All in a day's work

This company has been on my list for the longest of time and 'm not going to give it up yet for other companies despite it's drop from $0.50+.

Here, I'm not going to have a story telling session on this company but just something short and sweet for sharing purposes on TA since it's really been some time since I last posted.

As seen from the charts, downtrend is still intact although it broke out from it's first trend but still, it's within the bigger trend. Not a good sign yet.

However, there is one thing that is worth of note. Courage Marine is currently heading to it's latest low of $0.11. Could that be a time to buy, personally yes. But then again, the economic conditions is definitely not recovering in the mean time and could in fact, worsen. The earnings of this company is dependent on the BDI, a future economic indicator, which may not be heading north in the coming days/weeks. Another point worth pointing out is the increased selling volume experienced in the last 3 days, definitely not something encouraging.

Technicals aside, this company has yet been through a major economic crisis since it's founding in June 2001. So this is the time to observe if this company has the right personnel to bring the company into a better era. So unless everything starts to show signs of settling, and my dear company manage to survive, I will definitely buy in.

For 3Q2008, CM has managed to nett a US$38.9m profit, a flattish profit as the management puts it, considering the oil rices and all the nonsense in recent months, personally it is not all bad. This is due to the tight financial controls by the management, credit to them. Another point which I like about CM is the $0 debt and all it's net assets are backed by cold hard cash, which the mangement can utilise to increase gearing to avoid cashflow issues.

Lastly, something interesting to point out is that in current times, CM has signed an agreement to buy one additional vessel.

I've yet to drill the report partly because I'm still waiting for the full FY08 AR where it will be clearer the impact the economic conditions has on CM.

Till then........ Cheers

Chart of DJ

support broken










Nikkei

support broken











STI

support broken













Hang Seng

support NOT broken









For your own interpretation

US President, Franklin D Roosevelt once wanted to use constitutional prerogatives to drive "money changers" out of the temple. He once said that "money changers" must be cast down from their "high seats in the temple of out civilization and America must "restore that ancient truths" that growing, making, managing and inventing should have higher status, honor and rewards than what financiers do.

This current period really reflects his vision.

Just look around.

"Adapted from The Business Times"

Hi people,

For some of you who might be wondering since my last mention of the set up, has there been any progress.

Good news to all, I've potentially liaised with 3 suppliers till date and "Finance Books" will be the key areas that I'll focus on. I'm quietly confident that my pricing should be at least 15% off the market price.

At this current moment, I've tried playing with blogspot while the e-commerce website is in the progress of getting finalised.

Till there's other news on it, I'll update in all my blogs. haha!

Just wait !! The Sale is here !!

Brace yourself for this historic moment of your life! Dow Jones dropped almost 770+ points in one day, that a whopping 7-8% drop!

I wonder when will we ever see this again.

Honestly, being logical people, sit back and think.
Think from a business prospective.

1. You are presented a plan that requires you to fork out a HUGE sum of $.
2. This plan is not complete, there are loopholes/ questions.
3. It is YOUR money and there are people hounding you for it, with a lousy plan
4. It MAY NOT be the final solution.
5. It's not your problem in the first place.

Would you give up your huge reserves? Still hopeful?
Oh well, just a thought.

"It costs a lot of money, the lights, the circuit and the organisation. But it is a great investment for the city. And, of course, it is fantastic for F1. It is, in the best sense of the word, a highlight," Mercedes motorsport vice-president Norbert Haug said.

If some of you still do not know, there has been some major share buyback programs that has been declared recently.

1. Microsoft - US$ 40b
2. HP - US$ 8b
3. Nike - US$ 5b
4. Vodaphone - US$ 2b
5. Anheuser Busch - US$ 1b

These are the biggest companies in the world that has been declaring their Shares Buyback program.

So what exactly is Shares Buyback?
In this post, I'll only address Shares Buyback and not other FA theories or Formulas

First and foremost, please understand that cash used for the buyback can always be used alternatively on new investments, new products or marketing, which MIGHT increase the revenue of the company.

Investor Point of View

1. When the fund buys its shares at a discount, the net-asset value for the remaining shareholders rises.

Imagine a company has $100 in assets and 10 shares issued, making each share be worth $10.

If the Share Price is trading at $9 and the company buys back 1 shares at $9, what is left is assets of $91 and 9 shares.

This buyback increases the NAV per share to $10.11, or 1.1%

2. Buying back of shares creates an impression that the management is confident of the prospects of the company and feels that at current traded price, the company is undervalued.

3. A Buyback reduces the number of shares available, thus increasing the company's earnings-per-share and makes it appear more attractive.

Company's Point of View

Before we go into this area, 2 points to note:

Shareholders and Management are 2 different class of personnel in the Company.

Has it occured to you the fact that instead of a buyback, why not increase the Dividends paid out?

1. The Management of the company might have a clause to receive compensation in relation to the company stock price. This simply means that with the higher the stock price, the more it benefits the mangement, be in stock options or bonus.

