT placement snapped up

Institutional investors take up 136m new units in CapitaRetail China Trust in 30 mins

26 January 2008

A PRIVATE placement by CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) was snapped up by institutional investors within half-an-hour after its launch yesterday.

Approximately 136 million new units in CRCT were fully subscribed by investors under the private placement at an issue price of $1.36 per unit, the trust's manager, CapitaRetail China Trust Management Ltd (CRCTML) said.

The total gross proceeds from the private placement amount to $185 million. The issue price was set at a discount of approximately 10 per cent to CRCT's volume-weighted average price of existing units on the Singapore Exchange on Thursday.

CapitaLand Retail Ltd, on behalf of CapitaLand Ltd and its subsidiaries, and CapitaMall Trust subscribed for approximately $74 million worth of new units so as to maintain their proportionate unit- holdings in CRCT at their pre-placement levels. The joint lead managers, bookrunners and underwriters for the private placement were Citigroup Global Markets Singapore, DBS Bank and JPMorgan.

Lim Beng Chee, CEO of CRCTML, said: 'Despite the soft and volatile market conditions, CRCT was able to raise capital and garner strong participation from investors, who had quickly subscribed for the new units within 30 minutes after the launch of the private placement. This demonstrates the resilient qualities of CRCT and the highly accretive benefits of this quality acquisition.

'We remain positive in achieving our target asset size of $3 billion by the end of 2009.'

Following the equity fund-raising for the acquisition of Xizhimen Mall and the issue price of $1.36 per new unit, unitholders can expect a distribution per unit (DPU) of 6.67 cents for FY2008, the trust manager said. This is an accretion of 4.1 per cent to the forecast DPU of 6.41 cents for CRCT's existing portfolio.

CRCT is also making a public ATM offering, in which approximately 2.2 million new units will be made available through the ATMs of DBS (including POSB) on a first-come, first-served basis at the issue price of $1.36 per new unit. The maximum number of new units per application under the ATM offering is 250,000.

The ATM offering will open at 10.30am today and close two hours later, subject to early closure if all the units under the ATM offering are fully taken up before that.

The expected date of listing of the new units is Feb 5.

January 28, 2008 at 11:20 AM  

Anonymous said...

China Takes New Anti - Inflation Steps

January 25, 2008

BEIJING (AP) -- China unveiled new steps Friday to cool rapidly rising food prices, saying it will boost farm subsidies and curb industrial use of corn after data showed inflation at near decade-high levels despite a slew of earlier measures.

Beijing also will try to boost grain production by paying more for wheat and rice, the country's planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, announced. It promised to take steps to increase supplies of grain, meat and cooking oil.

December's inflation rate was 6.5 percent compared with the year-earlier period, down only slightly from November's 6.9 percent, the highest rate in 11 years, the government said Thursday. December's food price rise was not announced, but November's rate was 18.2 percent.

Food prices have been climbing at double-digit annual rates since mid-2007, due mostly to shortages of pork and grain. Communist leaders are worried about possible political tensions because the rises hit China's poor majority hard.

The government will ''increase the minimum purchase price for grain and wheat and make progress in raising the standard of subsidies paid to grain farmers in order to motivate them to produce more,'' the NDRC said on its Web site. It gave no financial details.

Regulators also will ''seriously control the development of industrial use of corn,'' the statement said, without giving details.

Corn can be used to produce ethanol, a vehicle fuel, but Chinese leaders worry that industrial demand might raise the price of such food crops. The government said earlier it would curb their use for fuel in order to keep consumer prices down.

The inflation spike is especially sensitive ahead of the Lunar New Year in February, when households stock up on groceries for banquets and to feed visitors during the most important family holiday of the year.

Beijing has taken a series of steps in recent months, raising aid to pig farmers, curbing grain exports and barring price increases by producers without official permission. This week, the price freeze was extended to fertilizer to cushion the blow on farmers.

Food prices in 2007 rose by 12.3 percent for the full year, while the cost of pork, China's staple meat, rose 48.3 percent, according to the government.

Inflation is expected to stay high through 2008, with analysts forecasting a full-year figure of up to 5 percent.

January 28, 2008 at 12:01 PM  

Anonymous said...

國際視野

王冠一: 魔 鬼 「 楂 莊 」 那 有 天 堂

2008年01月28日（星期一）

上 周 環 球 股 市 可 以 用 鬼 哭 神 號 來 形 容 。 周 一 美 國 假 期 ， 亞 洲 區 突 開 始 發 難 ， 日 、 港 股 牽 頭 急 挫 ， 若 要 找 個 理 由 ， 再 對 上 一 個 周 五 ， 國 際 評 級 機 構 惠 譽 下 調 債 券 保 險 商 Ambac ， 由 AAA 級 降 至 AA 級 別 ， 乃 是 最 佳 藉 口 。

然 則 又 是 否 有 觸 發 周 二 環 球 股 市 「 跳 樓 」 之 能 耐 ？ 瞧 瞧 香 港 、 印 度 及 新 加 坡 等 重 災 區 之 跌 幅 ， 走 貨 如 戲 院 失 火 之 景 象 ， 不 難 給 人 如 末 日 將 至 之 感 覺 。

落 藥 救 亡 誰 敢 孭 鑊

亞 太 區 愁 雲 慘 霧 ， 歐 洲 亦 跌 個 四 腳 朝 天 ， 美 國 期 指 上 周 一 亦 勁 挫 超 過 6% ， 那 有 不 將 聯 儲 局 主 席 伯 南 克 從 夢 中 嚇 醒 ？

原 來 Ben 哥 不 但 無 放 假 ， 且 一 直 在 辦 公 室 孭 實 沿 途 走 勢 ， 見 世 界 股 市 如 雪 崩 般 滑 落 ， 急 召 兩 大 「 護 法 」 ─ ─ 副 主 席 科 恩 （ Donald Kohn ） 和 紐 約 聯 邦 儲 備 銀 行 行 長 蓋 特 納 （ Tim Geithner ） 共 商 對 策 ， 決 定 有 需 要 落 重 藥 救 亡 後 ， 以 視 像 會 議 尋 求 其 他 委 員 通 過 ， 並 必 須 要 在 周 二 開 市 前 宣 佈 減 息 0.75 厘 ， 不 然 大 事 不 妙 。 如 此 緊 急 ， 誰 敢 孭 鑊 ？ 故 除 聖 路 易 斯 聯 邦 儲 備 銀 行 行 長 普 爾 （ William Poole ） 外 ， 全 部 舉 手 「 投 降 」 ！

美 股 企 穩 ， 減 息 後 周 二 晚 仍 以 見 「 紅 」 收 市 ， 周 三 港 股 發 癲 勁 升 2332 點 ， 其 他 亞 太 股 市 也 大 幅 反 彈 ， 只 有 歐 洲 斯 人 獨 憔 悴 。 當 日 美 國 再 傳 來 「 好 」 消 息 ， 紐 約 保 監 要 員 Eric Dinallo 與 各 大 金 融 機 構 商 討 ， 如 何 拯 救 債 券 保 險 商 。

先 入 地 獄 後 上 天 堂

投 資 者 明 知 與 會 者 全 部 係 泥 菩 薩 過 海 ─ ─ 自 身 難 保 ， 但 也 得 避 避 鋒 頭 ， 沽 壓 一 減 ， 美 股 再 彈 。 可 是 歐 股 繼 續 沉 淪 ， 原 來 是 法 興 期 指 交 易 員 作 弊 ， 導 致 該 銀 行 損 失 超 過 500 億 港 元 ， 不 過 上 周 四 已 明 顯 有 春 江 鴨 buy on fact 矣 ！

上 周 五 股 市 繼 續 反 彈 ， 部 份 全 周 計 無 啥 差 別 ， 有 分 析 員 指 上 周 走 勢 是 先 入 地 獄 、 後 上 天 堂 ， 是 嗎 ？

January 28, 2008 at 12:46 PM  

Anonymous said...

港股早市: 港股受压挫1185点，恒指中午收报23937点

2008年01月28日 12:41　

　　港股今早低开780点后,市况进一步向下,跌穿24000点,低见23876.23点,跌幅达1246.14点,恒生指数中午收报23936.96点,跌1185.41点或4.72%,半日成交总额594.64亿元。

　　蓝筹股全线下滑,汇控(0005)及中移动(0941)沽压大,地产及金融分类指数挫5.28%及5.2%,红筹及国企指数亦跌5.21%及5.37%。

　　即月期指收报23900点,跌1175点,低水37点,成交合约73553张。

January 28, 2008 at 12:54 PM  

Anonymous said...

热点透视: 美联储30日或再降息50个基点

2008-1-28 12:13

　　美联储再次降息已无悬念，主要的疑问在降多少基点。继上周紧急降息75个基点之后，美联储将于当地时间29日召开例会再次议息。市场预计，美联储本次降息力度将达到50个基点，将联邦基准利率降至3%。如果本周初公布的一系列关键经济数据不乐观，不排除再次降息75个基点。

　　至少50基点

　　上周，美联储紧急实施了自1980年代以来幅度最大的一次降息，也是2001年以来首次在例会时间以外变更联邦基准利率。但市场对此并不满足，消息宣布后美国股市的继续波动显示了市场的期待。

　　再次降息的时间窗口恰恰就在本周，本月29-30日，美联储将召开例会。"我们预测美联储将在30日再次宣布降息50个基点，至3.00%。"美国银行资深经济学家克莱茨默的看法正代表了目前市场的主流预测。

　　事实上，美联储上周就曾暗示，如有必要，将进一步下调利率。"经济增长面临的显著下行风险仍然存在。联邦公开市场委员会将继续评估金融及其他市场状况对经济发展前景产生的影响，并将及时采取措施应对风险。"

　　市场人士指出，目前金融市场仍处于高度恐慌之中，由于美国政府1500亿美元的降税措施到二季度末之前对经济增长的刺激效应不会体现出来，因此美联储仍有意愿在近期以降息对冲经济衰退的风险。

　　75个基点仍有可能

　　尽管降息50个基点是目前市场的主流预测，但部分市场人士也坦言，如果本周公布的一系列经济指标超预期的糟糕，导致股市波动放大，不排除再次降息75个基点的可能性。

　　美国当地时间28日晚，美国总统布什将发表关于国情咨文的演讲，布什将在演讲中发表对目前美国经济局势更为系统的观点和态度。市场希望，继抛出1500亿美元的减税措施之后，布什将提供更多的经济刺激一揽子措施以及态度上的支持。

　　本周美国还将出台2007年四季度的GDP数据，按照市场目前的预测，GDP增速将从三季度的4.9%大幅下滑至1.2%。同时，就业数据、房地产销售数据以及一批道琼斯指数中大公司年报也将在本周陆续出台。上周降息之后，中美利差已呈现出数年以来的首次倒挂，中国利率超出了美国64个基点之多，如果美国本周继续降息50个基点，两国利差将达到100多点
A股聚集

全球股市暴跌砸出A股机会

　　持续半年的美国次贷危机因花旗、美林的巨亏，引发对美国经济衰退的恐惧，美国股市在颤栗中持续暴跌。正如最近中国南方遭遇多年不遇的暴风雪，中国股市也遭受美国次贷危机带来的风雪侵袭，从1月15日到1月22日，短短六个交易日时间，上证指数暴跌1000点，跌幅近20%，刷新中国股市跌幅纪录。

　　经历了2006年和2007年两年波澜壮阔的大牛市后，蓝筹股的高估值是困扰市场向上拓展空间的或明或暗的担忧。A股市场受席卷全球的美国次贷影响已难独善其身，创出新高A-H的溢价同时成为市场暴跌的外生力量，中国平安（爱股,行情,资讯）1600亿的天量再融资则成了压死骆驼的最后一根稻草，在市场的“跌跌不休”中，不少信心备受打击的投资者出于对美国经济的担忧，对牛市的基本面产生了空前的怀疑。

　　业内人士认为，本轮调整仍是牛市架构内的调整，本轮调整仍是择股“买跌”的机会。

　　从美国股市发展历史看，1987年出现股灾之后，接下来是灿烂的持续二十年的牛市，这得益于美国经济基本面的支撑，中国经过30年的改革开放，经济持续稳健地发展，国务院总理温家宝，前不久在会见外宾时表示，中国经济还会有10到20年的稳健发展。如果美国经济速度放缓并导致欧洲和日本出现增长停滞，那么对于中国的外需来说，中国是大国经济体中少数同时拥有巨额财政盈余和外汇储备的国家，这将是提升内需，进而抵消外需放缓对总需求造成的影响的重要力量。可以预见，在经济发展向好的中国，A股也会有一个持续向好的未来。

　　从资金流动性来观察，美国经济衰退且美元进一步贬值必然会促使人民币加速升值，而人民币升值正是A股牛市的重要根基之一。市场普遍预期，美联储将联邦基准利率调低75个基点后，将在月底的公开市场委员会召开之后，再将联邦基准利率调低50个基点，并且有望在3月18日的会议上降息至少25个基点。美元大幅降息后已经与人民币形成息差倒挂，人民币愈加坚挺的态势下，必然会有更多的外资进入中国寻求投资机会。

　　从业绩和估值角度来看，本轮暴跌行情是对市场高估值风险的进一步释放，而外部因素和市场环境仅仅起到了加速估值回归的作用。目前上海市场静态市盈率水平下降到53倍左右，沪深300市盈率水平下降到30倍左右，如果考虑未来业绩增长情况，当前市场整体估值水平已经回到合理区间并具备一定的吸引力，H股和B股估值已明显进入投资价值区域，部分A+H的上市公司2008年的市盈率已经跌到10倍或者10倍以下，而在中国经济高速增长的情况下，上市公司盈利通常可达到25%，这些股票至少被低估了50%。

市场出现恐慌性暴跌但考虑到国际市场在近期都出台了稳定市场的举措，A股市场也同时存在印花税调整、股票型基金重新开闸等可以期待的利好措施。业内人士认为，市场应在4500到5000点附近修复技术指标，以时间换空间走上攀升之路，本轮急跌行情具有“脚踏实地”的功效，本次全球性股市暴跌对A股市场来说只是一个阶段性事件，不构成趋势性影响。投资者可乘大盘暴跌之际逢低关注一些低估值板块和去年四季度基金增持的潜力板块。由于2007年年报已开始公布，重点关注年报中业绩与分配超预期的股票。（证券日报）
创投股密码：深入挖掘创投公司项目价值

　　创业板推出在即，创业投资企业到底迎来多大机会？不妨看一个例子：2001年江苏高科参股的创投公司对无锡尚德电力进行种子期投资，尚德电力随后于2005年12月在纽交所挂牌上市。

　　江苏高科参股的创投公司从投资到退出，4年多时间里的投资回报率达到17倍。而参股创投企业的上市公司，毫无疑问也将分享巨额的投资收益。综艺股份(600770.SH)就持有江苏高科过半的股权——关注类似这类股票的价值是理财周报本期主题新闻的重点。

　　全面梳理厘清

　　所谓创投概念，是指主板市场中涉足风险投资的上市公司，并有望通过相关项目在国内外创业板上市并获得收益的上市公司。狭义的创投概念股是指参股创投公司的上市公司，创业板成立后，这些公司将获得直接的经济利益。

　　我们操作本期主题新闻分“三步走”：首先全面梳理持有或设立有创投公司的上市公司，找出其中价值较大的公司；其次逐家揭示创投公司的现状、投资项目和成长性；最后通过采访创投公司高管、自身分析师给出创投概念股的投资建议。在实际操作中，我们通过查阅上市公司公告，发现许多“创投股”虚有其表，其持有的创投股权早已转让出去。我们还通过公司网站，逐家寻到国内主流创投企业的资料。

　　去芜存箐，沙里淘金。我们认为，这项费时费力的统计很值得，不仅真正弄清楚相关上市公司与创投公司的关系，还初步掌握了创投公司的投资规模和能力。而受访的国内最大创投企业——深圳创新投资集团的高管一番“创业板推出后，创投项目成功率起码提高50%”的表态，也让投资者浮想联翩。

　　新年伊始，创投板块悄然走强。刚刚结束的一周，即便遭遇“全球股灾”之大的危机，创投概念股仍如寒冬中的一股暖流。

　　像创投股复旦复华(600624.SH)一周都在上涨，周涨幅超过50%。

　　当然，这不是创投股首次发力，去年9月份，创投股力合股份(000532.SZ)等就曾大举上涨。

　　本轮创投股的优异表现，当然有创业板即将推出的消息刺激因素，与上市公司业绩和估值关系不大。激情过后的可持续发展能力，当是我们关注的重点。

　　三个角度评价

　　如何评价创投股的未来成长空间？基础工作完成后，具体到此次统计的54只创投概念股身上来。我们认为至少要从以下三个角度来看。

　　一是持有创投公司股权的多少，二是参股创投公司的实力，三是上市公司自身主营业务的盈利能力。

　　大比例持有创投公司的要关注，持有股权比例较高的有大众公用(600635.SH)、紫光股份(000938.SZ)、钱江水利(600283.SH)等；创投公司实力较强的有深圳创投、浙江天堂硅谷、浙江省创投、江苏高科、江苏弘瑞等；上市公司主营业务较强的包括北京城建(600266.SH)、东软股份(600718.SH)等。

　　随着内地资本市场改革的深化和企业金融脱媒的进行，我们预料作为国家优化产业结构和实现产业升级的创投行业，将持续地获得政策支持。

　　随着创业板的呼之欲出，创投概念股的投资机会应进一步关注。而我们要提醒的是，随时动态评估具体股票的估值和市场风险，以免接下最后一棒。（理财周报）
主力动向曝光

爆发性上涨机会将减少

　　2007年国内证券市场再一次经历了激动人心的上涨，上证指数年涨幅接近1倍，而沪深300指数涨幅达到1.5倍左右，A股市场上演了一幕两年翻两番的奇迹。站在指数5200点左右的位置和并不便宜的估值水平，每个投资者都在思考2008年的市场走势。

　　股改、股权激励和开放式基金的发展将是拉动我国证券市场发展的"三驾马车"。随着开放式基金的发展，居民储蓄存款与证券市场投资通道被打通，财富效应的影响将在相当长一段时间内吸引投资者的热情，我国直接融资比例偏低的状况也因此有望得到逐步改变。基于上述因素，中国市场长期向好的基础仍在。

　　在经历了连续两年的大幅上涨之后，市场整体估值水平已变得并不便宜，如果说A股市场前两年是由于股改和国民经济快速发展等因素造成的报复性上涨的话，今后市场爆发性上涨的机会将越来越小，震荡幅度也可能随之加剧。

　　来自证券业协会的调查显示，从对2007年投资者风险意识调查情况看，有66％的个人基金投资者认为基金投资有风险和有亏损的可能。这主要是由于去年市场的几次大幅震荡造成基金资产的缩水。如果换一种投资方式--基金定投，产生的时间效应可以平均投资成本。这在去年的市场上已经得到了充分的证明。鹏华基金已与工、建、农等推出多只基金的定投业务。

在2008年的基金投资策略上，行业方面看好金融、地产、医药、造纸、钢铁等投资机会，受益于节能减排和医改等政策的部分上市公司可望获得较好的投资回报
年底基金手握现金2561亿 持股市值2.5万亿元

　　动态

　　华夏希望债券基金获准发行

　　1月24日，华夏基金公布华夏希望债券型基金已获准募集。这是继汇添富增强收益债券型基金后，2008年第二只获准发行的公募基金产品。该基金预计节后将正式发行，股票投资最高比例为20%。

　　友邦华泰3000万申购旗下债券基金

　　1月24日，友邦华泰基金公司公布，拟于2008年1月28日通过华泰证券股份有限公司，申购友邦华泰金字塔稳本增利债券型基金B类3000万元。

　　麦哲伦基金重新开放申购

　　美国最大的互惠基金之一富达投资公司（Fidelity Investments）日前宣布，10年前停止接受新投资人的麦哲伦基金1月15日重新开放申购，以便吸收新资金。目前麦哲伦基金的规模为448亿美元。