2. Stock buyback has the immediate impact on the share price. Short Termist Management will deem this strtegy as the most effective as compared to Divided Payout.

So Now What ?

Look for Cash Flow and Dividends Payout.

Dividend Payout Ratio - With a lower dividend payout ratio, Company A will have more Cash to reinvest in the business. However, do note is the business is worth the investing.

I mailed MIIF my queries during the recent major selldown and I was pleasantly surprised by the warm response by their VP with regards to my queries.

Just for sharing purposes with what I can still remember.

Macquarie bank bas 11% shareholding in MIIF and the directors in MIIF are all on contractual basis. Even if Macquarie Bank in Australia does collapse, MIIF is still independent on itself.

Last year, when the Script Option was announced, only about 20% of the shareholders took up script. That, being said, means that even with script offered, the dilution of current shareholders is not strong, rather, it is not much of a concern.

MIIF takes pride in distributing 100% of its net profit to shareholders and as the CP terms it, is to prevent laziness. With regards to not keeping profits for asset purchases. he gave the explanation that there is sufficient debt facility which MIIF has access to and the returns from the investments will more than enough repay the interests generated. Not forgetting the fact that MIIF has assets that has been set aside ready for sale to generate cashflow, if need be.

With regards to its last div payout, MIIF is generally in a good financial position, although it seems that they have declared above what profits that had been reported in 1H2008, which is not the case. From Jul to Aug, MIIF did received another cash inflow from its operations. As reported in 1H2008, revenue from its new acquistions will be reflected in the 3Q report.

Recent movements in share price could be due to speculations and hedge funds movements. Fundamentally, MIIF is still there same.

This is what I can remember of the conversation I had over the phone. I've have yet verified the statements nor am I going to do so. I've already lowered my average cost and looking forward to the 3Q report and the 2H2008, which will reflect their major movements this year.

Looking at the chart last Dec, it was still a $2.00 counter. Within the 9 months, it lost close to 80% in value. Is that something serious to be concerned about.

In TA, VALUE is not a concern. Fundamentally, it is not one counter I'll put my $ in for long term, time horizon 3 years and more. Not because it is a lousy company but I've not done any analysis fundamentally about it yet.

I'm personally vested last Friday and my opinions MIGHT be biased.

1. Not a strong cause to state when I say that there is a b/o but still it's near the gap price @ 0.67.

2. Check the trades done intra day on Friday and you have a reason to believe that there is accumulation on this counter, although there is strong selling. This is the same to GAR on Wednesday and Thursday when in 1 trade, 6m shares is done, sold down but the market absorbed it. When the selling is done and the accumulation is in process, it could mean some upward strength.

3. Not a frequent user of indicators, but MACD looks to converge and MFI looks good.

Unless I missed out something OR I am wrong in my analysis, do drop me a comment !! Thanks people.

After so many days and weeks of going down, STI and in fact global markets finally "see" some light. In fact, this rally that'd happen took me by surprise.

1. It happens just after America decides to bail out AIG.
2. 2 of the top Investment Banks in the world liquidated.
3. Top banks are still looking for solutions to prevent liquidation due to their credit issues.

The million dollar question, is this sustainable and will this spark another bull run. Personally, No.


The fundamental issues are still lingering and out world's financial big boss is really in some sort of debt concerns. Printing $ and absorbing bad debts is definitely not the long term solution, or am I missing some important knowledge here, if so please enlighten me.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Technically, as seen, we finally saw HUGE buying up. It's a positive sign, finally but still we need to watch for the resistance level at about 2770, the small gap formed about a month ago.

From the RSI, STI has been in long oversold, but then again, this is no reason to assume that a rebound is at hand, then again, it's is just another indicator that a rally, big or small, COULD be here, it's just when.

Any other technical information can be intepreted from the chart posted.

This topic is on my mind for a period of time.

Why do people chase after IPO. I can never understand.
Doesn't chasing IPOs almost equates to gambling?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Extracted from Wikipedia,

Initial Public Offering (IPO), also referred to simply as a "public offering", is when a company issues common stock or shares to the public for the first time. They are often issued by smaller, younger companies seeking capital to expand, but can also be done by large privately-owned companies looking to become publicly traded.

In an IPO, the issuer may obtain the assistance of an underwriting firm, which helps it determine what type of security to issue (common or preferred), best offering price and time to bring it to market.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd like to draw your attention to a few points.

1. First time.

Alright don't bother about First time. The point I'm trying to bring across is that, companies that are listed may not be companies of a rich history of proven growth. Neither are companies listed for the sole purpose to benefit the shareholders, the "outsiders". If nothing is proven, how can you access it's worth?

2. Seeking capital to expand

Is there a common belief that companies that gets itself listed is a good and profitable company? Didn't it occur to anyone that it is the company that NEEDS the capital, our $, to expand NOT that we need the company to grow our wealth. Is the difference clear enough?