　　过去12个月，在基金经理人哈利兰格（Harry Lange）的管理下，麦哲伦基金的回报率为11％，高于同期82％的同类基金表现，同期的标普500指数仅有0.3％涨幅。

　　（据《21世纪经济报道》）

　　数字

　　基金持有股票市值

　　占流通A股的25.78％

　　2007年12月31日，全部基金（包括QDII基金）资产净值32755.90亿元，股票投资市值24661.46亿元，债券投资市值3431.82亿元，权证投资市值84.24亿元。4只QDII基金资产净值1081.79亿元，股票投资市值689.89亿元。剔除QDII基金持有的海外股票市值，国内基金持有23971.57亿元的A股市值。2007年12月31日，沪深A股流通市值是9.3万亿元，基金持有的股票市值占市场比例为25.78％。（据《中国证券报》）

　　2007年四季度基金手握现金2561亿

　　据wind资讯统计，1月21日已经披露的40家基金公司旗下227只基金公布了四季报。报告显示，截至2007年末，股票型基金合计资产1.49万亿，相比三季度末减少了100亿，但手握现金却达到了2561亿元，相比上一期增加了250亿元。

　　2007年四季度基金总体亏损721亿

　　去年四季度58家基金公司旗下341只基金总体亏损721亿元，且超过六成基金出现亏损。这是2005年6月底至今基金首次出现季度整体亏损。其中，开放式股票基金亏损额最大，达到468亿元；封闭式、混合型基金也都整体亏损；债券基金整体盈利21亿元，货币型基金盈利超过5亿元。

　　2007年四季度基金份额增长8.63％

　　四季度开放式基金份额稳中有升，期末总份额为20127.68亿份，总体小幅增加8.63%，其中除了混合型和保本型基金遭到小幅赎回，其他类型基金均呈现净申购，货币型基金的净申购比例最高，达到80.90%，债券型基金的净申购比例也达到29.79%。

　　上投摩根QDII

　　四季度股票仓位91.02％

　　截至1月22日，首批发行的4只QDII基金均已公布四季报。其中，截至2007年底股票仓位最高的是上投摩根亚太优势，股票仓位91.02％，基金仓位4.79％，在香港市场的投资占股票投资的44.77％；嘉实海外股票仓位80.07%，八成股票投资集中在香港市场；南方全球精选股票仓位为31.04%，基金仓位为57.45%；华夏全球精选股票仓位为51.77%，基金仓位为2.72%。

　　3只QDII基金跌破0.8元

　　1月23日，4只QDII基金公布了最新净值，南方全球精选净值为0.805元，其余3只QDII净值均跌破0.8元。其中，华夏全球精选净值为0.759元、嘉实海外净值为0.71元、上投摩根亚太优势净值为0.718元。

　　22日基金指数

　　创"530"以来最大单日跌幅

　　1月22日，沪深基金指数亦大幅跳水，上证基金指数收报4702.68点，跌幅6.77%；深证基金指数收于4597.63点，跌幅7.38%，两市基金指数创下"530"以来最大单日跌幅。两市封基22日成交金额为59.41亿元，成交量为2484.3万手，较前日放大38.9%。

　　22日3只ETF跌幅超过8％

　　1月22日，受大盘剧烈调整的影响，深100ETF、红利ETF和中小板ETF全天跌幅都超过了8%，分别达到了8.53%、8.28%和8.18%。

　　当日，LOF基金"满盘皆绿"，全天跌幅度最大的鹏华动力下跌了8.83%。此外，长盛同智、广发小盘、万家公用、巨田资源、博时主题的全天下跌幅度也超过了8%，跌幅最小的南方积配全天则下跌了5.56%。

　　声音

　　本世纪最牛的市场在埃及

　　上投摩根海外投资经理王邦祺认为，本世纪最牛的市场是埃及。开罗30指数自本世纪最低点445.53开始，一路攀升到上周10883.03点，涨幅高达25倍，一跃夺取新世纪最牛市场的桂冠。

　　埃及市场中最重要的两只股票是权重24.74%的Orascom建设(OCIC EC)和权重23.11%的Orascom电信，一个从9.26埃及镑涨到620埃及镑，另一个从0.65埃及镑涨到94.46埃及镑，涨幅分别为67倍和145倍。这种涨势堪称世界级的纪录，未来短期内都不容易被打破。

　　值得一提的是Orascom电信，中东最大的移动运营商之一，移动通信业务遍及阿尔及利亚、巴基斯坦、埃及、突尼斯、伊拉克、孟加拉国以及津巴布韦，通讯覆盖面包括整个北非以及中东，服务人口高达四亿人，在当地的地位相当于内地的中国移动。

　　2008年关注"节能减排"

　　银河基金股票投资总监李昇认为，"节能减排"已成为国家长期发展战略之一，预计在较长时期内都将对相关行业产生较大影响，从中受益的行业面临较大的投资机会。而考虑到人力成本优势，具有国际竞争力的先进设备制造业也同样长期看好。

　　从中期看，李昇表示，本币升值和通胀预期仍会存在，在这两大过程中持续受益的行业或公司将获得明显的竞争优势。受益于此的资源类行业应获得更多关注，当然，此类行业不局限于有色金属等板块，黄金、贵金属、房产物业等都是值得关注的。

　　一季度把握七大投资主题

　　对于一季度具体投资策略的选择，鹏华普天收益基金经理林宇坤阐述道，超额收益来自估值较低的行业和公司，自下而上精选个股的效果可能优于行业配置，交易性收益可能会比较明显。

　　具体而言，重点把握一季度可能会有超额收益机会的七大投资主题：通胀上升受益者，主导产品持续涨价给股票价格提供了富有想象力的估值弹性；相对估值洼地；节能减排与自主创新；行业整合与资产重组；股权激励；人民币升值与消费升级；小市值股票。在行业配置上，以行业景气和估值水平结合为导向，看好医药、化工、钢铁、建材、公路、造纸、金融、机械、食品饮料、品牌服装、旅游、传媒等，房地产股票可逢低战略性增持。

　　人事

　　银华基金副总经理辞职

　　1月23日，银华基金公司公告称，副总经理陈湘永先生因个人原因向公司董事会提出辞去副总经理职务，经公司董事会审议批准，同意其提出的辞职申请。从即日起，陈湘永先生不再担任公司副总经理职务。

　　华夏复兴增聘基金经理

　　1月23日，华夏基金公司公布，增聘孙建冬为华夏复兴基金的基金经理。

　　交易提醒

　　分红　中信稳定双利10分0.26元

　　1月31日，中信稳定双利债券基金将进行2008年第一次分红：向基金份额持有人按每10份基金份额派发红利0.26元。

　　华安基金两只封基分红

　　1月31日，华安基金公司旗下两只封闭式基金将进行2007年度第三次分红。其中，基金安顺和基金安信各自向全体持有人按每10份基金份额派发现金红利3元。

　　暂停申购

　　3只基金暂停申购

　　近日，有三只基金暂停申购。1月25日，长盛同德主题增长暂停申购业务(包括定期定额投资业务)，赎回等其他业务照常进行。1月25日起，南方多利增强暂停申购及转换转入业务，赎回、转换转出业务正常办理。

　　另外，友邦华泰稳本增利的全面销售活动即将于1月31日结束，并自2月1日起暂停申购业务。在申购业务暂停期间，基金的赎回业务照常办理。

　　恢复申购　汇添富优势精选恢复申购

1月23日起，汇添富优势精选基金恢复办理大额申购和转入业务。
黑色星期一"基金在逆势抄底 净买入24.75亿

　　巴菲特曾说过"只有退潮时才知道谁穿没穿泳裤。"同样，2008年的第一次股市调整--"1·15"行情，也为投资者考察基金理财能力提供了一个难得的实证机会。与往常股市调整不同，这一次空头部队的锋芒，直指以标榜价值投资为己任的基金经理后院--大盘蓝筹股。

　　这难免让人们担心，曾经在2007年"5·30"中有上佳表现的公募基金们，能否逃过这一劫。幸运的是，来自上交所的基金专用席位数据显示，基金经理们再次显示出高超的投资技巧，继1月3日至14日总体减持40亿元后，成功在上证综指18日的5180点一线减持213亿元；在21日大盘下跌5.14%当天，基金逆势抄底净买入24.75亿元。

　　券基账户增持599只个股

　　数据显示，在上交所840只可统计的上市公司中，仅有241只个股有券基账户减持行为，而在多达599只的个股中，券基是呈现不同程度的增持。其中，以增仓数量占个股流通盘的绝对比为排序，兴发集团、双良股份、国投中鲁、扬农化工、亿阳信通、耀皮玻璃、新赛股份、中粮屯河、中创信测、航天晨光、海南椰岛、华胜天成、敦煌种业、云南城投、火箭股份、国电南自等中小流通市值个股，增仓数量占流通盘的比例从3%至11%不等。

　　反观减持榜，中国远洋、中国平安、广船国际、兴业银行、建设银行、国投电力、中国人寿、中国国航、中信证券、中铁二局、南方航空等大盘股被基金和券商机构大量减持，减持幅度也是从3%至11%不等。

　　有意思的是，被增持的个股多是基金和券商之前持仓比例较低的品种，如双良股份、耀皮玻璃、云南城投、洞庭水殖等1月15日前被上述机构持股的比例连1%都不到。而减持榜上，排名居前个股多是原机构重仓股，如广船国际、兴业银行、王府井、南方航空等，机构仓位都曾在65%以上，最高的达到77%。

　　保险席位大逃亡

　　T204715天净卖出32.79亿

　　就单个席位而言，以保险公司为首的其他席位是本轮调整的"逃兵"，其中仅代码为T20471的一个席位，就在1月15日至21日期间净卖出32.79亿元。

　　由于上交所数据延迟的原因，至记者截稿时无法看到基金更后面的操作，不过可以肯定的是，有相当部分基金在这轮下跌中采取更积极的策略。

　　一个典型的证据是，23日下午广发基金管理公司投资总监朱平，在自己的新书--《投资是一种生活方式》签售会上宣称："就操作特征而言，在21日、22日大跌中逃跑的肯定不是专业投资者！当然，在这两天买进的暂时还无法评价。"

January 28, 2008 at 1:01 PM  

Anonymous said...

曾淵滄：香港再無負資產？

法興的神奇小子憑一個人的力量，不但使法興虧損49億歐元，1月21日，法興大舉平歐洲股市指數期貨好倉的行動，更使到歐洲股市大跌。美國場外道瓊斯指數期貨也跟大跌，嚇壞了伯南克，1月22日，伯南克終於宣佈大幅減息0.75%，鬧出一場金融笑話。有人認為，伯南克是減錯息了，既然是減錯息，本周四的議息結果可能會不再減息，若真的不減息，對股市自然有壓力。法興的神奇小子玩死法興，動機何在？根據目前有限的資料顯示，法興虧49億歐元的同時，這名神奇小子自己並沒有得利，到底，他是在一開始就想整垮法興，使自己一舉成名？還是賭輸了想翻本，才不惜犯法製造虛假客戶的買賣來隱瞞虧損，再繼續賭下去？有趣的是：不少網民在神奇小子的Facebook上留言為他打氣，視他為偶像，為電腦天才、金融天才。是的，只有同時是金融天才及電腦天才才能幹出這宗49億歐元的大案。然而，法興事件也讓我們感到擔心，金融市場竟然如此高風險。十多年前，一名神奇小子可以獨力摧毀霸菱，現在，另一名神奇小子也獨力打殘法興。也許，我得開始思考，獨沽一味地只持有控（005）是不是正確？現在損失最大的，無辜受災的就是法興的小股東，每名小股東都得分擔這49億歐元虧損。

買港島樓有保障

現在的法興，已出現周轉不靈的問題，急需55億歐元來救命，看來法興已不可避免地會被另一家銀行併吞。儘管股市波動，上星期六公佈的中原城市指數依然上升1.29%，最新指數為69.36點，就快升上70點，一達到70點，就表示理論上再也沒有負資產人士了。香港買樓借7成按揭，樓價下跌30%以上就成了負資產。中原城市指數的最高點就是1997年7月1日的100點。當然，不同地區、樓價的升跌還是有分別的，新界西的分區指數只有49.74點，港島區則高達79.64點。港島買樓還是比較有保障。港島區樓價升得快，難怪南豐、信置（083）、嘉國（173）有膽量以天價在拍賣場買下香港仔的土地。上個星期六，出席一個投資演講會，中原地產主席施永青與瑞銀董事總經理陸東不約而同地說2008年最佳投資是買樓，陸東更進一步推薦長實（001），因為長實最多樓可供出售。

January 28, 2008 at 1:12 PM  

Anonymous said...

A Tale Of Three Cities

Three connected cites drive the global economy

By MICHAEL ELLIOTT
17 January 2008

They tend to be an optimistic lot, the bankers and business leaders, politicians and pundits, who every year make their way to the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Those who have power and influence often have much to be optimistic about, to be programmed to lift up their eyes to the hills — of which Davos has plenty — and see more prosperity coming their way.

This year's meeting, which starts on Jan. 23, might be a little different. Thoughts may be in the valley rather than the hills. A year ago, subprime had not entered the lexicon of the nightly news, and most Americans probably thought that "credit crunch" was a breakfast cereal. We all know better now. In the wake of the report that December's U.S. unemployment rate had jumped to 5%, the highest level in two years, the Bush Administration and Congress, Republicans and Democrats, started falling over themselves trying to find a politically acceptable stimulus package. With a recession in the American economy looking to be imminent, the tireless locomotive of the global economy seems finally to have run out of puff.

How serious are the consequences likely to be? Much more could go wrong: a collapse of the dollar, or of U.S. consumer confidence as house prices continue their fall. But on balance, the denizens of Davos would be well advised to keep up their sunny spirits. Taking the long view, the global economy is at a remarkable moment. Whatever the chance of a recession this year, the U.S. has experienced what the economist and former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs John B. Taylor of Stanford University calls a "long boom" since the Fed started to squeeze inflation out of the system in 1979. For nearly 30 years, Taylor points out, the few downturns the U.S. has suffered have, in historical terms, been both short and shallow. Even more extraordinary is the tale outside the U.S. According to the World Bank's recent Global Economic Prospects report, global growth in 2007 was 3.6%, down a little from 3.9% in 2006. But among developing economies, growth was a remarkable 7.4%, the fifth successive year of an expansion of more than 5%. This isn't just the predictable tale of the rise of China and India; on the back of strong commodity prices (and relative peace), African economies, too, are performing better than they have for a generation.

How did the world come to this happy position? You can list the usual reasons: two decades of decent macroeconomic policymaking, the triumph of markets and the collapse of command economies, the dissemination of transforming technologies and tools such as the Internet, and open trading systems. All of these are the attributes that combine to form that much discussed phenomenon: globalization. But in this special report, we look at one overlooked aspect of a generation's worth of global growth: the extent to which New York City, London, and Hong Kong, three cities linked by a shared economic culture, have come to be both examples and explanations of globalization. Connected by long-haul jets and fiber-optic cable, and spaced neatly around the globe, the three cities have (by accident — nobody planned this) created a financial network that has been able to lubricate the global economy, and, critically, ease the entry into the modern world of China, the giant child of our century. Understand this network of cities — Nylonkong, we call it — and you understand our time.

Go back nearly 30 years, and few would have thought that any of the three cities were about to remake the world for the better. In September of 1982, the Hong Kong stock exchange lost a quarter of its value after Margaret Thatcher, flush from her victory in the Falklands War, annoyed the rulers of communist China by foolishly seeming to suggest that Britain might be able to hold on to its colony — which prompted China to insist that it would do no such thing. At the same time, London and New York City were bywords of urban decay. In 1981, London had seen some of the most bitter riots in a century. The city was run by a hard-left political clique whose understanding of capitalism came straight from Marx. (Its leader was "Red" Ken Livingstone; some 25 years on, now mayor, he sings the praises of London's financial-services industry and is pals with New York's plutocratic leader, Michael Bloomberg.) New York almost went bankrupt in 1975; by the early 1980s, its streets were potholed, filthy and dangerous. The city routinely had nearly 2,000 homicides a year. Last year, the number was just 494, the lowest since consistent record-keeping began in 1963.

Challenge and Change

Yet even in the darkest times, the Nylonkong cities had the sort of hidden strengths that would be their salvation. All had a certain adaptability hardwired into their people. All were once centers of manufacturing, but all have been able to shift their economic focus to the service sector as factories moved from New York's lower east side, or London's Park Royal estate, or the thousands of tiny enterprises in Kowloon, to the American sunbelt or up the Pearl River delta from Hong Kong to Guangdong province. All are — or have been — great ports. Today, only Hong Kong of the three wears its seagoing character on its face, with tugs and barges chugging up and down the harbor a stone's throw from the skyscrapers of the banks and trading houses. London and New York, by contrast, politely hide their tattooed seafarers' muscle out of sight, downriver or on the Jersey shore. But the sense of being a blue-water place is vital to the cities' success. It has made them open to trade, with all the transformative capacity that trade has to shake up established orders and make the exotic familiar.

Their history as ports has made Nylonkong open to the world in other ways, too. New York, of course, has long been thought of as a city of immigrants — of the Irish and the Italians, the Dominicans in Washington Heights, and the scores of other ethnicities that make up Gotham's mosaic. But increasingly, so is London. In 2006, according to the London Labour Force Survey, 31% of the city's residents had been born outside Britain; that compared with 34% of New Yorkers who hailed from outside the U.S. that year. Hong Kong, which barely existed 150 years ago, has always been a haven for migrants fleeing trouble in China. Even in these prosperous times for the mainland, it still has pull. (Visitors from the West may find Hong Kong polluted; locals know it has cleaner air than almost all Chinese cities.) And increasingly, it is a magnet also for Chinese whose families have lived for generations in Canada, the U.S. and the U.K., as well as for other Asians. Between 1996 and 2006, for example, the number of South Asians in Hong Kong leapt by 43%.

The network of international trading and personal contacts that shape New York, London and Hong Kong facilitate their key industry. If the 19th century was the age of empire and the 20th one of war, so the 21st century, to date, is an age of finance. It is the banks and investment houses, the mutual funds and money managers, taking in their clients' cash and spreading it around the world, who have made today's global economy what it is. In Victorian times, London alone could fulfill this function. (The city funded enterprises all over the world, including much of the industrial development of the U.S. after the Civil War.) But the job has become too big for one place to handle. Now Nylonkong, that interconnected tripartite city, greases the wheels of trade and development. This is where the great banks — Citigroup and HSBC, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan — have their headquarters and their key regional offices; this is where ambitious companies go to seek financing or go public. Hong Kong — whose stock market's capitalization jumped almost fourfold in the 10 years from 1996 — has especially been able to benefit from the business of the hundreds of Chinese companies that want to raise money in global markets. Its bankers and brokers are continuing an old story. As they circle the globe — there are no less than 187 direct flights that leave London for New York every week and 28 weekly flights from Hong Kong to New York — staying in their favorite hotels and dining at their favorite private clubs, Nylonkong's financial-services executives are heirs to the Tuscan moneylenders who first stretched the sinews of capitalism 700 years ago.

Great cities, of course, are about more than money and finance. They are messy agglomerations of talent and culture. That is how they attract men and women in the financial sector who could choose to live anywhere. (Granted, nobody yet would argue that Hong Kong was London or New York's cultural equal, but it's a younger place.) That's a reason why Nylonkong needs to be careful not to kill the goose that laid its golden egg. These places are not cheap. According to the consultancy ECA International, Hong Kong's high-end apartments last year had the most expensive rents in the world, with New York third and London sixth.

The sheer expense of living in Nylonkong is but one of the challenges facing it — as the next three stories demonstrate. In the case of New York, high real estate prices may squeeze out of town the very people that make a city fun and livable. Globalization may have brought many benefits to those who live in London, New York and Hong Kong, but it has at the same time made the familiar strange, and turned the known world upside down. As they see London property prices bid to the skies by an influx of foreigners, native Cockneys may one day wonder what the new world has to offer them. Hong Kong, for its part, has gotten rich on the back of China. But it is a city of just 6.9 million people. China's largest metropolis, Shanghai, holds 18 million, and the mainland has scores of other rising cities, all ambitious for their moment on the world stage. Hong Kong must continually raise its game to maintain its relevance to the burgeoning Chinese economy.