Not forgetting the fact that the capital required is by no means a small amount. It is huge. So by linking the above point, a new company needing huge capital influx, doesn't it simply means that the shares that is offered to the public is not cheap, rather it should be valued at it's maximum already?

3. Underwriting fees

Okay! This is the obvious, no companies gets listed for free.

Well, I don't deny that there could be companies that is very stable getting listed, take MASTERCARD for example. I'm obviously not going into this aspect but the ones that no one hear of. Somewhere out there, some group of people decides to list in SGX and the hype starts all over again.

1. Read/Hear the news of a potential company dealing with oil, not heard of, getting listed.
2. Head towards the atm and subscribe for the shares, and hope.
3. If the subscription went through, celebrate. Else,luck's fault.
4. If @ opening it went higher, credit it to one's intelligence.
5. If @ opening it went lower, REMAIN HOPEFUL and wait for a rebound.
6. Lastly, blame the company but yourself.

There are over 500 companies listed on SGX with proven results and records, why one that is new and unheard of.

Chase IPOs? Think again.

Buying into MIIF is buying into fund more than a business. The primary reason for my inital purchase is for Div play at around 10% p.a.

A glance over the 1H2008 report, this is what I've gathered.

1. MIIF disposed off 4 Assets (namely DUET, MAP, MCG and MIC) that generate Distribution Income, Brussels Airport and TanQuid which contribute a inflow of $35 m in the same period last year.

I've asked the management on this issue and what I've been replied is that MIIF is focusing it's assets into the higher growth Asia region and thus acquired InfraVest, HNE and TBC. As stated, the current drop in revenue should not be of a major concern as yet, as the management states that payment from it's new acquistions are in arrears, which should be reflected in the 2H2008 report. We'll see.

2. SDS scheme that is available will dilute the current shareholders' holdings, but the management has replied that not everyone will take up the scheme and should not affect a great deal, but still 'll continue to remain cautious in this aspect in the long term.

3. By declaring a div of 4.25cents for 1H2008, 'm a satisfied man. Within my expectations.

So far, 'm quite alright with the long term prospects of this counter.

I bought this counter for div play! Let's see if the 1st half will disappoint.

I hope not.

'm quite "bored" reading books relating to investing and dug out this book which I bought at a discount some time back. It has been left lying there for like a good 1 year? ha!

This story has a pretty simple buildup yet a very mystical ending, which tries to drive the point to readers, to chase their dreams. A very simple read.

Flash back about 1 year ago, I picked up TA from an old friend of mine and got myself "addicted" to stocks and patterns. I went through charts after charts and entered my 1st trade. Since then, I've yet to stop or drop this "interest" of mine, but in fact ventured into FA and Business Analysis, the simplified version around March 08.

What then is chasing the dreams, for me? Don't fall into the trap which a lot of people is HOPING, the millions that the market holds or the overnight riches from a gap up. If one chases desperately for the material things in life, honestly he might have lived in vain as this world is but temporal and when time is up, we will have to leave everything behind.

So fellow traders/investors, don't just chase the $. It's important to lead a balanced life or rather a fulfilling life. Be contented.

At the end of the day, look at the bigger picture, how much do one actually need? Just a thought. Cheers.

** This book did not change my opinion towards my goals, but I just thought of a sharing it briefly through this entry.

Every working day, the Baltic canvasses brokers around the world and asks how much it would cost to book various cargoes of raw materials on various routes—150,000 tons of iron ore going from Australia to China or 150,000 tons of coal from South Africa to Taiwan. Brokers are also asked to consider variables such as the type and speed of the ship and the length of the voyage.

The answers are melded into the BDI, which appears in shipping publications such as Lloyd's List and on the screens of information vendors such as Reuters and Bloomberg. Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," as the Baltic puts it, it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade.

The BDI is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.

Because the supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and ships are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in the Arizona desert—marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly. And significant increases in demand can push the index sharply higher.

- Daniel Gross

The index is also seen as a good economic indicator of future economic growth and production, termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

- Wikipedia

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For sharing purposes for those who might be interested in dry bulk companies.

Do you want one of these?

While we are worrying here about a 6% inflation, somewhere out there, there's A NEED for this kinda bill.

Oh for the record, Zimbabwe, grappling with a record 2.2 million percent inflation.

SMRT Taxis says it will remove the surcharge when diesel price drops to S$1.19 per litre, which was the market rate in December last year.

quoted from
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/20080720/tap-383-smrt-taxis-introduce-30-cent-fue-231650b.html

Do they even know it's 1.9 now?

If there is still anyone here looking at my blog, this is my update.

I've not been posting much as I am currently venturing into fundamental analysis which I'd think better suits my investing objectives and future schedule.

Technical Analysis will not be chucked aside, obviously, but I will not post TA charts as much as before or rather, ONLY IF there's something DAMN interesting.

So friends, I'm still alive and kicking, just that I'm rather inactive at the moment. To post anything regarding FA, I think there are better sites you people can refer to like, LP's blog. =)

Perhaps, something to mention is that

1. Singpost should be buying back some of it's shares soon.

2. MIIF has taken a bad beating so far, but still relatively attractive in my opinion. It has fallen to my entry price, should I add to my position.

3. Is Sinotel considered unvalued at this moment?

4. In the Palm sector, which company amongst the smaller 3 can be the next big thing. Is there any chance.

5. Water is being heavily invested, is it worth entering, HyfluxT? Not too sure myself but one thing for sure,

I do not have such a huge capital for allocation. =)

Hmmm...

The 1st 2 counters I bought when I first started.

This counter has been on the top volume almost everyday these few days, sustaining lots of selling pressure. It's recent uptrend has been broken with 2 dojis, to me it's "hesistation".

Using Fibbo, it can be seen that 0.985 is a support which has yet been breached for 2 consecutive days of testing that line. Intraday wise, there's pretty much of buying at 0.985. Should this be broken, it's 0.935 but then again, this price seems pretty strong at the moment.

Sorry if my chart looks messy. I just thought of including the bollinger band cause it seems to show the Resistance and Support pretty clearly.

To me for short term, 5d MA seems acceptable but then it's subjective and differs from individual. Last closing broke 5d MA. Not very nice, but not totally hopeless.

Support as seen from bollinger band is near 0.72, which is supported by the candlesticks as shown.

3.15 Support, period

Note that in almost every May the share price will definitely drop. Nothing to be seriously worried about since it's after it's Div payout. I've got the impression or read that this company's payout is 100%. So a dip in share price due to the outflow of cash, is perfectly normal.

Fundamentally, I've yet to really go into it deep, but I've got the impression that this coy is good. I mean how can it not be? It's ST, and who is it's backer? Who does maintainance for SAF? 100% payout! Or am i mislead? ha!

This counter appeared on my shortlist ever since I saw it's trading channel from 3.6 to 4. But my interest on it increased on it's recent breaking of it's 200MA.

I'm waiting to collect at the price range of 3.61-3.63, if it ever happen but anyway, I read from sharejunction that they will annouce their results coming Wednesday. So 'll just be patient till then.

If it comes, it comes. Else it's alright cause I've got ST Eng under my radar also.
Another heavy weight trending on support.

Taken from Soccernet.

Once again, reconfirmed as champions!

An old bird closing the chapter,scoring the last goal, in the league for the club for Year 07/08.
A young bird hitting 41 goals, with 1 more game to go.

Nothing materially gained from them being champions but it's just good to see them win the league. Pride! Ha!

Next up, UCL in 9 days time.
Another hit on Chelsea's ego would sum up a very satisfactory season for Man United!

We are the champions.... We are the champions.... We are the champions !!!!

I've made a huge mistake at my entry price on this counter. A simple analysis is shown on the chart.

Rightfully, I've spotted the trend that it rebounds off it's peak and off it's support. If one manage to catch the 2nd and 3rd rebound off the support and the 3rd and 4th rebound off the peak, I think that person is a happy man. =) I din, but I've learnt a bit in my 1st ever serious short position.

I did not take time to observe the movement of the counter but hastily entered a position quite off the possible peak. I was impatient. Note: Shorting is a total different ball game all together.

Taking a closer look on hindsight, I think I learnt a few things off this 1st short position.

People interested in shorts, dun plunge head in. Do a more detailed analysis.

More profits can be taken from a short if done right. Be careful.

In response to DJ breaking of the 13000 barrier I previously posted, STI reacted in the similar reaction today. As pointed out by my friend, TraderStudent, a Inverse H&S formation is spotted but not completed.

But the postive thing to note, despite the possible failure is that STI is still above 3,150, a resistance turned support as seen on the previous days of trading.

Today, with STI closing

1. Slightly above 200MA

2. Above the neckline of the inverted H&S

3. Above the support line drawn, this is subjective

4. Considerable volume.

Are we going to trend along this region or drop. This is the million dollar question, nevertheless HSI, has recovered it's gap. Technically, we are recovering, but then again, bombs could be dropped again to supress the prices for the BIG PLAYERS to earn more, as usual.

The news creator, analysts = Biggest earners. Agree? To me, it is.

It has been some time since I've done a chart on index.

Few things worth noticing, the channel DJ is now in. It is currently, FINALLY, trading above it's 200MA, not by a lot but a little. Nearest resistance not too far off at around 13000.

Not all is bad now on the chart, although almost 120 points of gains wad given up in the last 2 hours of trading on DJ when FED talked a bit too much =)

Let's see if this current trend can hold/break.

Oh! My FIRST dividends has been declared. This is emotional, exciting, this is history in the making!!!

Fibbo Retracements

Falling Volume.

Immediate Resistance?

Still bullish? worth buying @ anything higher than 3.50? When it's middle of no where.

Caveat Emptor!

Did I juse see a hammer on DJ @ 12800+

Tsktsktsk, this rebound came late or is it a rebound.

Be careful.

Sidelining might not be a bad thing.

I am back!

At least I've decided to change my chatbox, something which killed my interest to blogging since I cannot see any response.