Yet these are places that know how to meet a challenge. They've done it before. From being dismissed as long past their prime a quarter of a century ago, New York, London and Hong Kong have gone on to extraordinary heights. Tying themselves together, they have also knitted the world into a seamless fabric, financing and transporting the container vessels and the streams of data that have made today's global economy a phenomenon that has increased the life chances of countless millions. Welcome to Nylonkong, and the world it made.

January 28, 2008 at 1:26 PM  

Anonymous said...

Behind the Trader's Market Chaos

By VIVIENNE WALT
27 January 2008

PARIS - Just a week ago, when global markets from Bombay to Wall Street were tanking, few investors had ever heard the name Jérome Kerviel. Why would they? The 31-year-old from small-town Brittany in France was a low-level futures trader. One week later, Kerviel — the rogue trader who has lost Société Générale $7.1 billion) — now has 347,000 hits on Google, 14 groups dedicated to him on Facebook, and a Wikipedia biography — and the mounting political scandal over how he pulled off the biggest scam in banking history is only just beginning.

Still reeling from the scandal, bank executives spent the weekend scrambling to explain themselves to reporters and bracing themselves for what they are likely to face during the coming days: A bruising reckoning with top government officials. Bank of France governor Christian Noyer has been summoned to appear at a Wednesday crisis hearing in the Senate. And officials for President Nicolas Sarkozy were quoted in French and British newspapers saying that the French leader was enraged that Société Générale executives had waited at least three days before telling him that they'd uncovered the giant fraud. Sarkozy had good reason for unhappiness. When the scandal broke late on Wednesday night he was in New Delhi signing business deals with Indian officials, and trumpeting France as a dynamic country open to foreign investment. "The President was not very happy and he has let it be known at the Bank of France," one unnamed official told the British Daily Telegraph.

Days before, Société Générale executives had discovered Kerviel's massive illicit operation, after the trader had gambled positions worth about $73 billion. That's actually more than the bank's entire worth by around $25 billion. Instantly, this evoked comparisons in the media with another lone rogue, Nick Leeson, whose fictitious trades in Singapore lost $1.4 billion for Barings Bank in 1995, wiping out the bank's cash reserves. Leeson was arrested after an international manhunt, and spent more than three years in a Singapore jail. By contrast, Société Générale executives simply suspended Kerviel — perhaps to avoid panic selling. Executives then quietly unwound his disastrous transactions on the financial markets over the course of three days — so helping to send markets plummeting around the world.

Société Générale's head of corporate and investment banking Jean-Pierre Mustier admitted to reporters on Sunday that their forced sell-off had probably furthered last week's market slump. "I cannot deny that if we had not been selling the market would have fallen less," he said, though he said he thought its effect had been "minimal." With the markets in turmoil, the dark-haired, slim trader slipped out of sight, surrendering to financial police only on Saturday afternoon. Kerviel remains in custody in Paris but so far faces no criminal charges. The clock is running however: by early afternoon Monday, police must either free him or present Kerviel to a judge for the opening of a full judicial investigation into charges of fraud.

Outside, the hard questioning of bank executives has already begun. Hammered by reporters on a conference call on Sunday, Mustier said Kerviel had outwitted the bank's internal control department for nearly a year, partly by changing the financial instruments he traded — thus triggering attention from departments that knew nothing of his trading history. Kerviel learned the intricacies of the bank's controls during his time working in middle-office jobs, before moving to the trading floor in 2005. "He chose very specific operations which were not involving any cash movements," Mustier said. "He managed to place transactions which did not require immediate confirmations."

Kerviel had yet to answer publicly some of the scheme's most intriguing questions: Did he personally sock away millions from his fictitious trading? And if not, what made a quiet trader — whose Facebook page had just 11 friends — engage in a gargantuan con job and risk years in jail? Those answers might have to wait for Kerviel's trial. Or perhaps for another movie along the lines of the 1999 film Rogue Trader, which portrayed Leeson's extraordinary operation. And should you wish to try and make some money yourself, Leeson has been quoted by one British bookie at odds of 50-1 to play Kerviel.

January 28, 2008 at 1:35 PM  

Anonymous said...

The darker side of interest rate cuts

Markets like the Fed cuts and expect more. But lower interest rates could keep the dollar weak and ultimately threaten economic growth.

By Colin Barr
25 January 2008

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Interest rates are headed lower. But how low can they go?

The Federal Reserve surprised Wall Street earlier this week by cutting its fed funds short-term interest rate target by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 3.5 percent. The move had the effect of reducing rates on mortgages and home equity loans, and reassured investors that the Fed will do what it can to spur economic activity as long as the threat of recession looms.

But as much as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might like to keep the economy rolling by slashing interest rates, it's not clear how much room he'll have to do so. Two factors complicate the outlook for further interest-rate cuts: the hefty losses in the financial sector that are making banks less eager to lend money, and the prospect that lower rates will chase overseas investors away from the dollar, lowering the value of the greenback and boosting inflation. Adding to the case against deep rate cuts is the widespread perception that it was the Fed's rate-cutting zealousness after the last recession that led to the housing bubble that now threatens to derail the economy.

For now, all those worries aside, the market expects to see interest rates go lower. Given the scale of losses tied to the collapse of the housing bubble - the decline in real estate prices in coming years could cut household wealth by $4 trillion to $6 trillion, according to some estimates - economists say it's understandable that the Fed is doing what it can to support growth.

Rising inflation "is not a factor restraining the Fed at the moment," says James D. Hamilton, professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego. He says the Fed views the current situation as "maybe a little scarier than the typical downturn" because of problems in the credit markets that threaten to starve businesses of capital needed to fund expansion.

Because of hefty losses on mortgage-related debt, banks like Citi (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) have been raising billions of dollars just to boost their capital cushion for future losses. Setting aside bigger reserves means less money for lending to businesses and consumers.

That's why economists like David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, expect the rate cuts to keep on coming. Rosenberg wrote Wednesday that he expects the Fed to cut the fed funds target by half a percentage point, to 3 percent, at the Jan. 29-30 regular meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee policymaking arm. If the Fed does as Rosenberg expects, it will have cut short-term interest rates by 1.75 percentage points in just four months, all in the name of defending an economy that so far hasn't dipped clearly into recession.

But that's not all: Rosenberg believes that in view of warning signs ranging from weakening employment data to soft manufacturing numbers, the Fed should keep on cutting. He is calling for the fed funds rate to fall as low as 1 percent, in a bid to limit the economic damage from falling house prices and tightening lending standards. A fed funds rate of 1 percent would match the low reached in the aftermath of the mild 2001 recession. "This may sound aggressive, but Fed easing cycles in recessions almost always see the prior tightening cycle completely unwind," Rosenberg writes. "The serious nature of the current housing deflation and credit crunch environment makes the case for an aggressive easing in policy all the more compelling."

Compelling as it may be, a rate-cutting policy may not always have the desired salutary effect; after all, Japan effectively had interest rates of near-zero percent for years without emerging from its economic gloom. And it carries its own costs. Lower rates boost the economy by making big purchases such as houses more affordable. They can also help banks rebuild their balance sheets, by enabling them to borrow at lower rates and lend at higher ones. But lower rates also tend to reduce the value of the dollar, which has already fallen sharply in recent years amid a surge in U.S. consumption funded by overseas borrowing. Further declines in the dollar raise the risk of boosting inflation, which hurts consumers by reducing their purchasing power.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C., says the Fed's latest round of rate cuts risks adding to pressure on the dollar. He notes that unlike the Fed, the European Central Bank has been holding its interest rate target steady. So the latest Fed rate cut puts U.S. short-term interest rates, at 3.5 percent, below the 4 percent level of the euro zone. That differential tends to make the euro, which has already appreciated sharply against the dollar in recent years, even more attractive to investors shopping for places to put their money.

Indeed, currency analysts at Merrill Lynch wrote this week that they expect the dollar to fall further if the Fed continues to cut rates. The analysts write that they see dollar negatives in the "the erosion of the [dollar] as a safe haven, the lack of private sector buying, central bank flows and a widening interest rate differential." The worries about the strength of the dollar point to the Achilles heel of the U.S. economy: the fact that U.S. consumers have been financing their consumption by borrowing cheaply overseas.

At some point, observers warn, foreigners will stop wanting to send their money, which will drive up interest rates and hurt economic growth. "The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves," financier George Soros wrote this week in the Financial Times. "If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end." That's a worrisome thought indeed.

Meanwhile, Hamilton says that even with real estate prices poised to keep falling for some time, inflation worries can't be deferred forever. He says the Fed "may have to wrestle with that beast" down the road and warns that even if it's possible for the Fed to cut interest rates further, Bernanke and his colleagues should be careful about heading down the road toward 1 percent rates. "Anything below 2.5 percent would have me worried," he says. Cutting rates more sharply runs the risks of "sowing the seeds for the next problem" in the economy, Hamilton adds - very much as the Fed's low-rate policy during the recovery of 2003 and 2004 fed the housing bubble that is now deflating.

But he notes that keeping rates too low even as a recovery starts is an error that central bankers have been making for years, and will presumably continue to make, to everyone's chagrin. "This is a problem monetary policy has been making for half a century," he says.

January 28, 2008 at 4:55 PM  

Anonymous said...

Will Concerted Efforts To Revive U.S. Economy Bear Fruit?

28 January 2008

Recession fears continue to engulf the global markets despite several initiatives announced to ward off a severe downturn. It is quite surprising to note that most markets wilted under pressure defying the theory of decoupling. Although the reliance of nations such as China, Japan and Europe has come down significantly, the major economies are not yet fully decoupled from the U.S.

The Fed stepped in with aggression as the global markers succumbed to a major sell-off on Monday. In order to prevent a slide in the U.S. markets, which remained closed on Monday, the Fed announced a benevolent 75 basis point cut. The Fed justified its action by highlighting the weak economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. As hindsight, many economists feel that such a deep and unexpected cut was unwarranted, given their view that the sell-off was due to the French bank Society Generale unwinding some unauthorized trades in a day of thin trading.