Blogging idead does at times become a chore, a one-sided affair.

I would not be active here but then again would check my chatbox frequently to respond. Ideas and thoughts are coming waves after waves, it's not easy to put to words.

All else aside, the resistance @ 0.965, unless broken, expect rebound off it.

Just a simple analysis, nothing complex =)

I cannot see my chatbox, neither can I log in through my window. Is there any solutions to this problem?

Anyone who can suggest something, mail me at Jingxiong@Hotmail.com or add me on msn @ jingxiong@Hotmail.com and tell me a solution.

Else I'll be closing this site down already =)

LP: I can't see ur chatbox either!

Guys, I've just gotten a new laptop and somehow, I dun seem to be able to log see my pager properly, meaning, I cannot directly go to click on new post or sign in. I've to go through the blog of others to sign in.

What's the problem and any solutions?

I'll be posting on the belated posting on "Way of the Turtle" due to the theft of my laptop on Monday. Just got the connection back on Friday.

In addition, I'll be posting on some thoughts that went through my mind these few days, hopefully someone can enlighten my queries.

I am sure all of you would be familiar with these 2 charts.

STI:



5 rising days
4 days buying strength
Trading on support of 2960

Dow Jones:



Broke support of uptrend.
4 "red" days
4 days of selling volume

Does this make you think? It didn't for me. =)

Comments/ Advice greatly appreciated.

Honestly, I have my doubts even with the 400+ points rally.

Take your time to buy =)

I'm trying at the moment, to build a portfolio that generates reasonably stable cash inflow in the next 5 years.

At the moment, I'm looking into REITS, namely,

1. Allco Reit (Due to the worldwide area diversification in pty portfolio)
2. Suntec Reit (Holding SG pty)
3. K-Reit (Holding SG pty)
4. First Reit (Medical Pty worldwide)

I'll most probably pick one/two of the above to be added to my burgeoning portfolio.

Things to consider for REITs,

1. Economic Moat
2. Income Streams
3. Payout Ratio

Hopefully I'll get these companies sorted out soon enough.
But of couse, I'll still be trading in the meantime.
Anyone who might be interested to learn together, drop me a mail =)

STI, nothing interesting! Biong Biong Biong!

Support at 2800, still holding. Flat day on Monday, perhaps?

Anyway, I just want to point out the fact that although there are rebounds off 2800, but the peak is getting lower, a point of concern as support may not hold for long. Nothing exciting, until it clears 2150, imo, the nearest resistance. Perhaps, 2800 can still hold for Monday as all eyes would be on the FED CUT, coming this week. Perhaps only perhaps. =)

As posted in one of the posts this weekend, I mentioned about talking about Dow Jones and, here goes.

Support @ 11,700.
Downtrend in progress obviously.

As highlighted in blue, notice how rallies were not sustained. I would not spend too much time explaining on them. Lazy =)

Latest downtrend still in check, tested but not broken. Bad news but nevertheless, the support of 11,700 still holds, probably a rebound after 18th March and Monday still being a RED day? Well, that's what I think based on TA.

FA wise, it's just another stop gap solution to their problem.
Avoid Recession, Bother about inflation later, when greenbacks are depreciating? Problem still lingers...... Just my personal opinion.

I'm sure some of you who might be reading this post right now, did dumb your positions upon hearing the news of the possible court case regarding the auctioning of their assets. Intra day movement, on the day of news release, went to $0.8.

In fact last Friday, I was thinking of doing a trade on this counter but at the entry price of $0.93, the temp support for this counter, which in my opinion, provides an acceptable margin of safety.
But when I turned on my com at work, the price went up to 1.1+, GREAT!

Anyway, I've two links with regards to the news below, if you're interested.

The reason for the Gap down:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aX6GDh_CK9Tk

The reason for the Gap up:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080314/tbs-markets-singapore-stocks-a5a65c6.html

How will investors now view them? Sigh, If only I'd looked at this chart, a day earlier. Ha!
Well, IF ONLY. =)

This is what I use to console myself, a quote from KAY, "It's okay to miss a few, cause, the market last longer than you."

CWT. A Logistic Company by nature. I once mentioned that I wanted to do a study on this company, but at the moment, I really cannot find the time to do it. My apologies.

Anyway, based on TA this chart is "pretty" in my opinion. The recent prices tested the resistance and support, so we are in for some movement soon, perhaps next week I hope.

At the last closing, the price sat nicely @ $0.84, a support formed recently. There'd be some margin of safety is a position is entered @ $0.84, as the next resistance I see would be at $0.8, afterwhich, it would not be nice.

Resistance is some way off, @ $0.95 but then again, since this is not a very volatile counter, no point entering trade, you can WAIT LONG LONG for a sale to be done, unless you compromised on the price.

From my last glance of this company's financial statements, I'm given the impression that this company has very steady income streams and in fact, they are building on their capacity, which would in turn, increase their earning growth.

Personally not vested into this company yet, but I do have the intent to enter this company for long, not a trade. So I'm secretly hoping that the irrational market will further throw this price down, thus increasing my potential dividend yield. =)

ChinaMilk, a company that produces semen other than milk for sales. Well that's what I was told by LP. Ha!

Did a simple analysis on it as this counter just added itself into my shortlist a few days back. I'm waiting to do a trade in this counter @ 0.65, semmingly the support of this counter, sustained throughout last week.

This counter is still in it's downtrend as seen from the two downwards lines drawn. Something to note, those sticks that shot out of the resistance are caused by gap ups, meaning overnight bullish sentiments but was never sustained. I will further drive into this point later when I post a view on DJ.

$0.84 is currently the price to break before any meaningful reversal. Sentiments on this counter can be considered bullish, judging from it's MACD and RSI.

Of course, with the fact of issues on rising costs, government policies and demand in China, this counter will somehow be affected. I'm not going into it's FA here cause it's take a lot of time and somehow China counters are not really what I'm looking at for long term, YET.

Well, nothin much to conclude but, it'll be in my shortlist for trade for the coming week. =)

I'm looking foward to a rebound this week. Not because of any particular reason but just that if there is no rebound coming soon, the Jan low will be broken and that won't be a pretty sight!

Today the closing is considered good. Very interesting if you were to compare the reaction of the market after the closing from DJ the night before, HS, Nikkei and STI all ended green, perhaps this is a sign of something to come soon? Let's just see.

As pointed out last night when I was chatting on LP's blog, the triangle was broken with the gap down. But as seen, our index is quite well supported at 2800, tested on 2 occasions and not neglecting the fact that the last closing went above the intra day range on Monday. Good sign but we cannot forget we're still in a volatile market.

I'm not going to go into the other resistance levels on STI but just silently watching it break the nearest resistance perhaps. I'm silently hopeful, although I know I should not be BUT ...... let's just see.

ST Engg. This defensive counter has just appeared on my shortlist not too long ago. Too bad, I'm not so rich as to stock up this counter, but perhaps I might buy in soon.

TA: With the free fall, from my view, I see support at $3.12, which was almost tested today. From my lines, I think those who know a little bit of TA can roughly get what is on my mind. By the way, I drew those lines in 5 mins. Ha! As someone who is not vested, I have this silent hope that it drops more so that I might be able to collect cheaper =x. No offense!

FA: What actually attracts me to this counter is that, this company has a payout ratio of 100%. I mean, which company can boast that? This can only mean 2 thing.

1. The company cannot expand anymore and excess cash is not useful to it's business.
2. The company is just too well supported and such payout is acceptable to the Board.

I have yet to do a detailed study as I'm still "groping" my way around Business/Fundamental Analysis but soon... hopefully, I can share my knowledge with you people.

Oh! And to add to that, the div is increasing Year-to-Year.

Just sharing. =)

Genting Intl, a counter which my dad used to ask me to consider getting because of the IR craze and the fact that it's a casino based industry. Precisely because of the same reasons, I did not bother to look at it. I was reminded of this counter again by, noob, someone who posted in my chatbox asking me to give his my noobish opinions. So here goes.



Dear noob,

If you were to enter this counter @ 0.80+, it's definitely not a good sign technically. If you were to look at the chart, the counter has yet to break it's 200MA, being the nearest resistance. Never mind about the gap down resistance.

The support of 0.615 has been created and has so far, in my opinion, sustained. Not a really bad sign but do note the Bollinger Band tightening. Expect Big movements soon. Perhaps another institutional buying as seen from history when prices were all pushed up in a single day with astonishing volume. Not a good sign.

In general, unless it recovers from the gap down, unless the bollinger band breaks upwards, unless the 200MA is broken, unless the dividend payout is fantastic, unless you own the company, otherwise, I personally would not encourage the purchase of this counter.

Technically, not very good. Fundamentally, it's not my type of business.

Anyway this is just my opinion. It's all up to you.

Perhaps I may be wrong.

This is one counter that fell from it's high of $2.80 till now less than $1 in the span of 4 months. I do believe that this counter has caused a lot of people to lose a fair amount of $$.

I've done a simple analysis based on the candlesticks and chart alone, simplified. The important question is, are there telling signs for it's up and down?

To help you understand, I've used Green and Red Arrows to illustate the telling signs.

Red - Signs to buy
Green -Signs to sell

I'll start with the green arrows.

• Firstly, a doji with a long tail is formed, signifying a possibility of a bottom and that there is some bullish sentiments on this counter.
• Next, there is a breakout from previous high and the price advance a little to $2.25.
• Notice the third arrow, breaking the resistance set a around $1.90 with the rounded top over a few days some weeks back.
• Lastly, $2.35 gap support was tested again and a doji was formed, bullish still.

Now I'll go to the red arrows.