Joining the Fed in the resuscitation efforts was the U.S. President, who broadly outlined a $150 million fiscal stimulus package last week. The package provides for modest tax rebates ranging from $300 to $1,200 for households earnings up to $150,000 a year. Meanwhile, small businesses stand to benefit from tax breaks, which would help them to write-off an additional 50% of certain investments and increase their ability to expense certain items. Additionally, the package also temporarily allows an increase in dollar limit of mortgage purchases by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. According to estimates by Wachovia, these measures will bolster GDP growth by about 0.75 percentage points.

Of the very few economic reports released last week, existing home sales showed a 2.2% decline to an annual rate of 4.89 million units in December. On a year-over-year basis, existing home sales fell 22%. Sales of single-family homes as well as condominiums and co-operatives were also lower. On a very negative note, the median price of existing home sales was down 6% to $208,400 from a year-ago. However, inventories of existing homes declined, as the supply of existing homes declined to a 9.6-month supply in December.

The unfolding week's economic calendar is heavily loaded, with many first-tier economic reports lined up for release. The FOMC meeting of Wednesday headlines the major economic events of the week. Among the reports, the markets are likely to stay focused on Friday's non-farm payroll report for January, advance fourth quarter GDP report, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal income and outlays report and the Institute of Supply Management's report on its January manufacturing survey.

Additionally, the new home sales report of the Commerce Department, the results of the consumer confidence surveys of the Conference Board and the University of Michigan, the Commerce Department's construction spending report and durable goods orders reports for December are expected to remain in the spotlight.

The Fed is unlikely to remain complacent despite its intervention last week. State Street Advisors expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at its January meeting. The firm is of the view that the central bank will act again at its March and April meeting, cumulatively reducing interest rates by another 50 basis points. Consequently, interest rates are expected to drop off to 2.5% by the mid-year and remain at that level for the remainder of the year.

Economists are more optimistic about a small bounce in the monthly non-farm payroll numbers, as initial claims have rebounded from the December highs. The manufacturing, finance and construction sectors are expected to show continued weakness, the impact of which may be partly offset by strength in business services, healthcare and retail.

Meanwhile, first quarter growth is expected to show a downbeat 1% growth, which may come as a no surprise given the build up in the recent negative readings. More weakness is forecast for residential investment, while consumer spending and business equipment spending may taper off. Export growth, which propped up growth in the third quarter, is expected to slowdown.

New homes sales are expected to continue to suffer from a lack of affordability in some key markets. However, Wachovia Securities expects homes sales to bottom out by the middle of the year due to a decline in house prices in the formerly booming markets, low interest rates and continued income growth.

The ISM's general business activity index for the manufacturing sector is expected to remain below the key ‘50' level in December after falling into the contraction territory in the previous month.

Monday

Data on New Home Sales, which measures the number of newly constructed homes with committed sale during the month, is scheduled for release at 10 AM ET on Monday. Economists forecast new home sales of 645,000 units for December.

In November, new home sales slid 9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000 from the October rate of 711,000. Annually, new home sales were down a whopping 34.4%. The median price of new houses was $239,100 in November, while inventories represented a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate.

Tuesday

The durable goods orders report, which gives details of new orders for big-ticket items, designed to last for more than 3 years, is due out at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday. Economists expect the report to reveal order growth of 2% for December.

Orders for manufactured durable goods eased 0.1% in November following a 0.5% decline in the previous month. Shipments of this category of goods were off 0.1%. However, unfilled orders and inventories increased 1% and 0.7%, respectively.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, based on a consumer attitude survey on present conditions and expectations of future conditions, is due out at 10 AM ET on Tuesday. Economists expect the index to be at 87 for the month of January.

The index rose to 88.6 in December from an upwardly revised reading of 87.8 in the previous month. BMO Capital Markets' Sherry Cooper believes that the temporary reprieve after months of poor showing came due to a little holiday cheer. Cooper said then that consumer outlook would become gloomier once the holiday season passes.

Wednesday

The ADP Employment report is scheduled for release at 8:15 AM ET on Wednesday. The report is a private survey that covers 14 million private employees at roughly 225,000 business establishments.

The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday. The economy is likely to have expanded by 1.2% in the fourth quarter.

In the third quarter, the U.S. economy expanded at a 4.9% rate, which was in-line with the expectations of economists. The GDP growth was 3.8% in the second quarter.

The acceleration in third quarter growth was due to positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, non-residential structures, federal government spending and private inventory investment. However, higher imports and a large decline in residential fixed investment exerted negative impact on growth.

On a year-over-year basis, GDP growth was 2.8% in the third quarter, faster than the 1.9% growth in the previous quarter. The core personal consumption expenditure index rose at an upwardly revised sequential pace of 2% compared to 1.8% growth in the previous quarter.

The weekly crude oil inventory report of the Energy Information Administration is due out at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday.

Crude oil stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels to 289.4 million barrels in the week ended January 18th. Gasoline inventories increased by 5 million barrels to 220.3 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels to 128.5 million barrels. Refineries capacity averaged 86.5% over the last four weeks, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous week.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on Wednesday to deliberate on its monetary policy and a decision is expected at 2:15 PM ET on the same day.

As the credit crisis assumes enormous proposition, the Fed was forced to intervene through an inter-meeting cut last week. The Fed announced the 75 basis point interest rate reduction in a bid to offer moral support to the flailing economy and mitigate downside risks to growth. The Fed also lowered the discount rate by the same magnitude.

Meanwhile at its regularly scheduled December meeting, the FOMC had cut its benchmark interest rates for a third straight time, reducing its target federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25%. The central bank also reduced discount rates by a less than expected 25 basis points, a move suggesting that the Fed doesn't see any serious threat to growth due to the recent liquidity crisis. The decision was adopted by a 9-1 margin.

Thursday

Personal Income and Outlays data is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday. The dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals is expected to have risen 0.4% in December, while the Personal Outlays on the purchases of durable as well as non-durable goods and services are likely to have increased by 0.1%.

Personal income increased 0.4 % in November, faster than the 0.2% increase in the previous month. The increase was lower than the 0.5% growth expected by economists. Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditure increased 1.1% in November following a 0.4% increase in October. Economists had expected an increase of 0.7%.

The personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a monthly pace of 0.6%, while the core personal income expenditure price indexes rose 0.2% from the previous month. The PCEI and the core PCEI increased 3.6% and 2.2%, respectively from the year-ago period.

The Employment Cost Index, which is a measure of total employee compensation costs, including wages and salaries as well as benefits, is due out at on 8:30 AM ET on Thursday. The index is expected to show 0.8% growth for the fourth quarter.

The index rose 0.8% in the third quarter compared to 0.9% growth in the second quarter. The increase was more or less in-line with the 0.9% growth expected by economists.

The weekly Jobless Claims data for the week ended January 26th is due out at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday.

Jobless claims fell to 301,000 in the week ended January 19th from the previous week's revised figure of 302,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to jump to 320,000 from the 301,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the decrease, jobless claims were at their lowest level since the week of September 22, when jobless claims came in at 300,000.The less volatile four-week moving average fell to 314,750 from the previous week's revised average of 328,750. Continuing claims in the week ended January 12 fell to 2.672 million from the preceding week's revised level of 2.747 million.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index, to be released at 10 AM ET on Thursday, is estimated at 53 for the month January.

In December, the Chicago business barometer index rose to 56.6 from 52.9 in November. While the production index fell 2 points to 55.4, the new orders index rose 3 points to 53. The inventories index continued to slide, dropping 3.1 points to 44. Confirming the soft patch in the employment market, the employment index slipped 5.5 points to 54.4.

Friday

The monthly jobs report, to be released at 8:30 AM ET on Friday is likely to reveal that the U.S. economy added 44,000 jobs in January. The report sheds light on the employment situation, as reflected by a set of labor market indicators such as non-farm payroll employment counts, the average workweek, average hourly earnings etc.

The U.S. economy added 18,000 jobs in December following the addition of 115,000 jobs in November. The bulk of the negativity is due to weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. On a more negative note, the jobless rate calculated based on the household survey climbed sharply to 5% from 4.7% in the previous month. Economists had expected an addition of 70,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.8% for the month.

The manufacturing sector and the construction sectors lost 49,000 and 31,000 jobs, respectively. Among service providing sectors, the retail trade sector lost 24,000 jobs. However, professional & business services and education & health services sectors added 43,000 and 44,000 jobs, respectively. The leisure & hospitality sector added 22,000 jobs compared to a 31,000 gain in the government sector.

The composite diffusion index based on Institute of Supply Management's survey of 400 manufacturing executives is scheduled for release at 10 AM ET on Friday. The executives would be quizzed on various measures, namely employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries and inventories. The index is expected to reveal a reading of 50.5 for the month of November.

The manufacturing index fell to 47.7 in December, marking the lowest reading since April 2003. The new orders index dipped to 45.7 in December from 52.6 in the previous month. The December reading marks the lowest level since the 2001 recession, thereby suggesting further weakness ahead.

The dollar value of new construction activity for the month of December is slated to be released at 10 AM ET on Friday. Economists expect spending on construction of residential, non-residential and public projects to have declined 0.5% in the month.

Construction spending rose 0.1% in November. On a more positive note, the October reading was revised higher to show a decline of 0.4% compared to the earlier estimated 0.8% fall. The upside was mostly due to strength in private non-residential construction spending, which was up 1.7%. However, residential construction spending declined 2.5%.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for the month of January is scheduled for release at 10 AM ET on Friday. Economists expect the index to come in at 79 compared to the preliminary reading of 80.5.

January 28, 2008 at 5:07 PM  

Anonymous said...

Asian stocks fall, haunted by economy fears

Jan 28 (Reuters) - SHARES in Asia fell 3 per cent on Monday as concerns over the health of the global economy returned to haunt stock markets, sending investors to seek safe haven government bonds.

The yen rose against other currencies as investors shunned riskier bets and unwound currency carry trades, while oil drifted back down below $90 a barrel with traders saying Friday's $1.30 surge might have been overdone after Wall Street ended the week on a down note following two days of sharp gains.

Europe's stock markets were tipped to fall, with financial bookmakers predicting Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's Dax and France's CAC-40 to open around 2 percent lower.

Investors resumed selling after last week's nerve-wracking rollercoaster, which saw global equity markets toppled by growing despair over the US economy earlier in the week and then lifted by a $150 billion (S$213 billion) stimulus plan agreed by US legislators and the White House.

'The sell-off is hitting all sectors regardless of each company's earnings and outlook,' said Mr Kim Joong Hyun, an analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities.

'Although last week's US rate cut has calmed down panic selling, a recovery from the economic woes and the financial sector's debt problems should take a long time.'

Seoul's KOSPI index shed almost 4 per cent. Foreign investors continued their selling spree for the 18th straight session, dumping 268 billion won (S$402.7 billion) in net value on the main board.

Japan's Nikkei benchmark ended down 4 per cent. Goldman Sachs said Japan's economy may be already in recession, due partly to weaker exports and sluggish consumption.

Australia's market was shut for a public holiday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 3 per cent, while MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific stocks excluding Japan fell 3.4 per cent by 0700 GMT, taking year to date losses back above 12 per cent.

Shanghai suffered the worst losses, falling 7 per cent, dented by heavy snow across central and eastern China, which is seriously disrupting food and energy supplies.

Davos Downer
Traders were eyeing this week's Federal Reserve meeting, at which the bank is set to cut US interest rates again, having slashed them in an emergency move last week.

World business leaders gathered in Davos for last week's meeting said on Saturday, the worst might yet be to come in a financial crisis driven by continuing fears of bank losses and uncertainty over US emergency stimulus measures.

Banks said there were few cures for a financial system faced with hundreds of billions of dollars in investments which have turned bad.

'It will be a while before you see a return of normalcy in banking and markets,' Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain said.

French bank Societe Generale's trading scandal remained in focus.

On Sunday, the bank defended its handling of the world's biggest trading scandal, but admitted its risk systems had failed to detect a 50-billion-euro market bet by a lone trader.

For a list of stories, click on For now, some investors sought safety in government bonds.

Japan's March 10-year futures rose 0.72 of a point to 138.08, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield fell to 1.405 per cent.

In the currency markets investors were looking to equity markets, seeking clues on whether to tiptoe back to risky carry trades, in which the low-yielding yen is used as a source of cheap funds to buy higher-yielding currencies.

The dollar fell to 106.12 yen while the high-yielding Australian dollar fell 0.8 percent against the yen Sterling fell against the yen and the dollar after a senior Bank of England official said interest rates need to be cut to prevent a sharp slowdown in British growth US crude fell 87 cents to $89.83 a barrel.

Gold and platinum traded near record highs supply fears lingered after South Africa's mines halted production due to a power crisis.

Spot gold rose to $917 an ounce from $918.00/919.00 an ounce late in New York on Friday, when the metal rallied to record high of $923.40 an ounce.

January 28, 2008 at 5:17 PM  

Anonymous said...

Japanese PM: No need to be overly pessimistic about current financial turmoils

27 January 2008

Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda said in Davos, Switzerland Saturday that there is no need to take an excessively pessimistic view of the current financial uncertainties but the world needs to coordinate urgently on the matter.

"There is no need to take an excessively pessimistic view of the current situation, but at the same time we do need to have a sense of urgency as we engage in coordinated actions while each country also implements necessary domestic response measures," said Fukuda addressing the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting.

He acknowledged that the risk of the global economic downturn is increasing against the backdrop of the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis in the United States and the surge of oil prices to record levels.

The matter will be discussed at the Feb. 9 G7 meeting in Tokyo, he said.

The five-day WEF annual meeting started in this Swiss ski resort Wednesday under the principal theme of "the Power of Collaborative Innovation."

The event drew about 2,500 of the world's political and business elite, including 27 heads of state or government, and more than 110 government ministers.

January 28, 2008 at 5:28 PM  

Anonymous said...

Gov't eases tolls for food trucks

China Daily
27 January 2008

The State Council, China's highest governing body, has issued a wide-reaching decree to speed up and ease food shipments to markets as winter storms lashing much of China hamper efforts to curb rising food prices.

The decree, issued late Friday and published in national press Saturday, calls on road police, railway bureaus and gas pump stations to do all they can to ensure timely delivery of food supplies after crushing snow and ice storms clogged roads, cut electricity and snailed deliveries.

Under the government measure, food trucks will be exempt from paying road tolls.

"The transportation of fresh farm products - including vegetables, fruits, livestock and poultry - faces an extraordinarily grave situation as another round of widespread continuous rain and snow will hit the country," said the notice issued by the executive office of the State Council located in Beijing.

The latest measures are intended to "guarantee market supplies for the Spring Festival and sustain basic price stability," the State Council said.

Complicating the government efforts has been the heaviest snowfall to hit central and southern China in more than 10 years, and more bad weather has been forecast for upcoming days.

On Saturday, ice, rain and snow closed highways, delayed trains and forced flight cancellations. The grave weather even downed power lines in Hunan Province, bringing 136 trains to a standstill.

In recent days the government has intensified efforts to assert order, setting price controls on many goods and energy supplies and trying to inspire farmers to produce more grain, vegetables, fruits and meats.

The newest government order called on police and roadway departments to give food trucks preferential treatment, waive all tolls and halt the spot inspections that often produce long lines on highways.

Gas stations are prohibited from raising prices and must allow food trucks to fill up their tanks, the directive said, squashing the sales limits some stations have used to make up for recent shortages in petrol supplies.

January 28, 2008 at 5:49 PM  

Anonymous said...

Rogue trader in £3.6bn fraud threatens to 'name names' as bank admits he may have had a gang

JULIE MOULT and PETER ALLEN
28th January 2008

Paris - The rogue trader accused of defrauding France's second largest bank out of £3.6billion is believed to have been part of a gang.

Executives at Societe Generale had originally insisted that 31-year-old Jerome Kerviel acted alone.

They compared him to a "lone arsonist who burnt down a big factory".

But yesterday they conceded that he was unlikely to have carried out his deception without accomplices.

And in interviews with detectives, Kerviel was said to be "naming names" and refusing to be a scapegoat.

As the hunt began for any co-conspirators, Societe Generale admitted that although it was the victim of the biggest fraud in history, it could have been worse.

Paris-based Kerviel had gambled a total of at least £37billion as his investment losses spiralled out of control - more than the bank's entire market value.

In a statement, it said Kerviel built up two portfolios of investments - but that one of them consisted of "fictitious operations", leaving the bank hugely exposed.

Detectives are working on information that he made a series of phone calls to traders at other investment banks before news of the scandal broke - allowing them to make highlylucrative deals based on his tips.

But Societe Generale has made it clear that Kerviel did not personally benefit from the fraud.

Jean Pierre Mustier, one of its chief executives, said: "I cannot guarantee to you 100 per cent that there was no complicity."

Today, the junior trader is expected to be charged with an array of complex offences and brought before a court in the French capital.

If found guilty of charges including computer misuse and forgery he could be facing a 15-year prison term.

Kerviel, who earned a relativelymeagre £75,000 a year, was arrested on Saturday, a week after his catastrophic dealing was uncovered.

A team of police financial specialists quizzed him for 48 hours as they tried to unravel the extent of his astonishing deception - four times that of British banker Nick Leeson.

Because of the complexities of the alleged crime, it is likely to be many months before the case is ready to be brought against him.

Kerviel had been investing the bank's money by hedging on European equity market indices, meaning he betted on how the markets would perform.

It was reported yesterday that he is co- operating fully with police during hours of interviews saying: "I can explain everything".

Jean-Michel Aldebert, chief of the financial section of the Paris prosecutor's office, yesterday said Kerviel was providing some "interesting facts".

"He is collaborating and says he is ready to explain everything. He says he wants to co-operate fully. He's feeling fine.

"It's going well. The investigation led by the experts from the financial brigade is extremely fruitful."

Family and friends are rallying round Kerviel, whose family home is in Brittany. A neighbour at his apartment block in Neuilly sur Seine said: 'Do you expect us to believe he was the only one in on this?

"It's ludicrous in the extreme to believe that just one person could be responsible for all of this."

Kerviel's aunt Sylviane La Goff said he had spent the 48 hours before his arrest locked in his brother Olivier's apartment on the Boulevard Hausman with their mother Marie-Jose.

As the scandal unfolded, he assured her: "Mummy, I have done nothing wrong."

The bank's chairman, Daniel Bouton, is expected to be ordered before the French national assembly's finance commission this week to explain how the massive fraud went unnoticed despite a plethora of so-called safeguards.

January 28, 2008 at 5:58 PM  

Anonymous said...

Asian Stocks Drop on Recession Fears

January 28, 2008

HONG KONG (AP) -- Global market turmoil continued into a second week as Asian markets tumbled Monday in the wake of Wall Street's sell-off Friday amid persistent worries about a possible U.S. -- and worldwide -- economic slowdown.

China's benchmark index plummeted 7.2 percent to its lowest point in six months on concerns that a recession in the U.S. would mean less demand for Chinese-made products. Hong Kong's market sank 4.3 percent while India's Sensex dropped 3.5 percent in afternoon trading.

U.S. stock index futures also were down, suggesting that Wall Street was poised to drop again when markets open.

Investors around the world have been jittery for weeks about a U.S. slump, which would likely weaken demand for exports and drag on global growth. There is also concern about a worldwide credit crunch triggered by rising defaults in risky U.S. mortgages, which has led to mountains of bad assets at major American and European banks.

''There's a lot of uncertainty out there: uncertainty over the U.S. economy, uncertainty over China's economy,'' said Rob Hart, an analyst with Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.

China's Shanghai Composite index plunged 342.39 points to 4,419.29 amid worries about weaker demand from American consumers. Concerns over the potential impact of a prolonged bout of severe winter weather also took a toll.

''Investors, especially institutional investors, are very cautious,'' said Chen Huiqin, an analyst at Nanjing-based Huatai Securities. She said investors were waiting for possible ''market rescuing'' signals from the Chinese government.