• $2.73 was tested but then again, it did not close above with the intra day price hitting $2.86.
• Not a good sign. $2.35 gap support broken, 1st level of resistance broken.
• Another strong support is broken at $1.85, the rounded top in Jan'08.
• After the $1.85 was broken, 3 days of intensive selling brought about 2 days to strugglt but notice how the price did not even hit $1.60, the last opening price for the 3rd day with consecutive drop.
• Lastly, the price of $1.2 was broken. A price where I once posted, the tweezer bottom.

Based on TA, there had been signs. It's quite obvious and seems almost to be shouting at your face. "SELL ME!!!!!', but did hope prevail? Did you lost temporary lost the battle with Mr. Market. Live to fight another day.

'm sure there would be thoughts that say, it's easier to comment based on historical data since it'd happened. But well, if you're trading short term, cutting loss is like buying insurance. Do you buy an insurance and curse when nothing happen to you?

But then again, I do think that based on earning capacity, YZJ should not have lost so much ground. But then again it's a personal opinion. Still looking for signs of bottoming, but will not be rash. A falling knife causes even more damage.

From the FY06 and unaudited reports, CWT seems be be growing fairly well, in fact, it does has room for expansion.

Now I'm waiting to take a look at it's FY07 report and most prob, put my head on the chopping board for this coy, but we'll see till then. Sorry people. =)

I'm trying to mail Lian Beng on my queries only to realise that there is no such links. Perhaps this is one reason why Aztech is awarded. Ha!

Nevertheless, I've mailed them to ask for the Point of Contact. Hopefully, I get a reply.

Next Company, CWT. If I have the time.

In the meantime, if any of you has things to discuss, don't feel shy to add me on my msn or email me, under my profile.

I think I started off on the wrong foot by choosing a construction company to start my valuation. But I do admit that through it's Financial Statements, I get a pretty good sense of it's business. Before this, I bought it as it was trending above 200MA but I think this is going to be another sinking ship soon. Ha!



From the P&L, I do see a lot of questions. Perhaps my inexperience and lack of knowledge, but to answer the questions that I have, I'd be mailing them my queries. Hopefully, they would be like Aztech, prompt in answering, but then again Aztech is awarded Gold for Investor Relations. Ha!

1. The most pressing question that I have is, why is there a loss from discontinued operations amounting to about $2.6m. This amount is substantial, taking out about 20%from their profits. Ouch!

2. Stated in the other income are 2 entries of Gains on sale from Plant and Equipement and also, Negative Goodwill. Why should Goodwill be calculated into Other Operating Income. Net Gains from sales is non business, in this sense, and being prudent, I'd take these amount out, which adds to around $1.2m. Ouch!

As declared, they have an EPS of 77 cents for FY07 but then again, if I were to calculate, their EPS is only around 49 cents. Still, an increase from FY06 of about 9 cents which is still not too bad, increase of about 22%.

One unfriendly aspect of their FS is that I have to do my own % calculation, unlike some companies which I've browsed through, stating clearing the +ve or -ve % compared to the previous FY.

Revenue has came down 17% and Gross Profiut is naturally affected 2%. Isn't this interesting, a big drop in Revenue but only a 2% drop in GP. There could be many reasons to it, which I might not want to speculate into.

I need help on this. I did a NAV on this company to see the Share Price and, "Wa-la", I got the figure of around 6 cents. I did it using the given figures w/o going into details. But why is the Share price so low? Is this normal?? HELP!!! I need enlightenment!! =)

Construction contracts in general, according to FRS 11, is really hard to estimate the exact profts they might make in the year but as the company is paid by % completion. However, One thing I like about Lian Beng is that it is pretty diversified but their core income of more than 80% still comes from it's core business. Not a bad thing but, it might be better if the other streams of income can be improved.



In this valuation, I did not go into the many details like cashflow or BS, but just on their P&L.
My apologies but I'm still learning, but in my coming analysis, I do believe that I should improve.

Maybe I'll touch on this company again but then again, I do have queries on it to carry on.

A view on the mentioned companies:

1. YangZiJiang
2. Lian Beng
3. CWT

Provided if I have time to do the analysis for all of them. But I'll definitely try to do at least 1, hopefully two.

In times like this, when the market is heading nowhere in particular, news affect the general market sentiments greatly.

For 3 days of DJ, news has "forced" the market to react to the news. Namely, IBM shares buyback, Stagflatation report and the latest, another round of Interest Cut. Are we heading to the 1% rate again? Ha!

STI, as usual, is moving slowly, perhaps cautiously, during these few weeks.

've currently added Singpost to my portfolio and still looking around for bargains, though Singpost is not really one but nevertheless, do let me know if you knwo of any.

Apologise for this very aimless post, but then again, the market is quite boring recently. Nothing exciting, imo. Once again, if you wanna get, buy on supports in times like these. Lotsa shorters out there. Be careful.

1. I'm almost done with the book, "The Intellligent Investor", and I must say it's a good read, although it can be pretty boring due to the technical terms but being in Accounting helps just a little bit. No regrets on the purchase of this book w/o discount @ $35. Ha! I'll be posting some points which I gather from the read soon, probably, end of this week.

2. If some of you still do not know, we are really in the very volatile period. Don't throw your $$ into counters when everything is rising, that's against the principle of buying low and selling high. Don't you still already get it?

3. I've observed that China plays are exceptionally volatile these 2 days and please think thrice about entering your positions. Heed resistance and support lines on charts. Once again, dun buy in the middle of no where!! Gets you nowhere!

4. I'm currently looking into putting my already very little $$ into defensive counters for yield play. Eyeing SingPost, cheapest monopoly, I think. Any other suggestions, do advice.

5. I'm thinking of doing some reads at the moment and is finding the information all too much. If you're intersted to share knowledge or share the learning burden with me, drop me a mail.

6. Lastly, if you do not know, bonus or rights issue do not improve your net gains although the quantity increase, the worth decreased. Don't get all happy about it.
__________________________________________________________________

Just sharing my current thoughts and situation with all of you.
If I'm wrong anywhere, let me know.
If you wanna share anything with me, drop me a mail, I'll reply. =)

Today marks the first time I mailed a company on their business. To test the water and their friendliness, I guess it turned out pretty well. Let me show you the test water questions I asked.
_________________________________________________________

Dear Sir,

I am looking through the FY07 report published on sgx.com and I do have a few enquiries. Hopefully, you can enlighted me on my doubts.

1. Aztech has just won a contract which deals with construction materials. Why is there this diversification from the core business of electronics? I am just concern of this diversification is due to the limitation in terms of earnings in the core business or it's a planned move by the management.

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Diversification is part of the Company growth plan. For the core business, we diversify by increasing our product line and our markets. This is an on-going, continuos effort. For the new business, the plan is to increase our revenue and bottomline from a new sector.

2. Why is it that the main stream of income has been changing between America, Europe and such. Is there no main market. So in this sense, since America is doing badly now, is the management expecting the sub prime to affect the earning power of the company?

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Our key markets have always been America, Europe and Asia, although the percentange may vary from year to year.

3. What is the intention of the shares buy-back by the management?

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] Share buy back is part of the Group's effort to enhance shareholder value. We buy back share and keep these share as treasury shares.

I am keen to know more as I am thinking of investing in the firm, just a retail investor.

Hopefully, you can clarify my doubts.

Not forgetting, would it be possible for me to receive the FY07 Annual Report. If so, how can I go about doing it.

[Pavani Nagarajah - PO] [Pavani Nagarajah - PO] We are in the midst of preparing FY07 annual report. A copy will be sent to all our registered shareholders. Also, once it is ready, it will be available on our website www.aztech.com

Regards
_______________________________________________________

Although the answers are quite plain and simple, at least I know they reply to queries. Now to prepare tougher question like their Margin squeeze and such. ha!

After 2 postings on the above company, I've decided to search for it's latest AR results and do a brief analysis on it. Nothing complicated, just some basic calculations and common sense, I'd say.

• In Operation since 1986.


• T/O has been pretty consistent over the last 3 years with an average growth of 21.3%

• Div Payout has been consistent

• Current Ratio can be improved but has been kept fairly constant at 1.7.


• The Net Profit reduction could be due to the increased Capital Expenditure on Non Current Assets.

• Question on my mind is the reduced EPS a results of the increase in the Pref Div Payout.

If so, then the reduction is not so bad afterall.

At least the shareholders are willing to take lesser for the investors to take back more. No?

_________________________________________________________

One thing to note is that the above calculations and analysis are just for sharing purposes only.

The information from which I obtain the data is not from the full Annual Report itself but the simplified version from sgx.com and aztech.com

Not forgetting the diversification plans which the management has for the company and the contract which it'd just won, which from the figures would increase their profit substantially.

I should be adding this to my position this week, probably.

Opinions/ Advice anyone?

A few postings ago, I mentioned about being tempted into getting this penny counter, Aztec.

I think I'd queue for it at 0.255, hopefully I'd get it and not have to chase it.

Pending breakout soon though, so worth keeping in the watchlist.

Anyway, the reason for me to get this counter is to have a long term interest in the company.

Dow Jones (US)

This is the most interesting chart amongst the four that I've posted.

1. Flag of 4 days were broken very well and a very quick rise was seen, however, from what I see, this rise has nothing to shout about. It is still playing within the resistance range and has yet to test the resistance created a few days ago. Perhaps, despite the unemployment rates and issues with their property sales, something has to happen to further excite the people before that resistance is breached, maybe we can see it soon, hopefully.

2. Circled out in light blue, is a technical sign whereby there is still a bearish signal, the drop basically wiped out the previous rise, all after Mr Ben's speach. Ha! What influence! Or are there other reasons?

3. However, Friday's closing was quite pleasing. I'm not sure if it can be considered a hammer formation but then, from that stick alone, it is probable that next week, we can see more green on this index, maybe! The last of such formation was seen, pointed out in a blue arrow, in mid Jan. Let's see what can happen next week.

Hang Seng (HK)