''That could have a strong impact on the market,'' Chen said.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 3.97 percent to close at 13,087.91, erasing its jump on Friday. Markets in South Korea and Taiwan also dropped.

Last week was a tumultuous one for global markets, and it appeared that the volatility would continue.

Asian and European stocks had plunged early last week on worries about slower U.S. growth. They rebounded after a hefty three-quarters cut in U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve last Tuesday, as well as news of a U.S. stimulus package. By Friday, markets in Hong Kong and Tokyo had nearly recovered their early week losses.

But investors in Asia dumped shares again Monday after Wall Street sank Friday, when the Dow Jones industrials slid 1.38 percent and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index declined 1.47 percent.

Some traders said Asian markets were dropping on concern that the Fed may not slash interest rates again -- or as much as expected -- when its policy planners meet Tuesday and Wednesday.

''The possibility for a 50 basis points cut is looking less likely,'' said Castor Pang, a strategist at Sun Hung Kai Financial in Hong Kong, pointing to future prices in New York.

Dow futures were down 141 points, or 1.15 percent, to 12,095, while Nasdaq futures were down 24 points, or 1.34 percent, to 1,769.5.

Japan's economy may already be contracting, said Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Japan.

He pointed out that five of the 11 components of Japan's business condition diffusion index have already hit highs and begun deteriorating. Declines in six of the 11 components often indicates a recession is coming.

''A recession, which was nothing more than a risk scenario six months ago, is now turning into our main scenario,'' Yamakawa said in a report released Friday.

Japanese traders also were cautious ahead of a slew of corporate quarterly earnings this week, including Honda Motor Co. on Wednesday and Sony Corp. on Thursday.

January 28, 2008 at 7:08 PM  

Anonymous said...

“法兴悲剧”告诉我们什么

作者：孔雪松
发布时间：2008-01-28 09:30
来源：中国证券报·中证网

　　历史往往有某些惊人的相似。

　　1995年，巴林银行前交易员里森因违规买卖日经股指期货，导致230多年历史的巴林银行一夜之间输掉14亿美元而倒闭。12年后的2008年，同样拥有200多年骄人业绩的法国第二大银行兴业银行，曝出巨额金融欺诈丑闻——31岁的交易员热罗姆·盖维耶尔在未经授权的情况下大量购买欧洲股指期货，造成49亿欧元（约71亿美元）损失。舆论更是指责由于该行几天前悄悄平掉头寸而引发全球股市暴跌。

　　同样拥有200多年历史，同样是一个年轻交易员的个人行为，同样是买卖股指期货，带来的几乎是同样的悲剧。

　　法兴银行此前扮演的是世界上最大衍生交易市场领导者的角色，一直被认为是世界上风险控制最出色的银行之一，可就在这样一个老牌银行，悲剧却不幸地发生了。

　　案发后，有记者采访巴林银行前交易员里森，他对此毫不惊奇。他认为现在的银行系统并没有接受以往的教训。一位不具名的兴业银行员工也告诉记者，这起欺诈案虽然罕见，但其实在日常交易中，它可能发生在每个交易员身上。

70多亿美元的损失，对任何一家银行来说都是一个灾难。法兴会不会像巴林一样垮掉，目前还不得而知。但法兴悲剧的发生，却不得不引起我们的思考：

　　首先，如何看待金融衍生品，特别是股指期货？一般说来，股指期货等金融衍生品，是市场深化的产物，有助于提高市场效率，有助于对冲风险。这也是我国积极筹备股指期货的初衷。但是，从当年的巴林银行丑闻，到今天的法兴银行悲剧，无不向我们敲响了警钟：对待股指期货等金融衍生品，虽然不能因为出了事而因噎废食，但确实应该持“如临深渊，如履薄冰”的态度。事实证明，股指期货是一柄双刃剑，它既有上述积极的一面，也蕴含了巨大的风险。特别是在从宏观到微观各项改革尚未到位的情况下，贸然行事，风险的一面很可能放大，甚至由个人和所在机构的风险演变为系统性风险。具有良好声誉和悠久历史的法兴银行尚且如此，难道我们还敢轻言推出股指期货条件已经成熟吗？我们现在应该做的是，本着对投资者负责、对市场负责、对金融安全负责、对国家经济稳定负责的态度，沉下心来，扎扎实实地打好基础，特别是要从方方面面扎好防范风险的“篱笆墙”。

　　其次，法兴悲剧告诉我们，再强大的安全系统也有漏洞。按照规定，银行的证券或期货交易员实行交易时，都会受到资金额度的严格限制。创建于拿破仑时代的法兴银行，内部风控不可谓不严，但“魔鬼天才”热罗姆硬是闯过5道电脑关卡，获得使用巨额资金的权限，违规操作近一年硬是没有被发现。由此警示我们，再严密的规章制度，再安全的电脑软件，都可能存在漏洞、死角。对银行系统的安全风控，绝不可掉以轻心。特别是在市场繁荣之际，应警惕因盈利而放松正常监管。

　　第三，法兴式的悲剧是否可以避免？回首十几年来金融衍生品市场的一个个悲剧，如巴林银行的倒闭、德国MGRM集团期货投资损失13亿美元案、美国对冲基金去年大赔66亿美元，更有近年来中国的中航油事件、国储铜期货案件等，似乎每隔一段时间就会发生一个大案。记者认为，金融市场出现这样或者那样的个案在所难免，时隔十数年出现这种震撼人心的悲剧，可能正是金融发展史的必然过程。问题是我们该如何正确对待？是遮遮掩掩，大事化小，小事化了，还是坦言相陈，并采取措施堵住漏洞。现在就有舆论质问：银行还隐瞒了什么？是否可以相信银行？相信这种质问会触发银行正确对待内部案件。

　　法兴悲剧的发生，是我们大家都不愿看到的，它也给全球金融风险管理敲响了警钟。但愿在中国股指期货引弓待发的今天，我们能从法兴悲剧中得到警示。

January 28, 2008 at 8:21 PM  

Anonymous said...

Gold Trades Near Record on Rate Cut Expectation, Africa Outage

28 January 2008

Gold neared a record high in Asia on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again to revive economic growth and as power disruptions in South Africa reduced production at some mines.

The Fed last week cut lending rates by 0.75 percentage point, the biggest reduction in 23 years. Interest-rate futures show traders expect the Fed will cut rates by an additional half percentage point this week. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd., Africa's biggest gold miners, were among companies affected by power shortages last week.

``Gold is boosted by the expectation that the Fed will have to pick and choose between fighting inflation or fighting recession,'' Wallace Ng, chief trader for precious metals in Asia Pacific at Fortis Bank, said by phone from Hong Kong today. ``It seems they have given up on inflation.''

Bullion for immediate delivery climbed as much as $7.69, or 0.8 percent, to $921.64 an ounce today, and traded at $920.88 at 12:15 p.m. in Singapore. Silver for immediate delivery was little changed at $16.58 an ounce.

Gold reached a record $923.73 an ounce on Jan. 25 as higher commodity prices and lower borrowing costs increased the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

Gold for February delivery gained $10.50, or 1.2 percent, to $921.20 an ounce in after-hours electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange at the same time.

Inflation Hedge

Some investors buy gold as it can hold its value better than other assets when inflation accelerates. The metal last surged to $850 in 1980 after U.S. inflation rose to 12 percent.

Gold may rise for a second straight week, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. Twenty-two of 29 traders, investors and analysts surveyed on Jan. 24 and 25 recommended buying gold, which rose 2.3 percent last week. Four said to sell, and three were neutral.

``Gold rises sharply and gets a little attention, corrects a part of the rise and the attention wanes, only to see gold make an even higher high,'' Peter Grandich, publisher of the Grandich Letter, a financial newsletter in Perrineville, New Jersey, said in a note to clients today. ``I fully suspect that should be the case until at least the breaking of $1,000, which is only a question of when, not if.''

Bullion for June delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, gained 0.69 yuan, or 0.3 percent, to 220.50 yuan a gram ($952 an ounce) at 11:30 a.m. local time break.

Gold for December delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange fell 19 yen, or 0.6 percent, to 3,167 yen a gram ($925 an ounce) at 1:20 p.m. local time.

January 28, 2008 at 8:36 PM  

Anonymous said...

January 2008

各大金融机构在MBS和CDO的撇帐:

1. Citigroup $24.1 bln

2. Merrill Lynch $22.5 bln

3. UBS AG $13.7 bln

4. Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln

5. Credit Agricole $4.8 bln

6. HSBC $3.4 bln

7. Bank of America $5.28 bln

8. CIBC bank $3.2 bln

9. Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln

10. Barclays Capital $2.7 bln

11. Bear Stearns $2.6 bln

12. RBS $2.6 bln

13. Washington Mutual savings and loan $2.4 bln

14. Swiss Re re-insurance $1.07 bln

15. Lehman Brothers $2.1 bln

16. LBBW $1.1 bln

17. JP Morgan Chase $2.9 bln

18. Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln

19. Freddie Mac mortgage GSE $3.6 bln

20. Credit Suisse $1.9 bln

21. Wells Fargo $1.4 bln

22. Wachovia $3.0 bln

23. RBC $0.360 bln

24. Fannie Mae mortgage GSE $0.896 bln

25. MBIA bond insurance $3.3 bln

26. Hypo Real Estate investment bank $0.580 bln

27. Ambac Financial Group bond insurance $3.5 bln

28. Commerzbank $0.427 bln

29. Societe Generale $3.0 bln

以下是因次按而破产的金融机构:

1. New Century Financial subprime lender April 2, 2007

2. Sentinel Management Group investment fund August 17, 2007

3. Ameriquest subprime lender August 31, 2007

4. American Home Mortgage mortgage lender August 6, 2007

5. American Freedom Mortgage, Inc, subprime lender January 30, 2007

6. Terra Securities November 28, 2007

7. NetBank on-line bank September 30, 2007

January 29, 2008 at 6:57 PM  

Anonymous said...

写这篇非常感谢，这是unbelieveably信息，并告诉我一吨.

January 26, 2011 at 9:32 AM  

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

Mondays are allways ruff.

January 16, 2013 at 6:06 AM  

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